Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Patrick Mahomes Go Off in Week 3?
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Chicago Bears this Sunday. Will Patrick Mahomes go off in Week 3? NFL handicapper Matthew MacKay shares his Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs prediction and pick.
Matt MacKay - September 23, 2023, 2:00 PM EDT
7 minChicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick, Odds: Will Patrick Mahomes Go Off in Week 3?
It's been a disastrous start to the Chicago Bears' 2023 season, as Justin Fields has not looked the part through two games, while the defense is getting chewed up and spit out by a young Green Bay offense and the Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers.
Kansas City couldn't defend home field on banner night against Detroit in Week 1, playing without Travis Kelce, but the star tight end returned in Week 2 and scored a touchdown to bolster the Chiefs' passing attack, led by two-time MVP and Super Bowl MVP, Patrick Mahomes.
The Bears are massive underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, getting 12.5 points ATS and +570 moneyline odds. The point total is set to 48.5, with juice on the under, indicating this will be another game where Kansas City's defense stifles its opponent. Andy Reid is one of the league's best play callers, so against a Bears defense already dealing with injuries and poor play, this game sets up to be a long afternoon for Chicago to endure.
Fields could unleash the rushing upside we've been waiting on, but the Bears need to scheme up more plays to align with his strengths, while Fields needs to see the field better as a passer. Will the Bears continue to fail covering the spread, despite being massive 12.5-point underdogs? Or will the Chiefs win another low-scoring grind of a game like they did in Jacksonville last Sunday? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his prediction and pick for Bears vs. Chiefs.
Bears vs. Chiefs Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, September 24, 2023
- Game Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Bears vs. Chiefs Odds
- Spread: Bears +12.5 (-110), Chiefs -12.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 48.5 (-115), Over 48.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Bears (+570), Chiefs (-820)
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
Bears
Questionable: DB Eddie Jackson (Foot), WR Darnell Mooney (Knee)
Out: DB Kyler Gordon (Hand), OL Teven Jenkins (Leg)
Chiefs
Questionable: CB L'Jarius Sneed (Knee), LB Nick Bolton (Ankle), LB Willie Gay (Quad), WR Kadarius Toney (Toe), RB Isiah Pacheco (Hamstring)
Out: N/A
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
There's little incentive to wager the Chiefs' moneyline odds in this game, as they are reduced to -820 favorites at Arrowhead. The Bears have failed to cover ATS for five consecutive games, losing their last 12 SU.
Kansas City has gone under the point total line in eight of its last nine home games, which could easily happen again with one of the highest point total lines on the Week 3 NFL slate at 48.5. These opponents only play each other once every four years due to competing in different conferences, with the Chiefs last beating the Bears 26-3 on the road in Chicago.
While the total has gone over in six of the Bears' last seven road games, the under has cashed in all five of Chicago's games at Arrowhead. The Chiefs offense has only mustered 21 points and 17 points, respectively, while the Bears have hit 20 points and 17 points, respectively.
Chicago's run defense is sound, allowing under 200 rushing yards and two touchdowns against 45 carries, while its pass defense has been gashed for 554 yards and four touchdowns against less talented offenses compared to Kansas City. This means we're due to see several Chiefs players score an anytime touchdown. Yes, it's a crowded offense with a lot of developing talent outside of Kelce, but there's a lot of value to bet in this matchup.
Let's take Patrick Mahomes' alternate passing touchdowns line to record 3+ passing touchdowns at +134 odds against an anemic Chicago pass defense during his first massive outing of the 2023 NFL season.
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick
- Pick: Patrick Mahomes Alternate Passing TDs 3+ +134 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
NFL Odds
