Week 12 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 12 of the NFL Season?
Week 11 gave us numerous thrilling finishes across the league so Week 12 can only be better! Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - November 24, 2023, 11:04 AM EST
5 minWeek 12 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 12 of the NFL Season?
We've been doing well betting the NFL this season but we cooled off significantly in Week 11, going 0-4 with our weekly NFL picks.
The Cardinals came the closest to delivering, losing 21-16, suffering a loss by the hook as +4.5 ATS underdogs on the road against NFL MVP candidate C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Cincinnati's porous defense gave us no chance of cashing under 46 total points during a Thursday Night Football game that saw Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow both suffer serious injuries.
Minnesota was right in the mix with Denver on Sunday Night Football during Josh Dobbs' first road start with the Vikings, but a couple of turnovers and a late comeback from Russell Wilson kept Minnesota's +110 moneyline odds from cashing. Then, wet and cold conditions between Kansas City and Philadelphia turned into a run-centric slug fest, as MVP frontrunner Jalen Hurts led a 21-17 winning effort on the road, failing to cash over 46.5 total points due to reduced passing volume.
At least we were close to hitting a couple of these NFL picks during Week 11, but this simply means we're due to hit big in Week 12. Thanksgiving is one of the best sports weekends in the calendar year, so let's bounce back by going 4-0 on this slate, which is filled with a ton of value to build our bankroll during the holiday season.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay returns with four of his favorite Week 12 NFL picks to wager across various NFL betting markets during Thanksgiving weekend.
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
The AFC South is up for grabs in this exciting Week 12 divisional matchup between C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence. Stroud is a legitimate NFL MVP candidate as a rookie quarterback, while Lawrence is coming off of his best outing of the year, accounting for four total touchdowns in a dominant win against the lowly Titans.
Houston beat Jacksonville without much difficulty on the road back in Week 3, winning 37-17 behind 280 passing yards and two touchdowns from Stroud. Now that Devin Singletary and the Texans' run game has begun to heat up, the Jaguars' defense will be put in a tough spot trying to keep enough defenders in the box, despite being a sound run defense.
Houston has won four consecutive home games, while covering four of their past five games against the Jaguars. Their defensive line generates a high pressure rate, while Jacksonville's offensive line gives up a 6.9 percent sack rate, ranked 14th-most in the league. Factor in Stroud's strong arm against a porous Jacksonville secondary, plus playing at home, where he's been notably better than on the road, and placing a bet on Stroud and the Texans to cover +2 ATS as home underdogs is a strong investment to make.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
An AFC North matchup between two teams contending for an AFC playoff berth should make for a fun outing in Cincinnati on Sunday, when the Bengals host the Steelers.
Pittsburgh just fired former OC Matt Canada, so now, quarterback Kenny Pickett will need to prove he's capable of playing at a higher level than we've seen in the last few games. The Steelers' defense is getting better and healthier, while the offensive line remains an issue when it comes to surrendering pressure on passing plays. Fortunately, second-year running back Jaylen Warren is emerging as an every-down playmaker capable of taking any touches the distance, as demonstrated during a 74-yard rushing touchdown against Cleveland in Week 11.
The Bengals' offensive line has surrendered just as much pressure via sack rate as the Steelers this season, and now, they will have to protect quarterback Jake Browning replacing Joe Burrow for the remainder of the year. The momentum is completely on Pittsburgh's side, as the Steelers have won six games in a row coming off of a loss. Warren should feast against a Bengals run defense allowing 5.0 YPC and 11 rushing touchdowns, both bottom-ten metrics in the league.
We're going with a two-unit wager on the Steelers moneyline at -125 odds.
LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Arizona Cardinals host the Los Angeles Rams in an NFC West divisional matchup during Sunday's late afternoon slate. Both teams have their QB1s healthy and under center, making this game much better than it would've been a few weeks ago.
The Rams previously handled the Cardinals 26-9 back in Week 6, although Kyler Murray wasn't playing during that game. Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last five games against Arizona, but this game will be payed at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, giving the Cardinals a chance to pull this upset off outright.
Los Angeles has won each of their last eight road games against the Cardinals, while Arizona has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 divisional games. The Cardinals have been covering machines this season, going 6-5 ATS, compared to 3-5-2 ATS for the Rams. Cooper Kupp's ankle injury has him tagged questionable, while Puka Nacua is good to go after suffering his latest shoulder injury against the Seahawks in Week 11.
Kyren Williams' expected return to the Rams' backfield will be a huge boost for the Rams, who have been lacking a strong rushing attack since he was placed on I.R. The Cardinals are a top-12 defense for running backs to exploit, allowing 4.8 YPC and 10 rushing touchdowns this season. However, Murray's ability to extend plays with his mobility, combined with James Conner's availability against the Rams' run defense which has also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, means the Cardinals should be able to score points and move the football.
The point total line is set to 44.5, which feels like the line to bet. Let's stake a unit on over 44.5 total points, as the Cardinals' previous three home games have all gone over this number, going 4-1 on over 44.5 total points scored in all five home games this season.
BUFFALO BILLS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
One of the best games on paper this weekend features an interconference matchup between the 6-5 Buffalo Bills traveling to take on the 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles.
Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are both MVP candidates once again this season, but the Eagles have had a much more successful year thus far than Buffalo. Allen's turnover prone tendencies, combined with one-dimensional play calling and multiple losses as huge favorites against the Patriots, Jets, and Broncos, led to former OC Ken Dorsey getting fired after blowing the game against Denver in Week 10.
The Bills rallied in Week 11, beating a great Jets defense 32-6, as Allen threw for three touchdowns and the Buffalo defense smothered New York's struggling offense for a big divisional win to regain momentum ahead of this Week 12 road trip to Philadelphia.
The Eagles have won each of their last seven games at home, while the Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games, finally managing to do so against the Jets last weekend. The Eagles' defensive front is elite and should disrupt early and often, forcing Allen into poor decisions. Meanwhile, the Bills' defense allows 4.5 YPC, meaning D'Andre Swift and Hurts should gain big chunk plays as ball carriers against a porous run defense.
Expect A.J. Brown to bounce back as well after being held in check against the Chiefs. Brown and Devonta Smith form a potent one-two punch on the perimeter of the Eagles' passing attack, while their top-rated offensive line will be a mismatch against the Bills' defensive front. Philadelphia is -3 against the spread at -120, but let's bump up the payout to plus odds by betting a unit on the alternate line, wagering the Eagles at -5.5 ATS at +125 odds.
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: Texans +2 (-115) (Bet $115 to Collect $215)
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Steelers Moneyline (-125) (Bet $125 to Collect $225)
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals: Over 44.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to Collect $210)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles -5.5 (+125) (Bet $100 to Collect $225)
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