Thursday Night Football Prediction: Can We Trust Justin Fields, Bears on TNF?
The Bears have gotten off to an 0-4 start and it has not been pretty in Chicago to say the least. Can Justin Fields and this Bears offense put together a solid showing in DC tonight on primetime? Let's break it down.
Joey Ruiz - October 5, 2023, 4:18 PM EDT
7 minThursday Night Football Prediction: Can We Trust Justin Fields, Bears on TNF?
The Bears were riding high for much of the afternoon last Sunday against the Broncos as they held a lead for most of that game, but all was for not as the Broncos turned around all the momentum after returning a fumble for a touchdown in the fourth quarter and didn't look back as they won by a score of 31-28. This was such a bittersweet game for the Bears as their offensive unit was finally clicking on all cylinders as they put up 28 points for a season high and 471 total yards of offense.
Bears vs. Commanders Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 5, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Justin Fields in particular had one of the better games of his career as he threw for 335 yards on 28-35 passing for 4 touchdowns and a QB Rating on the day of 132.7. Sadly though, all people will remember is that the Bears lost, and it was in large part due to Fields' critical fumble late in the game. There are always lessons to be learned and positive takeaways though and one of them was that Justin Fields is still capable of throwing the ball at a high level in the NFL.
Another is that Khalil Herbert is a real threat on the ground as he averaged 5.7 yards per carry and put up 122 total yards and a touchdown. The Commanders have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run to this point as they are ranked 26th in yards allowed per rush to this point. They are allowing their opponents to rush for 4.5 yards per tote and even the quarterbacks that the Commanders have faced have had a lot of success on the ground against them.
Jalen Hurts and D'Andre Swift combined for 90 total rushing yards, Josh Allen and James Cook combined for 144 yards on eight YPC, and Russell Wilson/Javonte Williams tallied 100 yards on just under six yards per carry. The bottom line is that the Bears are not a good team, but they do have the pieces and talent in place to run the ball effectively against this bad Commander's run defense.
The Commanders are also quickly emerging as a team who plays down or up to their competition. In Week 1 they were seven-point favorites against the Cardinals at home, like they are tonight, and ended up trailing for a majority of that game as they were losing at halftime before mounting a fourth quarter comeback to win 20-16. They then overcame a 21-3 deficit as four-point underdogs to the Broncos to win on the road 35-33.
Flashback to last week and they were ten-point underdogs against the Eagles and had them on the ropes for much of the afternoon and even took them to overtime on the road. Starting to see a pattern? They have played very well as road underdogs and have severely underperformed in their two home games against the Bills and Cardinals as they lost to the Bills at home 37-3 (failing to cover by 25 points) and narrowly beat the Cardinals, who were widely considered the worst team in the league entering week 1, by a score of 20-16 (failing to cover by three points).
The Bears are likely due for another long season based on what we have seen to this point, but I do think this is an all world's collide spot for Chicago to put together a solid performance and I think this game should be close and come down to the wire. I would not be shocked if the Bears won this game straight up but with that being said, I am rolling with Bears +6.5 at -113 for 1.5u as my most confident NFL play of the day for tonight's action as I think Justin Fields does enough to win or keep this game within one score.
Thursday Night Football Pick
1.5u Bears +6.5 -113 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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