Week 11 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 11 of the NFL Season?
Week 10 gave us numerous thrilling finishes across the league so Week 11 can only be better! Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - November 15, 2023, 11:47 AM EST
5 minWeek 11 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 11 of the NFL Season?
Week 10 gave us numerous thrilling finishes across the league, as multiple teams earned comeback wins with walk-off field goals. Touchdowns were scored left and right, but unfortunately, Adam Thielen started us off 0-1 with our official NFL picks on Thursday Night Football, suffering from Bryce Young's poor play despite drawing a favorbale matchup against a porous Bears secondary.
An investment in Jacksonville at +3 seemed like a strong wager at the time, but the Bye Week seemingly hurt the Jaguars, who saw their five-game win streak snapped at home against a 49ers offense that got healthier during their Week 9 Bye, with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel both playing big roles in a 34-3 rout over Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence hasn't made significant strides in his development this year, compared to last season, so the 49ers' ability to neutralize Travis Etienne early, paired with the Jaguars' bottom-tier pass defense, resulted in a blowout loss.
After starting 0-2, we rallied and got back to .500, notching consecutive wins with the Saints and Vikings game going over 41 total points, finishing 27-19, while the Denver Broncos outright win on the road over Buffalo easily covered +7.5 ATS. Russell Wilson and Sean Payton appear to have things figured out, while the Broncos' defense is healthier and much improved compared to a few disastrous performances seared into bettors' minds from earlier in the season.
We're getting even more elite matchups in Week 11, wrapped up with a Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Arrowhead Stadium. Thursday Night Football is a great AFC North divisional matchup between Cincinnati and Baltimore, who are both coming off of losses and desperate to get back into the win column in a hyper-competitive divisional race. Josh Dobbs and the Vikings hit the road against Denver's improved defense on Sunday Night Football, while the Steelers hit the road against a Deshaun-Watson-less Cleveland offense in another must-win AFC North contest for both teams.
After going 6-2 in the last two weeks, NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest NFL Week 11 picks to wager across several NFL betting markets and bet types.
Week 11 NFL PICKS
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson kick Week 11 off with an exciting matchup at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night. The Bengals lost outright 27-24 hosting the Ravens in Week 2, as Burrow's untimely red zone interception kept Cincinnati from taking a late lead. Baltimore is bottling up opposing passing attacks, holding four of its past five opponents under 200 total passing yards.
The Bengals are expected to be without Tee Higgins due to a hamstring injury, meaning Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd will become Burrow's primary targets. Joe Mixon will need to bring his A-game, as Baltimore's run defense is its weakness, allowing over 125 rushing yards in three of its past five games. Conversely, the Bengals have been forcing at least two turnovers in five consecutive games, but an injured defensive line will put more pressure on its secondary, which couldn't contain C.J. Stroud late in Week 10.
Oddsmakers are giving Cincinnati +3.5 ATS on the road, while the point total line is high for a divisional matchup at 46 total points. The Ravens are -200 moneyline favorites and trends suggest that they will cover -3.5 ATS, as they've won nine consecutive games as favorites following a loss. However, the point total line is more interesting. Prime time unders have been massively profitable in 2023, plus, the Ravens have had 10 of their past 12 home games go under the point total line. Week 10 was an explosion of points against the Browns, but 46 points is too much with how talented these defenses have been this year. Let's stake a unit on under 46 total points at -110 odds in this AFC North divisional tilt.
ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
Kyler Murray's return to Arizona's offense made a dramatic impact in Week 10. Murray's mobility was better than most expected, as his legs led to a touchdown score on six carries for 33 yards. Murray was unable to complete 60 percent of his pass attempts and failed to throw a touchdown, missing Marquise Brown by a few inches on a downfield end zone target. He also recorded an interception and it won't get easier against the Texans' pass defense on the road in Week 11.
The Texans' pass defense is getting healthier and its been stingy all season, forcing two interceptions against Joe Burrow on the road in Week 10. Houston is also carrying a ton of momentum from its two back-to-back walk off wins over Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, as rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has climbed firmly into the NFL MVP conversation with his high-quality accuracy and poise in the pocket.
Arizona's defense has been good as well this season under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon, while Houston's offensive line remains banged up. Arizona has lost eight straight road games, while Houston has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games as a favorite. Oddsmakers are laying -4.5 ATS with Houston as home favorites, while the point total line is pretty high at 47.5. Arizona has failed to cover the spread on the road in four straight games, while Houston has lost against NFC West opponents in five straight matchups.
This will be a fun game to watch, especially between Murray and Stroud, but it feels like Arizona can hang around and lose by four points or less despite Houston's 4-1 record at home this season. Houston's run defense has improved greatly in the last few games, but its pass defense has regressed, allowing 251 - 351 passing yards in three of its past four games. The Cardinals getting +4.5 is a number we should pounce on, so let's stake one unit on this line.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
Josh Dobbs and Russell Wilson in prime-time didn't sound appealing at the beginning of 2023, but now, it's among the best matchups on the Week 11 slate.
Minnesota has won five consecutive games, including 2-0 with Dobbs filling in for an injured Kirk Cousins, who suffered a season-ending Achilles tear. Justin Jefferson hasn't played since Week 5 due to a hamstring injury placing him on I.R., but now, the Vikings have activated their star wideout, who could be back on the field against a Denver pass defense that has improved greatly since getting surrendering over 400 yards of offense between Weeks 2 and 4.
Oddsmakers are giving Minnesota +2.5 ATS on the road, while the moneyline odds are -130 for Denver. The point total line is set to 43.5, with slight juice (-112) on the under. Minnesota has covered the spread in four straight road games, while each of Denver's last four games have gone under the point total line. The Vikings' offense hasn't missed a beat with Dobbs, whose mobility presents new challenges compared to Cousins' prototypical pocket passing skillset.
Denver's offense relies on running back production to stay ahead of schedule. Minnesota is a stout run defense, holding three of its lats opponents under 75 total rushing yards. The Vikings have forced multiple turnovers in all but one game since Week 6, while Denver has lost five games outright as favorites following a win. Both team are on winning streaks, but Minnesota at +110 moneyline odds feels like the right play here, facing a Broncos defense that has yet to consistently contain opposing rushing attacks, which Dobbs can exploit, as long as he avoids turnovers like he did against New Orleans in Week 10.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The game every NFL fan and bettor will be waiting to wager is a Super Bowl rematch between Kansas City an Philadelphia.
Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts sit atop current NFL MVP odds, with Hurts putting up more consistent numbers than Mahomes, who is benefitting from a top-five Chiefs defense this season. A.J. Brown's red-hot season will be challenged against a stout Kansas City pass defense, which managed to contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle effectively during their last game played in Week 9. D'Andre Swift, Hurts, and a rotating cycle of running backs in Philadelphia's backfield will be the X-factor in this matchup.
The Chiefs have struggled against opposing run games, allowing 115-153 rushing yards in six of its past seven games played. Hurts' knee contusion should be healed after the Bye, while Kenneth Gainwell was a factor early on during the Eagles' win over the Cowboys in Week 9. Mahomes has been more turnover-prone, as an underwhelming wide receiving corps has allowed teams to focus on stopping Travis Kelce.
Philadelphia's defense has been much tougher to run on versus passing, so let's invest a two-unit stake on the point total line in this matchup, taking over 46.5 points at -105 odds. Yes, prime time unders have been profitable this year, but the Chiefs offense should have more success through the air, as they did early against Miami, while Philadelphia has a multitude of ways to move the football effectively into the red zone. Two of the Chiefs' four home games have hit at least 47 total points this season, so let's stay confident with this prime time over.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens: Under 46 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans: Cardinals +4.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to collect $215) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos: Vikings Moneyline (+110) (Bet $100 to collect $210) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Over 46.5 (-105) (Bet $105 to collect $205) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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