Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick, Odds: Expect Jalen Hurts, Eagles To Put On a Show?
On Monday Night Football for Week 11, we get a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay explains why you should expect Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to put on a show. Check it out.
Matt MacKay - November 19, 2023, 1:30 PM EST
7 minPhiladelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick, Odds: Expect Jalen Hurts, Eagles To Put On a Show?
Undoubtedly the game of the week, we're treated to a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football to wrap up the NFL's Week 11 slate.
Narratives abound in this game but the most important aspect of betting this matchup lies within Kansas City's defense. The Chiefs have a top-five unit on defense, generating a 28.2 percent pressure rate, second-highest in the NFL while facing an Eagles' offensive line that remains one of the more stalwart units in the league this season. Surprisingly though, Philadelphia has allowed a 6.7 percent sack rate, 15th-most in the league, so Chris Jones and the rest of the Chiefs' defensive line should be in a good position in third-and-long situations.
Patrick Mahomes won his second MVP and Super Bowl MVP last season in a high-scoring win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl, but he's been afforded more opportunity to make mistakes due to his exceptional defense. The numbers and production haven't been nearly as consistent and dominant from the Chiefs' franchise quarterback in 2023, but he's still shown an ability to generate explosive plays with his arm talent and mobility.
Philadelphia is the only team in the league with an 8-1 record, which shows how much parity we've seen in the NFL this season. A loss to the Jets, who forced Jalen Hurts to throw three interceptions, is the only blemish on the Eagles' record. Yet, oddsmakers have Philadelphia as +2.5 ATS on the road in Kansas City on Monday night.
Can the Eagles win outright on the road with both teams coming off of their Bye Week? Or will Mahomes and the Chiefs start hot early on like they did against Miami in Week 9 to put the game out of reach? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his latest prediction and pick for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
EAGLES VS. CHIEFS DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Monday, November 20, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC, ESPN+
EAGLES VS. CHIEFS ODDS
- Spread: Eagles +2.5 (-105), Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
- Total Odds: Under 45.5 (-110), Over 45.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Eagles (+128), Chiefs (-152)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs INJURY REPORT
EAGLES
Probable: QB Jalen Hurts (Knee), CB Bradley Roby (Shoulder)
Questionable: OL Cam Juergens (Foot), RB Boston Scott (Personal),
Out: LB Nakobe Dean (Foot), TE Dallas Goedert (Forearm), WR Quez Watkins (Hamstring), CB Avonte Maddox (Pectoral)
CHIEFS
Questionable: WR Richie James (Knee)
Out: LB Nick Bolton (Wrist), WR Justyn Ross (Personal)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs PREDICTION
The Chiefs are allowing the fewest sacks in the league at 3.4 percent this season, but they'll have their work cut out against the Eagles' defensive line. Whether its rookie Jalen Carter, or veterans Haason Reddick and Fletcher Cox, Mahomes will likely be under duress early in this matchup. His mobility to extend plays inside and outside of the pocket has been the key in keeping the offensive line looking elite, despite showing flaws at times against stout defensive line units.
Philadelphia has recorded the fourth-most sacks (30) this season, while ranking fourth-best in hurry percentage (10%) and eighth-best in pressure rate (25.1%) through nine games played. The Eagles' pass defense, however, is porous and vulnerable, despite trading for Kevin Byard to plug into their secondary at the trade deadline. Mahomes will have plenty of preparation to identity the weaknesses to exploit in Philadelphia's secondary, which allowed Washington and Dallas to record at least 333 passing yards in each of its past two games.
The Chiefs' passing attack hasn't been as potent lately, but we saw them go nuclear against the Chargers in Week 7, recording over 415 passing yards in a 31-17 win. A five turnover outing against Denver was allegedly due to a flu that Mahomes and a few other Kansas City players were dealing with, which didn't look evident in their win overseas against a potent Miami offense in Frankfurt, Germany back in Week 9.
The Chiefs have won this head-to-head matchup four consecutive times, including two with both Mahomes and Hurts on the field. The Eagles are slightly more profitable cashing overs, going 5-4 this season, while the Chiefs' elite defense has them 7-2 in favor of the under. Oddsmakers are giving us 45.5 total points in this matchup. Kansas City hasn't recorded 46 total points in a game this season since a 27-20 win on the road against Minnesota back in Week 5. Conversely, the Eagles high-flying offense, led by star wideout A.J. Brown, have recorded at least 46 total points in three consecutive games, including matchups against Miami and Dallas.
The Eagles' high-octane offense, combined with a porous pass defense, means we're going to cash the over at 45.5 total points in this highly anticipated prime time matchup. Yes, unders have been profitable in prime time this season, however, the Chiefs' defense has allowed at least 115 total rushing yards in four straight games. This plays right into Philadelphia's run-centric identity, which will allow them to move the ball downfield into the red zone, resulting in points early and often.
Mahomes will be forced to do more in this game and he'll likely deliver, especially with an extra week to prepare, so don't get tricked into taking the under despite its recent success in Chiefs games. Instead, we're staking three units on over 45.5 total points during the game of the week at Arrowhead Stadium.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs PICK
- Pick: Over 45.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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NFL Odds
