Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick: Will Kadarius Toney Have a Big Night on TNF?
The Chiefs host the Broncos for NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football. Will Kadaruis Toney have a big night on TNF? Josh Gayle shares his pick.
Josh Gayle - October 11, 2023, 1:44 PM EDT
5 minDenver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick: Will Kadarius Toney Have a Big Night on TNF?
We are attacking a new market for us in the Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs game.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 12, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick
1u - Kadarius Toney u15.5 Longest Reception -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
This is a market we have to bet this year, but I dig this bet for quite a few reasons. Last week we finally lost our first TNF pick and I am hungry to bounce back from that and get back in the win column. Allow me to explain why this goofy market is our best bet on Thursday.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Kadarius Toney is a guy with an abundance of skill, the question will always be if he can put it together and become a reliable NFL receiver. He has played 15 games as a Chief if you include last years playoffs and he has hit failed to have a reception of 16+ in 12 of them. This bet has an 80% hit rate in Chiefs uniform, not too bad for -110.
Additionally, this game projects to have 15+ MPH winds so the offenses may look for short gains to lower risk the chance of interceptions. Toney has a shockingly low ADOT of 2.53. For those who don’t know that stands for average depth of target. He just isn’t being utilized as a vertical threat right now.
The only way I see this bet losing is a short pass where defenders completely whiff. Kansas City being a double digit favorite makes me confident that there won’t be much fourth quarter deep balls if the game goes according to plan. Denver is a very prone team to the run game so I hope it’s just a Isiah Pacheco night and he goes nuclear. All in all, this is a -110 bet with an 80% hit rate. Other guys like Rashee Rice and Justin Watson deserve more playing time anyway, would be fun to with this one due to him playing few snaps as well. Let's roll!
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