Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Prop Pick: Will Brock Purdy Air it Out in NFC Championship Game?
Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers will play host to the Detroit Lions on Sunday night. Can the Niners' signal caller find success throwing the ball downfield in the NFC Championship? Ben Rajavuori is targeting him with his top prop pick in Lions vs. 49ers.
Ben Rajavuori - January 28, 2024, 2:00 PM EST
5 minDetroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Prop Pick: Will Brock Purdy Air it Out in NFC Championship Game?
The Lions are just one win away from the Super Bowl today, as they have passed the tests against the Rams and Buccaneers at home. However, they have to travel this week to San Francisco to take on the number one-seeded 49ers. The 49ers were able to beat Jordan Love and the Packers last week, thanks to a shoddy throw on the last drive by Jordan Love to seal the game with an interception. Now, the 49ers are 7.5-point favorites to beat the Lions at home today. Can they do it?
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: January 28, 2024
- Game Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
Brock Purdy struggled last week to find his receivers consistently. It did not help that receiver Deebo Samuel went out early in the game with an injury. It seemed that Brock Purdy was just on a different page with many of his receivers on a lot of the routes, and he even got upset at Ray-Ray McCloud after McCloud ran the wrong way on a route that almost led to a pick. However, even with Purdy struggling, he still threw for 252 yards and had a passing touchdown without throwing an interception. Today, his passing prop line is 275.5 passing yards. I love this over against this Lions' defense. The Lion' defense has consistently been one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season, especially down the wire of the season. The last seven quarterbacks to face the Lions have all hit their passing yards prop. Last week, Baker had 349 passing yards. In the wildcard round, Matthew Stafford had 367 passing yards. The Lions have given up 345+ passing yards in five straight games to opposing quarterbacks. Now, they face the quarterback who has the highest quarterback rating in the NFL and is fifth in passing yards, and first overall in yards per pass. Over the second half of the season, the Lions simply cannot defend the pass. From Week 10 on, the Lions have allowed 291 passing yards on average per game. That is even more than the Commanders and Bengals, who are second and third-worst over that span. They have also allowed the most passing yards in the postseason so far.
While the Lions have a leaky secondary, they have had an elite rushing defense all season. The Lions are second in opponent rushing yards per game with 87.7 and they are allowing just 3.8 yards per rush, which is fifth-best in the NFL. Given that, I think they will play well against Christian McCaffrey today and make Brock Purdy beat them through the air. We know he can when Deebo is healthy, and he is playing today. The Lions are giving up 7.3 yards per pass, which is 30th in the NFL, while the 49ers are averaging 8.7 yards per pass on offense, which is the best in the NFL. The 49ers will be able to throw all over this Detroit secondary today, and I have no doubt that Brock Purdy can throw for 300 yards today. We only need 276, though.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Brock Purdy Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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