Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, Pick, Odds: How Will Alvin Alvin Kamara Look In Return?
One of the most intense divisional rivalries in the NFL is set for Week 4 as the New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. How will Alvin Kamara look in his return from suspension? Matt MacKay provides his prediction and pick for Buccaneers vs. Saints.
Matt MacKay - October 1, 2023, 11:59 AM EDT
7 minTampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, Pick, Odds: How Will Alvin Alvin Kamara Look In Return?
One of the most intense divisional rivalries in the NFL is set for Week 4 as the New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Oddsmakers have the Saints favored at -3.5 ATS, despite the ACL sprain keeping quarterback Derek Carr out of the lineup, replaced by Jameis Winston. Winston saw the Saints' 17-point fourth quarter lead erode in Week 3, while the Buccaneers finally came back to reality in a 25-11 loss in prime time to Philadelphia.
Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston should provide a highly entertaining matchup for us on Sunday afternoon in the Caesars Superdome. The Buccaneers have continued to feed wideout Mike Evans downfield and in the red zone, despite contract extension talks that stalled for the big-bodied wideout this offseason. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay's RB1, has no competition for touches, and he's looked decent through the first three weeks, but he'll face a tough task against a Saints' run defense allowing under 300 total rushing yards and one touchdown through three games.
Meanwhile, the Saints get star running back Alvin Kamara back from suspension, which should immediately boost their offense despite a Bucs' defense ranked top-12 in rushing yards allowed, surrendering 3.9 YPC. Historically, we've seen these NFC South divisional matchups between the Bucs and Saints go way under the point total line, which is why oddsmakers at FanDuel have set the point total at 39.5 points, one of the lowest totals on the Week 4 slate.
Will Mayfield and the Bucs bounce back in their first divisional game? Or will the Saints improve to 2-0 against the NFC South, returning home after two consecutive weeks on the road? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his latest prediction and pick for Buccaneers vs. Saints.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds
- Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 (-110), Saints -3.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 39.5 (110), Over 39.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Buccaneers (+160), Saints (-188)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Injury Report
Buccaneers
Probable: CB Carlton Davis III (Toe)
Questionable: DL Vita Vea (Pectoral), LB Devin White (Foot), DL Calijah Kancey (Calf), CB Jamel Dean (Shoulder)
Out: RB Chase Edmonds (Knee), C Ryan Jensen (Knee), WR Russell Gage (Knee)
Saints
Questionable: CB Jordan Howden (Finger), TE Foster Moreau (Ankle), C Cesar Ruiz (Concussion), CB Paulson Adebo (Hamstring)
Out: QB Derek Carr (Shoulder), RB Jamaal Williams (Hamstring), S Marcus Maye (Suspension),
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
Tampa Bay and New Orleans are two of the lowest scoring offenses to start the 2023 NFL season, each recording 58 or fewer total points. The Saints have a strong wide receiving corps that carried them to a 2-1 record to start the season, which could've been 3-0 prior to a late missed field goal during a fourth quarter meltdown in Lambeau Field last weekend.
Kamara's return, complimented by rookie running back Kendre Miller, could rejuvenate the Saints offense with Winston under center. We all know Winston isn't afraid to take his shots downfield, so Chris Olave and Michael Thomas should see some nice production against a Tampa Bay pass defense allowing 6.4 net yards per pass attempt, ninth most in the league.
Betting trends correlate the Saints with the under, as each of their last nine games have gone under the total points line. However, this line is set to 39.5, which is tough to confidently wager an under this low. Each of the three previous head-to-head matchups has finished with 33 total points or less, so we could be due to see a spike in offensive production.
New Orleans has won each of its last eight games played in October against divisional opponents and Tampa Bay hasn't covered the spread in six of its last seven road games. They did go into Minnesota in Week 1 and pull off the upset outright, albeit against a much worse defensive unit than the Saints roster. Mayfield and Evans have shown strong rapport, while the rushing attack only flourished against the porous Chicago Bears in Week 2.
I like the Saints' alternate spread at -2.5 with -158 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. We could see a potentially close game, likely low-scoring, with a late field goal determining the winner. Winning by three is much easier to wager than winning by four, which is where oddsmakers have the Saints currently, set at -3.5 with -110 odds. Yes, it's more vig to pay, but this is still a good multi-unit wager to place during Sunday's Week 4 NFL slate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Pick
- Pick: New Orleans Saints Alternate Spread -2.5 -158 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
NFL Odds
