AFC Championship Prediction: Can Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Surprise Ravens on Sunday?
The Kansas City Chiefs have looked like a new team since the playoffs started, and are trying to pull another upset against the Baltimore Ravens. Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs shock the Ravens in their own stadium in the AFC Championship? Joey Ruiz breaks down the battle between Chiefs and Ravens.
Joey Ruiz - January 28, 2024, 1:15 PM EST
5 minAFC Championship Prediction: Can Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Surprise Ravens on Sunday?
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs find themselves in the AFC championship yet again, but this time face a stiff challenge against a very good Ravens team with arguably the best defense in football. Who has the edge? Let’s break it down.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: January 28, 2024
- Game Time: 3:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds
- Spread: Chiefs +4 (-110), Ravens -4 (-105)
- Total Odds: O 44.5 (-110), U 44.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Chiefs (+175), Ravens (-198)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
The Chiefs roll into Baltimore as 4.5-point underdogs, which is a line we are not accustomed to seeing the Chiefs or Mahomes priced at. They will be on the road for only Mahomes' 2nd ever road playoff game, and they will be facing the best defense in football who is nearly at full strength, so it is understandable why Mahomes and the Chiefs are such underdogs this afternoon.
The Chiefs will be without Kadarius Toney as he is dealing with an injury, and may also be without one of their best offensive linemen, Joe Thuney, which could be a big loss. Pacheco is also a little banged up, so it may be tough for the Chiefs to run the ball consistently and on early downs, which could put more pressure on Mahomes, Kelce, and Rice to make plays consistently to move the sticks.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have their best defensive unit in years, and likely the best KC defense that Mahomes has had since becoming the starter. The Chiefs have been an excellent defensive unit all season, especially in the second half of games, as they are one of the best units in the league at making second half adjustments. The Bills were able to run all over KC in the first of last week’s divisional matchup, before limiting the Bills to just seven second half points and none in the 4th quarter. I expect more of the same from the Chiefs D today against a run heavy Baltimore offense.
The bottom line for me in this game is that Mahomes getting 4.5 points is just too many, no matter how you swing it. When the line opened at -2.5, I did take pause for a second as I understood the respect for Baltimore, but I simply think this line has shifted too far in their direction. Mahomes as a 3-point dog last week went into Buffalo and got the win, and I think he will do enough to keep this game close or potentially win again today as he has been magnificent in the playoffs under any circumstance. With that being said, I am rolling with Chiefs +4.5 at -102 odds for 2 units as one of my most confident NFL Plays of the Day for NFL Championship weekend.
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NFL Odds
