Week 16 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 16 of the NFL Season?
Week 15 had many wild twists and turns, so expect more of the same in Week 16. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season. Don't miss out on these NFL picks.
Matt MacKay - December 20, 2023, 11:05 AM EST
5 minWeek 16 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 16 of the NFL Season?
The 2023 NFL season rolls on into Week 16, with 26 teams still competing for a playoff berth. It's the best time of the regular season, when the stakes are at their highest, but injuries form a continuous obstacle to overcome.
No NFL team has fewer than three losses, and in Week 16, we'll get a highly anticipated matchup between San Francisco and Baltimore, who both boast 11-3 records atop the league. As such, Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson are also the top two current NFL MVP betting favorites, so there's a ton at stake for both quarterbacks and their respective teams, which have already locked up playoff seeds in their respective conferences.
Our Week 15 NFL picks went 2-2, marginally improving from a 1-3 outing in Week 14. We were duped on the Raiders vs. Chargers point total line, set to an even 34 total points, as Las Vegas routed Los Angeles 63-21 to destroy under bettors in the first half. Then, the Detroit Lions dismantled Denver in prime time on Saturday night, winning 42-17 to crush Broncos +4 ATS. Fortunately, the final two picks came through for us, as Tampa Bay and Green Bay produced 54 total points of offense, cashing over 41.5 total points. Lastly, James Cook singlehandedly led the Buffalo Bills to a 31-10 rout of Dallas, totaling over 200 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, easily cashing Buffalo's -134 moneyline odds.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back with four more Week 16 NFL picks to wager entering another exciting slate, as the NFL regular season begins to wind down.
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
We've got a good matchup on paper to kick off the Week 16 slate between New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. The Saints have won two consecutive games, albeit against the Panthers and Giants, to improve to .500 to remain in contention for the NFC South division. Meanwhile, the Rams, under head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford, are flexing their Super Bowl pedigree with a late season push towards the playoffs.
Oddsmakers are laying -4.5 ATS with the Rams at home in SoFi Stadium on Thursday night. The Saints are a much different team on the road, plus their defense is missing several key starters in its secondary, giving Stafford and the Rams' balanced offense plenty of ways to attack. With the Rams' moneyline odds at -196, we need to invest elsewhere. Let's stake a unit on Los Angeles to cover as -4.5 point favorites at home in a favorable matchup against an injury-plague Saints defense. The Rams have covered the spread in four consecutive contests and their defense has been air-tight against the pass, meaning the Saints' attempts to play catch up will lead to the Rams securing a comfortable win by five or more points.
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Two AFC North opponents will clash in Acrisure Stadium on Saturday's two-game slate, as Jake Browning will look to extend the Bengals' winning streak to four games on the road against the spiraling Pittsburgh Steelers.
Mason Rudolph replaced Mitch Trubisky as QB1 during a blowout road loss against Indianapolis, marking the third consecutive loss for the Steelers in Week 15. Perhaps a return home will help, however, Pittsburgh previously lost outright at home twice to Arizona and New England, so it's unlikely to move the needle much. In order for the Steelers to win, they'll need to generate a heavy dose of runs against a struggling Cincinnati run defense, chewing clock and picking up scores in the red zone.
Pittsburgh's defense has only forced one turnover in its last three games played, while the offense has committed five turnovers, putting the Steelers into a deficit. T.J. Watt is still a game-wrecker off the edge, but Browning's quick release, combined with the effective screen game and play action ran by head coach Zac Taylor, could nullify Watt's presence.
It may wind up being a popular wager due to the Bengals' current winning streak mashing with the Steelers' losing skid, but investing in Cincinnati's -134 moneyline odds feels like the right play in this AFC North tilt. Especially since Browning lost his first start against the Steelers at home prior to this four-game winning streak, carrying plenty of motivation into what essentially amounts to a must-win playoff game in the AFC.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. DETROIT LIONS
Another divisional race that is heating up can be found in the NFC North, with the 10-4 Detroit Lions traveling to face the 7-7 Minnesota Vikings.
After thrashing Denver's defense for five passing touchdowns in Week 15, Jared Goff has renewed confidence, erasing the momentum from an ugly 28-13 road loss against Chicago in Week 14. Detroit's blend of run and pass, with an effective play action, should be on full display against Minnesota. However, under DC Brian Flores, the Vikings are one of the best run defenses in the league, which could disrupt the Lions' offensive game plan.
Minnesota quarterback Nick Mullens played well in Cincinnati, despite failing to convert a yard late in the game on back-to-back quarterback sneak attempts. He's a definite upgrade over Josh Dobbs, and now, with Justin Jefferson back in the lineup, Detroit's secondary could wind up giving up some explosive passing plays.
Oddsmakers have set the point total line to 46.5, while giving Minnesota +3 ATS. The Vikings have covered the spread in six consecutive home games as the underdog against divisional opponents, but the point total is more enticing. Five of Detroit's last six games have gone over the point total line, and now, Jefferson is back to boost the Vikings' offense. Two pass defenses that are susceptible to big plays leads to us hammering over 46.5 total points at -115 odds.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
We'll head to Florida for our final pick on the Week 16 slate, with two teams trending in opposite directions.
Baker Mayfield has led Tampa Bay to a 7-7 record, making them currently the NFC South divisional leader entering Week 16. His rapport with Mike Evans, plus the emergence of running back Rachaad White, has catapulted the Buccaneers' offense into a new stratosphere. The Bucs have scored 20 or more points in four consecutive games, including 29 and 34 in their past two contests. Now, they return home to face a struggling Jaguars pass defense.
Trevor Lawrence has battled through injuries and is currently dealing with a concussion sustained against Baltimore in Week 15. Even if Lawrence plays, which is notable since he's never missed a game in his career at any level, Jacksonville will have to be better at establishing their running game. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay's defense is one of the best against the run, but they are vulnerable against the pass.
Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games, which is why they are +1.5 ATS. Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have made this game a pick'em, with -108 moneyline odds on either side. The Jaguars have dropped 10 of their last 11 road games against NFC opponents, while the over has cashed in four consecutive Tampa Bay games. Currently, the point total in this matchup is set to 43.5, with juice on the under.
We're either investing in Tampa Bay's moneyline at home or over 43.5 total points. I'm inclined to bet the over, especially with the way the Buccaneers' offense is playing. However, their pass defense is vulnerable, which will let Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram, and the rest of the Jaguars' passing options generate some production. Jacksonville's defense has surrendered 350 total yards of offense or more in four consecutive games. Let's stake two units on over 43.5 total points in this battle for the Sunshine State.
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
- New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams: Rams -4.5 (-105) (Bet $105 to collect $205)
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Bengals Moneyline (-134) (Bet $134 to collect $234)
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions: Over 46.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to collect $215)
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 43.5 (-105) (Bet $105 to collect $205)
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