Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Joe Burrow, Bengals Bounce Back?
The Arizona Cardinals host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Can Joe Burrow and the Bengals bounce back? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives his prediction and pick for Bengals vs. Cardinals.
Matt MacKay - October 6, 2023, 12:03 PM EDT
7 minCincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Joe Burrow, Bengals Bounce Back?
Cincinnati and Arizona have shocked NFL pundits and handicappers' preseason expectations, with the Bengals struggling to get going at 1-3, while the Arizona Cardinals have looked competitive in every single game played, facing some of the leagues top teams.
Quarterback Joe Burrow's health has been the focal point of the Bengals' woes, nursing a calf injury sustained back in training camp. A brutal 27-3 loss against the Titans in Week 4 was another surprise for Cincinnati, as they have historically dominated Tennessee in head-to-head matchups. The offensive line surrendered three sacks and the Titans' continuous pressure kept Burrow from connecting with star wideout Ja'Marr Chase, who looked dominant during the Bengals' Week 4 win over the Rams.
Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals' offense have looked smooth and efficient, despite also carrying a 1-3 record into this Week 5 home game in the Desert. Dobbs is completing over 70 percent of his pass attempts, throwing four touchdowns and zero interceptions, despite facing the Cowboys and 49ers during the last two weeks. James Conner is an efficient RB1 and Marquise Brown and rookie wideout Michael Wilson form an underrated tandem for Dobbs to target all over the field.
Arizona has zero expectations and plays hard, so all of the pressure is on the Bengals to get their first road win to avoid a 1-4 start in a competitive AFC North division. Can Burrow lead the Bengals to a much-needed bounce back win? Or will Dobbs and the Cardinals continue to defy expectations and log another impressive win at home against Cincinnati? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his prediction and pick for Bengals vs. Cardinals.
Bengals vs. Cardinals Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023
- Game Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Bengals vs. Cardinals Odds
- Spread: Bengals -3 (-112), Cardinals +3 (-108)
- Total Odds: Under 44.5 (-106), Over 44.5 (-114)
- Moneyline Odds: Bengals (-172), Cardinals (+144)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Injury Report
Bengals
Probable: TE Irv Smith Jr. (Hamstring)
Questionable: OT Orlando Brown Jr. (Groin), WR Tee Higgins (Ribs)
Out: N/A
Cardinals
Probable: OL Kelvin Beachum (Hand)
Questionable: OL William Hernandez (Back), OL Hjalte Froholdt (Neck),
Out: QB Kyler Murray (Knee), S Budda Baker (Hamstring), DL L.J. Collier (Bicep)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction
Cincinnati's defense has played poorly, which is another surprise. The Bengals are ranked bottom-eight in the league for pressure percentage (19.3%) and bottom-five in hurry percentage (4.1%) despite recording 12 sacks, which is top-12 in the league.
Arizona's offensive line is banged up a bit but they are still allowing only a 4.7 percent sack rate, which is sixth-best amongst any offensive line unit through four games played. Dobbs doesn't commit turnovers and takes what the defense gives him, while Conner remains a rock solid running back, as the Cardinals are averaging 5.3 YPC, second-highest in the league. This lets them move the ball downfield effectively, while chewing clock and keeping opponents off the field.
Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games. They enter Glendale as -3 ATS. Conversely, Arizona is 3-1 ATS, continuing to fight hard and either lose close games or win outright, which came at home against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. Both of the Bengals' previous road games have resulted in 24-3 and 27-3 losses, which is pretty discouraging. The Bengals' defense is allowing a 5 percent touchdown rate on pass attempts, ranked eighth most in the league. Arizona is slightly better at 3.9 percent.
Even the Bengals' rushing defense is bad, surrendering 5.1 YPC, but only three rushing touchdowns. Arizona is allowing 4.4 YPC, which isn't great either, with a whopping seven rushing touchdowns in comparison. This means Joe Mixon should get the ball early and often to open up the Bengals' passing attack. The Cardinals are allowing a 69.8 percent completion rate, eighth-worst in the league, while the Bengals are at 63.6 percent, so they could force the Cardinals to go into a run-heavy approach as well.
It's a bit juiced, but we need to take the Bengals' moneyline odds at -172 on FanDuel. They are the more desperate team and draw a relatively soft matchup against the Cardinals' defense. This is safer than taking the Bengals -3 ATS, as they are 0-3-1 ATS this year and haven't covered in five straight games. Burrow and the Bengals escape State Farm Stadium with a hard-fought win.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline -172 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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