Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Joe Burrow, Bengals Extend Win Streak?
On Sunday Night Football, we have rematch between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals for NFL Week 9. Can Joe Burrow and the Bengals extend their win streak? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives his prediction and pick for the Bills vs. Bengals.
Matt MacKay - November 3, 2023, 10:09 AM EDT
7 minBuffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Joe Burrow, Bengals Extend Win Streak?
The NFL is gifting us with another rematch between Buffalo and Cincinnati in prime time to wrap up Sunday's Week 9 slate.
Joe Burrow and Josh Allen met in the AFC Divisional Round a year ago up in Buffalo, where the Bengals shut down the Bills' offense in a 27-10 rout. Now, Cincinnati, fresh off of a momentous 31-17 road win over the 49ers, gets to host the Bills, aiming to build off of their three-game winning streak.
Buffalo's season has been very up-and-down, with more bad than good lately. Yes, they managed to avoid an upset against the Buccaneers at home last Thursday, but the Bills' inability to establish the run has once again made them into a one-dimensional offense. Perhaps this is why they opted to sign running back Leonard Fournette, adding depth behind James Cook and Latavius Murray.
Oddsmakers anticipate a close game between these two teams at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday night, with the Bengals getting a slight edge at -1.5 ATS and -126 moneyline odds. Will Burrow and the Bengals successfully defend home field and extend their winning streak to four games? Or will the Bills overcome their turnovers and one-dimensional offense to win on the road for the first time since Week 3?
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to give his latest prediction and pick between the Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
Bills vs. Bengals Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 5, 2023
- Game Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: NBC
Bills vs. Bengals Odds
- Spread: Bills +1.5 (-105), Bengals -1.5 (-115)
- Total Odds: Under 49.5 (-110), Over 49.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Bills (+108), Bengals (-126)
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Injury Report
Bills
Probable: QB Josh Allen (Shoulder), TE Quinton Morris (Ankle)
Questionable: S Damar Hamlin (Illness),
Out: CB Kaiir Elam (Ankle), TE Dawson Knox (Wrist), RB Damien Harris (Neck), LB Matt Milano (Leg), CB Tre' White (Achilles)
Bengals
Probable: RB Joe Mixon (Chest)
Questionable: OT Orlando Brown Jr. (Groin), DE Trey Hendrickson (Ankle), LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Knee)
Out: N/A
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
Both teams have suffered key injuries through eight weeks of the 2023 season, but Buffalo is trending downward at the wrong time. After gaining a sizable lead over Tampa Bay, the Bills wound up allowing the Bucs to mount a huge drive to fail covering the spread, while also allowing Baker Mayfield to nearly pull off a Hail Mary attempt on the final play.
Cincinnati has been heating up lately, recording three straight wins against NFC West opponents. Now, they host the Bills, which is quickly turning into an AFC rivalry game. The Bengals only scored 17 points against Seattle during their last home game played in Week 7, while the Bills lost their last road game outright to New England, 29-25, a couple of weeks ago.
Buffalo's defense has failed to force turnovers in two of the past three games, while Cincinnati has forced eight turnovers during its recent three-game stretch. The Bengals' offense has only committed one turnover per game or less, while Joe Burrow is heating up at the right time, logging over 265 passing yards in two of their past three wins. Ja'Marr Chase is all the way back and gets a good matchup against a Bills secondary that is depleted, while surrendering 24-25 points to Tampa Bay and New England's bottom-tier offenses.
Joe Mixon will be the key to beating Buffalo. The Bills have been better against the run, although the Patriots and Bucs don't have much of a rushing attack to boast about. Prior to this two-week sample, the Bills had allowed over 100 total rushing yards in four straight games. If they allow Mixon to do what he did against the 49ers last week, converting 16 carries into 87 yards and a touchdown, plus three receptions for 23 yards, it'll be a long night for the Bills' defense.
Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd have done a good job reminding us about the depth of talent in Cincinnati's wide receiving corps lately, so facing a banged up Bills secondary that has allowed over 250 passing yards in three of its past five games provides Burrow with a lot of good opportunities to move the ball with efficiency downfield.
Trends suggest that the Bills will cover as +1.5 ATS since the Bengals have failed to cover the spread in four of their past five home games, while losing outright to four consecutive AFC opponents. Of course, each of the last four games between the Bills and Bengals has gone under the point total line, currently set to 49.5.
Cincinnati has scored 24 or fewer points at home in all three games played this year. Buffalo has also regressed, failing to score more than 25 points in four consecutive games after scoring 38-37-48 against the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins. The Bengals' defense is aggressive and opportunistic at forcing turnovers, but they do bleed plenty of passing yards. Allen should be able to move the ball and sustain drives. This leads to the narrative of the under cashing at 49.5 total points. Prime time unders have been hot this year, plus the Bengals' home games are only averaging 38.7 total points, well below this mark, so let's wager a unit on under 49.5 total points in this highly anticipated AFC matchup.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pick
- Pick: Under 49.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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NFL Odds
