Week 17 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 17 of the NFL Season?
Week 17 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 17 of the NFL Season?
We've got another exciting slate of NFL action to wager in Week 17, starting with the Detroit Lions traveling to play the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night. There's still 24 teams eligible to clinch a playoff berth in the final two weeks of the regular season. While a few teams such as Baltimore, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Detroit have already clinched a berth, there's still a lot of win-and-get-in scenarios for teams competing on the bubble.
Last week, we went 2-2 with our Week 16 picks, with the Rams cruising to a 30-22 win to cash -4.5 ATS to start things off 1-0 on Thursday night. Then, on Saturday, we watched Jake Browning and the Bengals get routed on the road by Pittsburgh to the tune of 34-11, losing badly to miss on Cincinnati's -134 moneyline odds.
A bounce back came with over 46.5 total points scored between Detroit and Minnesota, finishing with 54 total points and a Lions win to clinch the NFC North division title. Then, in a weird game that Tampa Bay controlled throughout, the Jaguars' decision to opt for two consecutive two-point conversions, failing to score on either one, left us 1.5 points shy of cashing over 43.5. This was the most brutal beat of the weekend, but overall, we'll take 2-2.
As the final playoff surge unfolds across the league with a full slate to enjoy, NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back with four NFL Week 17 picks to bet wager during this holiday weekend.
WEEK 17 NFL PICKS
DETROIT LIONS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas is simply a different team at home. After enduring a two-game losing slump on the road against Buffalo and Miami, the Cowboys are eager to get back in front of their home crowd to fuel their high-octane passing attack. Dak Prescott's MVP campaign seems to be over, but that doesn't mean the Cowboys' franchise quarterback won't light up the Lions' porous secondary in prime time.
Oddsmakers are setting the point total at 52.5, indicating they expect a shootout. The Lions have struggled on the road in spots this season, getting routed by Baltimore and also losing to Chicago in Week 14. Yes, Detroit still has a scenario where they can win out and have others falter to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but following an emotional divisional win over Minnesota and facing a motivated Dallas offense is tough to overcome. Let's stake a unit on the Cowboys to cover as -4.5 favorites at home, where they've won every game this season by at least five points.
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
We get another marquee matchup on Sunday afternoon when Miami travels to Baltimore to face the red-hot Ravens. Baltimore is currently No. 1 in the AFC, with Miami trailing closely behind at No. 2. An outright win over the Ravens would give the Dolphins the tiebreaker, allowing them to jump into the No. 1 seed.
Tua Tagovailoa continues to operate within head coach Mike McDaniels' West Coast offense with efficiency, but it's Raheem Mostert and the Miami running back corps that will dictate the outcome of this game. Baltimore's much stronger defending the pass than the run, so expect the Dolphins to dial up a heavy dose of their zone-blocking scheme with Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and De'Von Achane all getting touches to open up the passing attack downfield to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Oddsmakers are laying-3.5 with Baltimore at home, through the key number of three, so it feels like taking the Dolphins at +3 could be the wager to make. However, the point total is set to 46.5, which feels a bit too low considering the potency of each offense. Yes, Miami's defense is improving, but they also surrender explosives and Lamar Jackson is on an MVP tear right now. Due to six of Miami's last seven games as underdogs hitting the point total over, let's stake a unit on over 46.5 total points in a game that could resemble a back-and-forth shootout similar to what we saw between the Rams and Ravens in Week 14.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
The Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears are both mathematically alive in the NFC playoff race, but both need to win in Week 17. The Falcons travel to Soldier Field to face Justin Fields and the Bears, who have won three of their last four games after looking like they would roll over and prepare for another long offseason.
Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has a lot of pressure on him to continue winning and his usage of rookie first-rounder Bijan Robinson has been a talking point about his game management style. The Falcons just logged a nice 29-10 win over Indianapolis at home, so perhaps they can muster a win on the road, but it won't be easy against an improved Chicago defense that also has Fields playing some solid football on offense.
Oddsmakers are laying -2.5 ATS with Chicago at home, making the 7-8 Falcons a road underdog. In eight of Atlanta's last ten games played, the underdog has won outright, while the Bears have also failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games played against teams under .500. Both of these teams tend to blow leads late in games, so neither is trustworthy from a spread or moneyline context. Let's pivot to the point total under and target the over once again, as it hovers at a low 37.5 total points.
Each of Chicago's last two home games have resulted in 43 and 41 total points, and there could be some turnovers forced to create short fields, maximizing red zone trips and touchdown opportunities. There are playmakers all over the field on both offenses, and we only need 38 total points, so this feels like an easy play that will cash, making it a two-unit wager.
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
On Sunday Night Football, we head to an NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings will move to their fourth quarterback of the season with rookie Jaren Hall replacing Nick Mullens, who produced big numbers but was turnover-prone, leading to two consecutive losses.
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers are playing well on offense, it's simply their defense that has been unable to stop opponents. There continue to be key pieces missing on Green Bay's defense, which has allowed over 324 total yards of offense in seven consecutive games. This includes matchups against the Giants, Panthers, Chargers, and Steelers, all of which have underwhelming offensive units.
The Vikings lost star tight end T.J. Hockenson to an ACL, but Justin Jefferson's back in action, giving Hall some elite talent to work with in his second career start. Oddsmakers have this game at nearly a pick'em, with the host Vikings laying -1.5 and -112 odds on the moneyline. Over 43.5 is the point total, which feels too low once again. Plus, each of Green Bay's last five game gave gone over the point total, while the Vikings' secondary is vulnerable enough to get shredded by Love's strong arm.
Three of Minnesota's last five home games have resulted in at least 44 total points scored, so although this is a prime time game, which tend to go under this season, each defense can be exploited by the opposing offense enough to have this over cash by the end of the game. Factor in that this is essentially an elimination game from the playoff race, and both offenses will be throwing everything they have into their play-calling, so on a fast, dry track at U.S. Bank Stadium, which averages 42.4 points per game, taking over 43.5 feels like the right wager to make.
Week 17 NFL Picks
- Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -4.5 (-118) (Bet $118 to collect $218)
- Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens: Over 46.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210)
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears: Over 37.5 (-115) (Bet $115 to collect $215)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings: Over 43.5 (-112) (Bet $112 to collect $212)
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.