Thursday Night Football Prediction: Can Russell Wilson, Broncos Keep This TNF Game Close?
The Broncos have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season as they come into this match up with the Chiefs with a record of just 1-4. Can they put together a solid effort tonight? Let’s break it down.
Joey Ruiz - October 12, 2023, 1:01 PM EDT
7 minThursday Night Football Prediction: Can Russell Wilson, Broncos Keep This TNF Game Close?
Many people in the off-season thought that head coach, Sean Payton was going to be the answer to the Broncos prayers after a very tough season last year under first year head coach, Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett was criticized frequently last year for his game management, and questionable situational playcalling but things have not been much better this season under Peyton as the Broncos have a historically bad defense through five games. Last season, the problem was the complete opposite.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 12, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Last year, the Broncos defense was an elite group who frequently held teams under 20 points, but simply could not score. This season, Russell Wilson and the Broncos are allowing points left and right to everyone as they allowed 70 to the Dolphins, 31 to the Jets, 28 to the Bears, and 35 to the Commanders. Other than the Dolphins, those aren’t exactly elite NFL offenses so the fact that the Broncos allowed so many points to those subpar offenses is very concerning.
Things do not get much easier for the Broncos tonight as they have to face Patrick Mahomes and a very solid Chiefs squad on the road. While Patrick Mahomes is still as electric as ever, this Chiefs offense hasn’t been running as smoothly as we have seen it in the past. Travis Kelce has dealt with a number of injuries so far already through the first five games, and the rest of the Chiefs receiving core has been average at best. Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, and Rashee Rice simply have not stepped up this season, but Patrick Mahomes has been good enough to elevate them to a 4-1 record, and really should be undefeated if not for Kadarius Toney’s key drops in Week 1.
While Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are essentially an NFL juggernaut no matter who Mahomes is throwing the ball to, they have not been that great at covering huge spreads under Mahomes over the past few seasons. We saw in their game against the Jets where they were nine point favorites on the road and got out to a 17 to 0 lead and coasted a bit and allowed the Jets to actually tie the game after being down 17-0. While it is very scary to bet against Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and this Chiefs team as a whole there are a few key reasons why it can be profitable.
Mahomes is the absolute master at running a five to eight minute drive to kill the clock, late in games to salt them away. Mahomes is also one of the most heads up players in the NFL as we saw in the Jets game where he took a knee at the one yard line to essentially end the game. Chiefs backers were very upset with this as they wanted Mahomes to score but the reality of it is that Mahomes made the right decision to end the game.
Last year we saw Nick Chubb score a meaningless touchdown to go up by 13 points with very little time in the ball game where he could’ve taken a knee and ended it. Instead he scored and the Jets were able to score two touchdowns in under two minutes to win the game so there is a precedent for going down at the one and taking a knee instead of scoring a meaningless touchdown just to pad the stats.
We did see the Chiefs blow out the Bears a few weeks ago with a similar spread to this game but overall the Bears were a dumpster fire at that point and really had not shown any signs of life. While the Broncos do come into this game with a record of 1-4 straight up, they have pretty much been in every single game as they lost to the Raiders by one point, lost to the Commanders by two points, lost to the Jets by ten, which was aided by a defensive touchdown in the final minute of the game, and then there’s the 50 point drumming by the Dolphins.
Other than the Chiefs 41 to 10 win over the Bears, their margin of victory in the other four games has been just over four total points so they have been involved in some very close games this season. While it is scary to bet on the Broncos in this spot, I do believe they play up on prime time today and this line is a bit too inflated based on the Broncos recent play. With that being said, I am rolling with Broncos +11 at -112 for 1.5U as my most confident NFL play of the day for tonight’s action as I think Denver keeps this game close.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick
1.5u Broncos +11 -112 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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