Week 15 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 15 of the NFL Season?
Week 14 had several unexpected outcomes so Week 15 can only get better. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season. Don't miss out on these NFL picks.
Matt MacKay - December 13, 2023, 12:01 PM EST
7 minWeek 15 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 15 of the NFL Season?
Week 14 had several unexpected outcomes, especially to close out its slate, as Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants won their third consecutive game with a field goal in the final minute to beat Green Bay outright as 6-point underdogs ATS. Meanwhile, down in South Beach, the Miami Dolphins encountered injuries and difficulty moving the football against the Tennessee Titans, blowing a 14-point lead in the final three minutes of the game to lose 28-27 as 14-point favorites at home.
These two games exemplify why the NFL is so much fun to watch and wager on, as the parity seems to be at an all-time high. Unfortunately for us last week, we went 1-3 with our Week 14 NFL picks, cashing over 41.5 total points in the Indianapolis vs. Cincinnati game. The Steelers lost outright at home despite being -6 ATS against New England's anemic offense, surrendering three touchdown passes to Bailey Zappe in a 21-18 loss. A tough penalty against Kadarius Toney on what would've been a thrilling go-ahead touchdown by Kansas City against Buffalo in the final minute of the game was called back due to an offsides call, ruining Chiefs' -2.5 ATS. Then, during the NFC East showdown between Philadelphia and Dallas, the Eagles were held in check, only scoring one touchdown via a scoop-and score on defense. Philadelphia's stale offensive outing resulted in a 33-13, failing to hit over 51.5 by a touchdown.
We went in the opposite direction after managing a 2-2 betting record in Week 13, so it's imperative that we keep our confidence and continue to invest on betting lines and markets that oddsmakers have mispriced or undervalued. In Week 15, all 32 NFL teams are back competing, leaving Bye weeks in the rearview mirror. Let's take advantage of these extra games in NFL betting markets and win our money back and then some.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his four Week 15 NFL picks to wager ahead of a jam-packed Week 15 slate. The playoff race is fully underway and growing crowded, making this the best time of the year to bet on the league.
WEEK 15 NFL PICKS
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
We're going to have a Thursday Night Football game with multiple key starters injured in an AFC West divisional matchup between the Raiders and Chargers. Las Vegas was unable to score any points against Minnesota, losing at home 3-0, so expect Raiders' head coach Antonio Pierce to have his offense motivated and aggressive early.
The Chargers just got routed by Denver at home, losing Justin Herbert to I.R. with a finger injury. Insert Easton Stick, a former fifth-round quarterback out of North Dakota State who has a career completion rate of 56 percent in two career starts. Last week, Stick committed two fumbles and was sacked twice, throwing for under 180 yards and no touchdowns.
Oddsmakers have this game pegged at a low 34 point total due to these quarterback injuries. Aidan O'Connell has the upper hand due to being thrust into the QB1 role a few weeks ago, but the Raiders also have star running back Josh Jacobs tagged as questionable due to a knee injury. Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett are also banged up for Los Angeles, potentially eliminating even more talent from the field in prime time.
Unders have reigned supreme in prime time games this season. Both of these teams are 10-3 in favor of the under in 2023, so despite the dreadfully low point total, let's stake a unit on under 34 total points at -110 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
DETROIT LIONS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
Two teams trending in opposite directions will wrap up the three-game Saturday slate in prime time, as Detroit hosts Denver in Week 15.
Russell Wilson and Sean Payton have been quietly winning games without much fanfare or explosiveness, but style points aren't required in the NFL. The Broncos are healthier than Detroit, which may be without star center Frank Ragnow due to a leg injury. Detroit's secondary and interior offensive line are also banged up, while Jared Goff has been a turnover machine in his past three games.
Denver's defense has improved the most since getting thrashed for 70 points by Miami earlier in the season. The Broncos have won six of their lats seven games outright, while Detroit is 1-2 in their last three games. Playing at home should help, but this Broncos team plays complimentary football, facing a Lions defense that has surrendered 109 or more rushing yards in four consecutive contests.
Let's stake a unit on Denver to cover as four-point road underdogs ATS in prime time, where they've previously managed to beat Buffalo and Minnesota in similar conditions.
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Jordan Love completed a last-minute drive to briefly take the lead on the road against the New York Giants in Week 14, but the Packers' defense was unable to contain New York's offense on the ensuing drive.
The Packers' three-game win streak came to and end, as the run defense was gashed throughout the night by Saquon Barkley and Tommy DeVito. Rachaad White has been stellar in Tampa Bay's backfield, while Baker Mayfield's rapport with wideout Mike Evans has allowed the veteran wide receiver to extend his 1,000 yard season with 10 touchdowns entering Week 15.
Tampa Bay's season looked over for awhile, losing several one possession games and going 1-5 from late September to mid-November. Now, the Buccaneers, who compete in the NFC South, the weakest division in the NFL, occupy first place due to their win over Atlanta in Week 14.
Love should be able to shred Tampa's porous secondary, while White should be able to accomplish a similar feat against the Packers' turnstyle run defense. This leads us to the point total market, where we're getting a current point total line set to 41.5. Let's hammer this line and stake two units on over 41.5 total points to be scored despite playing in cold conditions at Lambeau Field in mid-December.
DALLAS COWBOYS VS. BUFFALO BILLS
We are obligated to get action on the game of the week when Dallas travels to Buffalo in Week 15. Dak Prescott is currently the odds-on betting favorite to win NFL MVP, while Josh Allen's road win over Kansas City in Week 14 has launched him back into contention.
Dallas is currently in the midst of a difficult schedule, but they appear to have the inside track toward locking up a top seed in the NFC playoffs. Buffalo is in a much different position, needing to close their season on a run to return to the AFC postseason, currently occupying the 11th seed.
These teams each have good defensive and offensive line units to counter and create pressure at the line of scrimmage. The edge goes to Dallas, whose secondary has been much more prolific than Buffalo's. However, the Bills have forced at least two turnovers in three straight outings, while Dallas has surrendered over 100 rushing yards in five of their last six games.
Oddsmakers expect Allen and the Bills to win outright at home after their big road win in Kansas City, valuing them as -2.5 ATS and -134 moneyline odds. Let's ride the wave of momentum Buffalo generated last week and invest in their moneyline, playing a home game for the first time since Week 11. After all, Dallas' three losses have all come on the road, making the Bills a great investment opportunity, especially as the more desperate team.
WEEK 15 NFL PICKS
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Under 34 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos: Broncos +4 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 41.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to collect $215)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills: Bills Moneyline (-134) (Bet $134 to collect $234)
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