NFL Player Props Week 11: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Week 11 NFL anytime TD scorer player prop picks ahead of this week's Sunday slate of games. With so much action in front of us, who should we be betting on to reach the end zone? Find out here with Matt MacKay's Week 11 anytime TD scorer picks.
Matt MacKay - November 19, 2023, 10:15 AM EST
7 minNFL Player Props Week 11: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
NFL Week 11 is finally here! We've identified several anytime touchdown scorer props to target as winning wagers during Sunday's 12 game-slate.
Week 11 Byes include the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and New Orleans Saints. There are some incredible games on tap, with plenty of divisional matchups included, but the anytime touchdown scorer prop market continues to be the best NFL betting market to exploit.
Last week, we went 3-2 with our anytime touchdown scorer bets, as Tank Dell (+170), Jaylen Warren (+170), and Keaton Mitchell (+350) all found the end zone in Week 10. Ironically, the only two props that didn't cash were Travis Etienne (-115) and Alexander Mattison (+105), whose odds were much less lucrative than the three players who cashed for us during the Week 10 slate. Don't be afraid to invest in a player with longer odds, as we engage in the continuous cat and mouse game when it comes to assessing betting line value oddsmakers create at various online sportsbooks.
There's nothing like cashing a plus-money wager, especially when it comes to touchdown scorers. We've generated a ton of momentum across the last two articles, going 5-5 since Week 9, and 3-2 in Week 10, so let's keep the hot streak rolling into Week 11! NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest Week 11 anytime touchdown scorer props to wager ahead of kickoff on Sunday afternoon.
BEST NFL WEEK 11 ANYTIME TD BETS
AARON JONES ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Green Bay hosts the Los Angeles Chargers during the 1 p.m. ET window, looking to get back into the win column at Lambeau Field. If there's one thing Los Angeles does poorly on defense, it's surrendering chunk plays in the passing game. This means Jordan Love, who tends to take deep shots downfield to his wideouts, could get the Packers into scoring position fairly frequently. Once in the red zone, it's Aaron Jones' time to shine.
Jones didn't score against a stout Pittsburgh defensive front in Week 10, but he scored the opening touchdown against the Rams in Week 9 at home. He also earned three red zone touches, including a target, which was one more touch than A.J. Dillon last week. Los Angeles has allowed running backs to score in every game, excluding their 27-6 win over the Jets, since Week 6. Jones remains Green Bay's RB1 and has handled 17-24 touches in each of the past two games following his return from a hamstring injury. Let's stake a unit on Jones' plus odds to score his fourth touchdown of the 2023 season against the Chargers on Sunday.
TRAVIS ETIENNE ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (-125) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Yes, we're going right back to the well and betting on Travis Etienne to score a touchdown yet again. It was a disappointing performance for the Jaguars' RB1, who was red-hot for a multi-game stretch, but came out of the Bye against one of the league's best run defenses against San Francisco in Week 10, which led to 44 total scrimmage yards on 11 touches.
Etienne gets a fantastic matchup against Tennessee in an AFC South divisional matchup on Sunday. Yes, the Titans looked like an imposing defense stopping the run earlier in the season, but they've been allowing running backs to score touchdowns left and right lately. Tennessee has surrendered at least one touchdown to a running back in three consecutive games, including seven total touchdowns to running backs since Week 3 against the Browns.
Etienne is the motor of Jacksonville's offense, so expect the coaching staff to get him involved early and often to move the Jaguars into scoring position. We don't even need Etienne to be in the red zone to cash this prop. He's scored from 20 yards-plus on four of his eight touchdowns this season, but he's also hyper-efficient in the red zone. Don't hesitate to stake two units on Etienne to return to the end zone for the first time since hauling in a 56-yard touchdown reception on the road against Pittsburgh in Week 8.
DE'VON ACHANE ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
We've all been awaiting the return of explosive rookie running back De'Von Achane into Miami's West Coast offense and it's finally happening in Week 11. The matchup Achane gets is excellent, facing a Las Vegas run defense that allows 4.6 yards per attempt and 10 total rushing touchdowns this season.
Achane scored seven touchdowns in a three-game stretch against Denver, Buffalo, and the New York Giants, while accounting for three consecutive 100-yard rushing games. The Raiders defense looked good against the Giants and Jets' anemic offenses during the last two weeks, but before these matchups, they had allowed seven running back touchdowns in a four-game stretch.
The only concern is Achane's ability to remain as explosive as he looked prior to the knee injury that placed him on I.R. He was handling 11-12 touches in his final two games before the injury occurred, but he did score four touchdowns on 22 touches against Denver back in Week 3. Miami's offense is too good to contain, especially with Achane in the backfield, as his last touchdown was a 76-yard rush against the Giants equally porous run defense. +105 is great value to acquire ahead of another potentially career day for the Dolphins' rookie running back, so let's stake 1.5 units on his anytime touchdown scorer prop at +110 odds.
TONY POLLARD ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (-130) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
It's been an epic touchdown drought for Dallas' RB1, Tony Pollard, who many expected to elevate his game to another level in the absence of Ezekiel Elliot. Instead, after scoring two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 1, Pollard has disappeared from the end zone.
Dallas has turned to its passing attack, led by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, but Pollard has not been involved as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Then, in Week 10, Rico Dowdle was the Cowboys' running back who managed to find the end zone late in garbage time. Pollard's had a couple of bad breaks come his way, with bad penalties nullifying a couple of touchdowns. He's still earning double-digit carries, including in the red zone, where he recorded four carries for 21 yards against the Giants in Week 10.
Now, on the road, Pollard gets a dream matchup against the Panthers. Carolina is allowing 4.3 yards per attempt and a whopping 15 rushing touchdowns, second-most in the league behind only the New York Giants. Carolina has allowed a running back to score in eight of nine games this season, while surrendering 110 or more total rushing yards against every team except Indianapolis. It's -130 odds, so we're eating a bit of juice here, but oddsmakers know that Pollard is overdue for a touchdown, which Dallas will likely recognize once they find themselves in scoring position.
Let's stake two units on Pollard to end his eight-game touchdown drought on the road in another favorable matchup against Carolina on Sunday afternoon.
TREY MCBRIDE ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+180) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
We're straying away from running backs for the final anytime touchdown scorer prop and going to what projects as one of the highest-scoring games on the Week 11 slate.
Houston and Arizona face off against each other, with Kyler Murray and C.J. Stroud both coming off of impressive wins late in the game during Week 10. Stroud is garnering NFL MVP consideration as a rookie quarterback, while Murray's mobility looked great despite coming off of a torn ACL sustained last season. Arizona has been competitive all season in games where they faced quality opponents like Dallas and San Francisco, but with Murray back, the Cardinals' offense is elevated to a new level.
This elevation already had a huge impact on second-year tight end, Trey McBride, who recorded eight receptions for 131 yards on nine targets against Atlanta in Week 10. McBride showed a strong rapport with Murray and nearly found the end zone, but he's already scored once this season with Josh Dobbs under center against the Ravens in Week 8.
McBride faces Houston's pass defense, which struggles containing tight ends. The Texans have given up four touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, including two to Cade Otton at home in Week 9, so McBride should be positioned for immense success on the road against Houston's injury-plagued linebacking corps in Week 11. Let's stake 1.5 units on McBride to cash his anytime touchdown scorer line at +180 odds.
WEEK 11 ANYTIME TD PICKS
- Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) (Bet $100 to collect $205)
- Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125) (Bet $125 to collect $225)
- De'Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) (Bet $100 to collect $205)
- Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125) (Bet $125 to collect $225)
- Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180) (Bet $100 to collect $280)
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