Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can TJ Watt, Steelers Shut Down CJ Stroud?
Two of the AFC's most underrated teams will meet in Week 4 as the Houston Texans host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Can TJ Watt and the Steelers shut down CJ Stroud? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay shares his latest prediction and pick for Steelers vs. Texans.
Matt MacKay - September 29, 2023, 1:23 PM EDT
7 minPittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can TJ Watt, Steelers Shut Down CJ Stroud?
Two of the AFC's most underrated teams will meet at NRG Stadium in Houston Week 4 as the Houston Texans host the Pittsburgh Steelers. These opponents don't play often, with their last head-to-head matchup occurring back in 2020, when the Steelers won 28-21 at home.
C.J. Stroud and Kenny Pickett are both quarterbacks with a lot to prove. Pickett is in his second year in the league, and while his stats aren't good, the Steelers' signal caller simply finds ways to win games. Using his mobility and a strong arm, Pickett made enough plays against Las Vegas on the road to win in primetime, which he's done twice this season. Stroud, the No. 2 overall draft pick this offseason, has been an immediate upgrade to the Texans' offense. Currently, Stroud is sixth in passing yards (906), while tied sixth for most pass attempts with Justin Herbert at 121 through the first three weeks of the season.
Houston just routed Jacksonville on the road in a divisional matchup 37-17, as Stroud has continued to establish a rapport with fellow rookie wideout, Tank Dell, whose speed and route running have opened up the Texans' passing attack. Nico Collins has also been another favorite target for Stroud, while even veteran wideout Robert Woods III is feasting on intermediate targets.
Pittsburgh's defense has been stout, at least up front, but its pass defense has surrendered big plays downfield, resulting in five receiving touchdowns and 706 receiving yards, which are 11th and 13th most respectively. Stroud could go off once again, while Pickett and the Steelers' offense are still searching for their identity.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest prediction and pick for an AFC interdivisional matchup between the Steelers vs. Texans.
Steelers vs. Texans Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Steelers vs. Texans Odds
- Spread: Steelers -3 (-102), Texans +3 (-120)
- Total Odds: Under 41.5 (-105), Over 41.5 (-115)
- Moneyline Odds: Steelers (-148), Texans (+126)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Injury Report
Steelers
Questionable: TE Darnell Washington (Knee), DT Larry Ogunjobi (Foot)
Out: DT Cameron Heyward (Groin), WR Diontae Johnson (Hamstring)
Texans
Questionable: G Shaq Mason (Ankle), C Michael Deiter (Chest), LB Denzel Perryman (Hand)
Doubtful: OT Laremy Tunsil (Knee), OT Josh Jones (Hand)
Out: CB Derek Stingley Jr. (Hamstring), DT Hassan Ridgeway (Calf), WR Noah Brown (Groin), C Juice Scruggs (Hamstring), C Shane Quessenbery (Knee)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Prediction
Houston has been playing good football without the majority of its offensive line intact and it will likely continue to be this way in Week 4 based off of the latest injury updates. Insert T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, two of the best edge rushers and linebackers in the league, and suddenly, this matchup becomes even more intriguing.
Stroud has been sacked 11 times this season, ranked seventh-highest, and the Steelers rank first in sacks recorded with 13 entering Week 4. This could be a game where the Texans attempt to establish their running game a bit more than we've seen with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary to eliminate the obvious drop back passing scenarios to protect Stroud while not falling into third and long. As of right now, Houston is ranked bottom-five in rushing yards (210) despite attempting more runs than 12 other teams in the league.
Pittsburgh's offense has produced explosive plays in its recent games with wideouts George Pickens and Calvin Austin III, so facing a depleted Texans secondary, perhaps Pickett and maligned OC Matt Canada can dial up some more aggressive play calling downfield. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have both struggled to get going in the running game, with poor run blocking up front from the Steelers' offensive line.
In fact, the Steelers and Texans are both averaging 3.2 YPC or worse this season, firmly in the bottom five. The passing attack should be on full display for both teams, as each defense has quality players along their defensive line.
From a betting trends perspective, the Texans have lost each of its last eight home games, while the Steelers have covered ATS in five consecutive road games. Oddsmakers have Pittsburgh as three-point favorites ATS on the road in this matchup, with a point total line set at 41.5, with -115 odds on the over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh has won nine consecutive road games against AFC South opponents, while covering ATS in seven straight games against the AFC South division. Three points feels like a lot to cover in a game with a low point total, so let's put a couple of units on the team with more continuity and experience, by wagering the Pittsburgh Steelers' moneyline odds at -148 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline (-148 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds.
NFL Odds
