Week 10 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 10 of the NFL Season?
In NFL Week 9 we saw the Browns blank the Cardinals and the Eagles narrowly escaped the Cowboys. Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - November 8, 2023, 3:19 PM EST
9 minWeek 10 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 10 of the NFL Season?
For those of you who read this article each week, thank you, we hope you enjoyed the 4-0 sweep we manifested ahead of the NFL Week 9 slate. That's right, our NFL picks went undefeated in Week 9. Let's perform a quick recap of our successful betting endeavors to provide some context before moving into the best NFL picks to wager on a Week 10 slate filled with value.
The Steelers took it down to the wire, as they so often do, but Pittsburgh managed to beat Will Levis and the Titans 20-16, covering -2.5 ATS with a late interception to seal the win. The point total line sat at 50.5 for Miami and Kansas City, but both defenses were playing too well for that over to hit. After a quick 14-0 start by Kansas City, the rest of the game in Frankfurt turned into a defensive battle, ending 21-14 to log a relatively sweat-free win for our second pick of the Week 9 slate.
Baltimore dominated Seattle from start to finish, so taking their odds at -5.5 ATS was a slam dunk, but we opted to sweat it out the hard way. Seattle thankfully mustered a lone field goal to keep the point total from going over 42.5 total points, cashing the under in a 37-3 rout of the Seahawks. Our last NFL pick was on America's Game of the Week, Dallas vs. Philadelphia, which lived up to the hype. Jalen Hurts finally earned his first head-to-head win over Dak Prescott in a back-and-forth contest that provided plenty of explosive plays from both teams, easily cashing over 46 total points with a final score of 28-23.
Let's ride this heater into Week 10, which has some big teams on Bye, like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins. There is a lot of good line value in various NFL betting markets, so we'll jump around to different bet types to find wagers that have zero chance of losing. Now, without further ado, NFL handicapper Matt MacKay reveals his latest NFL Week 10 picks to bet.
Week 10 NFL Picks
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Carolina and Chicago kick things off for Week 10 from Soldier Field with Bears' rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent once again expected to start for Justin Fields for a fourth consecutive game. Bryce Young will face one of the league's best defenses against the run, as the Bears have quietly held four of their last five opponents under 60 total rushing yards. Chicago gave up 87 rushing yards to a run-centric Saints team in Week 9, so expect more passing volume from Young and the Panthers wideouts to pop against an injured Bears secondary that has surrendered three passing touchdowns in two straight games.
Adam Thielen hasn't scored in two weeks but he's very familiar against NFC North opponents due to his time spent playing in Minnesota. The veteran wideout is the WR1 in Carolina through nine weeks and while he's cooled off against Houston and Indianapolis, Chicago's run defense will force Young to air it out to his trusted wideout. Thielen scored against another NFC opponent on the road earlier this year while playing the Lions, logging a touchdown in four of his past five road games overall, so let's stake a unit on Thielen to return to the end zone for the fifth time to cash his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +180.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Two teams trending in opposite directions will play in Week 10, as Jacksonville hosts San Francisco during the early afternoon slate. This is one of the biggest games of the week, most notably for the 49ers, who desperately need a big win to end their three-game losing slump. Both teams had an extra week to prepare for this game due to their Week 9 Bye, which saw San Francisco trade for edge rusher Chase Young to beef up its pass rush.
Jacksonville has been led by Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence this season, with plenty of Christian Kirk sprinkled into the mix. The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS and have won five games in a row, while also covering the spread during this winning streak. Jacksonville has won eight of its last nine games against opponents over .500, so it's almost too good to be true that we're landing +3 ATS making Jacksonville a field-goal home underdog. Jacksonville specializes in stopping the run, which is how San Francisco prefers to run its West Coast offense, so let's take the points with the home underdog and stake a unit on the Jaguars +3 ATS.
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Saints and Vikings have provided some highly entertaining games in recent matchups, so we should have another highly entertaining one on tap when Minnesota hosts New Orleans in Week 10. Josh Dobbs' miraculous effort to will the Vikings to a last-minute comeback win on the road against Atlanta, especially without knowing the playbook due to arriving at the trade deadline, has captured every football fan's attention. Now, with another week of preparation, Dobbs should be in a good position to continue playing well enough behind one of the more underrated offensive line units in the NFL.
Minnesota has won four straight games despite losing star wideout Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins along the way. Head coach Kevin O'Connell dials up good schematics to keep the Vikings ahead of schedule, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against a top-seven New Orleans pass defense. If there's a weakness the Saints have on defense, its stopping the run. The injury to Cam Akers means Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler will get a good opportunity to gain chunk plays in the Vikings' rushing attack, which has become more effective as the season has progressed.
The Saints have surrendered at least 26 points in three of their past six games, which includes offenses like Indianapolis and Tampa Bay, so Dobbs and the Vikings should be able to move the football effectively and hang points at home in ideal conditions. Both teams have been profitable on unders, each 7-2 on the year, but this is the time to ignore past trends and assess the current picture. The Saints defense bleeds points, as does Minnesota, so we're hammering a two-unit wager on over 41 total points at -110 odds.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
This may appear to be a lopsided Monday Night Football game, but Denver is quickly improving under first-year head coach Sean Payton. A couple of last-second losses to Washington and Las Vegas earlier in the season have made it difficult to take the 3-5 Broncos seriously. However, Denver's defense has tightened up quickly, holding opponents under 20 points in three straight games, two of these coming against Kansas City.
Josh Allen and the Bills have been losing their identity, fading back into a one-dimensional offense that puts too much on Allen's plate, with inconsistent play from other skilled players like James Cook and Gabe Davis. It's been Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, and a ton of Allen miscues, whether interceptions, missed throws, or fumbles. The Broncos make a living off of turnovers lately, forcing five of them against Patrick Mahomes in Week 8.
Out of their Week 9 Bye, Denver should have a good game plan developed for containing Allen and Diggs. Russell Wilson hasn't attempted a lot of passes, but he's managed to throw at least one touchdown in every game, including three against the Chiefs in Week 8 for the third time this season. The run-centric Broncos lull opponents to sleep and then attach with deep targets downfield, which is something Buffalo's injured defense has struggled to prevent lately.
+7.5 ATS is massive value on the Broncos here, as the key number of seven is in play, meaning Denver can still lose by a touchdown and cover. The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five straight games, while each of the Broncos' last nine games played in November have gone under. This means we're due to see a relatively low-scoring, defensive battle with the Broncos sustaining drives and executing when it matters. +320 moneyline is enticing, but let's be smart and stake a unit on Denver to cover +7.5 ATS in a low-scoring game where its defense continues to show up.
Week 10 NFL Picks
- Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears: Adam Thielen Anytime TD Scorer (+180) (Bet $100 to collect $280)
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars +3 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings: Over 41 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills: Broncos +7.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
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