Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can CJ Stroud, Texans Cover?
We have an AFC South matchup set in Week 3 between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans. Can CJ Stroud and the Texans cover? Matt MacKay breaks down the Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game.
Matt MacKay - September 23, 2023, 1:00 PM EDT
7 minHouston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can CJ Stroud, Texans Cover?
An AFC South matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is set for an early afternoon window from TIAA Bank Stadium in Jacksonville. The Texans won an ugly, low-scoring game, 13-6, with an impressive run from then-rookie running back Dameon Pierce, who scored the game's only touchdown.
This season, the Texans' running game has taken a back seat to its passing attack, thanks to the arrival of No. 2 overall draft pick, C.J. Stroud, who has recorded 533 passing yards and a 63.7 percent completion rate, favoring Nico Collins and rookie wideout Tank Dell as his top targets. Things are finally looking up for the Texans, despite an 0-2 start, while Jacksonville's hype from last season has begun to dry up.
The Jacksonville offensive line was dominated by the Chiefs at home in Week 2, while the Jaguars' passing attack has wideout Calvin Ridley beefing up the options for Trevor Lawrence to target downfield. Despite this addition, the Jaguars are 16th in passing offense, recording two touchdowns through the air, both against the Colts in Week 1. The rushing attack has been even worse, ranking 24th in total rushing yards (179) and two touchdowns. The Chiefs forced the Jaguars to settle for three field goals in a 17-9 Week 2 loss.
Can the Texans find a way to manufacture another upset against a divisional rival? Or will Lawrence and the Jags get back into a rhythm? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his latest prediction and pick for Texans vs. Jaguars.
Texans vs. Jaguars Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, September 24, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Texans vs. Jaguars Odds
- Spread: Texans +8.5 (-110), Jaguars -8.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 44.5 (-105), Over 44.5 (-115)
- Moneyline Odds: Texans (+310), Jaguars (-390)
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Injury Report
Texans
Questionable: CB Derek Stingley Jr. (Hamstring), LB Denzel Perryman (Hand), S Jalen Pitre (Lung), OT Laremy Tunsil (Knee)
Out: C Juice Scruggs (Hamstring), G Kenyon Green (Shoulder)
Jaguars
Questionable: LB Josh Allen (Shoulder), WR Zay Jones (Knee)
Out: N/A
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
Houston already has a lot of injuries piling up, particularly on defense, but its offense can hang around. Jacksonville's defense has allowed the tenth-most passing yards, relying on its run defense to contain opposing offenses. This plays right into the Texans' strength as an improved passing team with Stroud under center.
The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread as home favorites for seven straight games. 8.5 points is a lot to lay, plus the Texans have recorded five straight wins as road underdogs against AFC South opponents. Until Jacksonville won 31-3 in Week 17 last year, the Texans had won four games SU against the Jaguars.
If there's one thing limiting Houston from winning games, it's the run defense, which has allowed six rushing touchdowns, tied for most in the league. It also ranks 12th for most rushing yards allowed, so Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby could have big days in the Jaguars' backfield.
Let's take the biggest lock in this game, although it's not a bad idea to sprinkle a unit on the Texans' +310 moneyline odds, as they are 9-1 SU in its last ten games against Jacksonville, including 5-0 SU on the road. +8.5 is a number Houston has yet to cover during its two losses, but this is a spot where the Texans can compete until the final whistle. Let's place several units on Stroud and the Houston offense to go into Jacksonville and cover as 8.5-point underdogs.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick
- Pick: Houston +8.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
NFL Odds
