Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Brock Purdy, 49ers Run Up the Score?
One of the classic historical NFC rivalries is set between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. Can Brock Purdy and the 49ers run up the score?
Matt MacKay - October 6, 2023, 1:28 PM EDT
7 minDallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Brock Purdy, 49ers Run Up the Score?
One of the classic historical NFC rivalries is set between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. We've seen these teams go head-to-head in the playoffs for two consecutive years, as the 49ers have managed to win both games outright, including a 19-12 win in Santa Clara, California, last postseason.
Dallas will hit the road for the third time in five games, where they routed the Giants, 40-0, while dropping a game as 12.5 point favorites ATS against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, the 49ers are among the most potent offenses in the league yet again, relying on the high passing efficiency of second-year quarterback, Brock Purdy, and the MVP-caliber play of star running back Christian McCaffery to force defenses into a tough spot.
Then Cowboys lost Trevon Diggs in their secondary, but Micah Parsons continues to be a game-wrecker up front for Dallas, so this will be a fun matchup to watch while wrapping up Sunday's Week 5 NFL slate. Can the Cowboys finally overcome the 49ers in this matchup? Or will San Francisco and head coach Kyle Shanahan scheme up another flawless game plan to continue their undefeated start to the 2023 season? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay shares his latest prediction and pick for Cowboys vs. 49ers.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023
- Game Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: NBC
Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds
- Spread: Cowboys +3.5 (-110), 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 45 (-110), Over 45 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Cowboys (+154), 49ers (-184)
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Injury Report
Cowboys
Questionable: LB Micah Parsons (Knee), S Malik Hooker (Shoulder)
Out: CB Trevon Diggs (Knee)
49ers
Questionable: CB Charvarius Ward (Heel), LB Dre Greenlaw (Ankle), WR Deebo Samuel (Ribs, Knee), RB Elijah Mitchell (Knee), WR Jauan Jennings (Shin)
Out: N/A
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
Trends are all over the 49ers in this game. San Francisco has won each of its last 14 regular season games, covering the spread in each of its last 13 home games against NFC opponents. Dallas' advantage is its defense, which is ranked second in touchdown percentage on pass attempts at 1.9 percent. Purdy struggled against the pressure the Cowboys brought in the NFC Divisional Round game a year ago, with Dallas dropping multiple bad passes that could've been game-changing interceptions.
Dallas is also ranked second in sack percentage at 11.5 percent, while the 49ers are all the way down at 4.9 percent, ranked 28th in the league. Both defenses are middle of the pack in pressure percentage, however, the 49ers are significantly better in hurry percentage (11.9%), versus Dallas, which ranks bottom-12 at 6.6 percent. Both defensive units have allowed 58 total points or less this season, ranking them both in the top-five for this metric.
San Francisco's offense has been executed flawlessly by Purdy, as the 49ers are ranked 12th in touchdown percentage on pass attempts (4.5%) compared to just 2.9% from Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Tony Pollard was injured in this game last year, but he gets a tough matchup for running backs, as the 49ers have allowed 3.9 YPC and only two rushing touchdowns in four games this season.
Prescott's turnover woes haven't stopped, but CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson could be the solution. The 49ers are ranked 16th in completion percentage allowed at 65.7 percent, surrendering four touchdowns, but ranking eigth in interception percentage (2.9%), so Prescott will need to make better decisions and improve his accuracy. Lamb and Ferguson have been his favorite targets thus far, and they should win some one-on-one matchups, as long as the Cowboys' running game lets them run a balanced game plan, opening up receivers downfield.
Oddsmakers anticipate a tight game, as the 49ers are laying 2.5 points ATS and -184 moneyline odds. The point total line is the best wager to make, as it's set to an even 45 points, meaning we could get a push. However, this should go under. Dallas will dial up pressure to affect Purdy in the pocket like they did last year, while doing enough to keep McCaffery from rattling off a multi-touchdown outing, surrendering only two rushing touchdowns this season despite 4.6 YPC. Under 45 is the wager to place, which has cashed in both previous head-to-head playoff matchups. None of Dallas' games have gone over 45 points this season, while San Francisco has hit over 45 twice, including last week's 35-16 win over Arizona.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick
- Pick: Under 45 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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