Monday Night Football Player Prop Pick: Can AJ Dillon Produce on MNF?
Monday Night Football Player Prop Pick: Can AJ Dillon Produce on MNF?
The Las Vegas Raiders host the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football in Allegiant Stadium tonight in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders have started their season 1-3 but played last week without Jimmy Garropolo, who missed the game in concussion protocol. The Packers are entering this game 2-2 after a loss to Detroit last week. The Packers have had a long time off, as they played on Thursday night in Week 4. Which team will bounce back in Week 5?
Packers vs. Raiders Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date:Â October 9, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
Despite a mini bye week and 10 days off, it looks like Aaron Jones is doubtful for this game with a hamstring injury. Jones played in Week 1, then came back and played last week in Week 4, but he was limited by his injury. He only had five carries and played 35% of the team's offensive snaps. Jones was limited in practice all week, and after entering today with a questionable tag, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network tweeted a few hours ago and said Jones is expected to NOT play tonight.
Obviously, this is pretty big news for a few reasons. One is that Jones is the most veteran player on the Green Bay offense, and his presence builds a solid backfield. The second is that AJ Dillon has not been producing this season on his own. AJ Dillon has just 118 rushing yards this season, despite being healthy this season and playing in more than 50% of snaps in all four games. He is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry this season, and he has not looked good so far. However, without Aaron Jones, he will be the primary back again, and the Packers will need him in this game.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense is not easily attacked through the air. The Raiders rank 12th in passing yards allowed per game at 202 and seventh in passing attempts allowed at 30.8 per game. However, they are beatable up front. They are 25th in rushing yards allowed per game with 134.2 this season.
That being said, my favorite bet is NOT Dillon's rushing yards, but Dillon's receiving yards. Yes, it sounds weird because he has not been used as a receiver much this season. He only has three receptions total in four games this year. However, last year, he was used as a receiver more, averaging 12.1 receiving yards per game overall, and that was with a fully healthy Aaron Jones. AJ Dillon had four games last season where he played in 58% or more of offensive snaps, and in all four, he had 10 or more receiving yards. Tonight, AJ Dillon is set at 9.5 receiving yards.
Dillon has not found his groove on the ground yet this season. His longest rush is 14 yards, and his highest yardage game is 55 on the ground, with or without Jones. For this reason, I think the Packers will look to get him going through the air with some screen plays or some short routes on early downs. Dillon is not a bad running back, but he has not gotten it going yet. He had 17 receiving yards with two receptions in Week 1, but he has not been targeted more than twice in total since then.
I think they revisit Dillon as a receiver in this game. This prop isn't even available on every book because he has been such an afterthought in the receiving game, but DraftKings, BetMGM, and Bet365 all have this line up. Dillon is also -125 to go over 1.5 receptions, which I also love, but Dillon could honestly hit his receiving yards on just one reception. It's my favorite play tonight.
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Pick
Pick: AJ Dillon Over 9.5 Receiving Yards -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Win a $25 Gift Card on Monday Night Football
Think you know what's going to happen on Monday Night Football when the Green Bay Packers take on the Las Vegas Raiders? Answer the pick questions below for your chance to win a $25 Amazon gift card!
NFL Odds
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.