Eagles vs. Giants Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Thursday Night Football
The New York Giants will try to find the magic of their first start with Jaxson Dart, and avoid the mistakes that came with the loss to the Saints. Do they stand a chance at home against NFC East Rival Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football? Let's take a look at our Eagles vs. Giants prediction and best betting pick for Thursday, October 9th.
OC Staff - October 9, 2025, 1:00 AM EDT
6 Minute ReadEagles vs. Giants Prediction: Can Jaxson Dart, Giants Stun Philly on Thursday Night Football?
Thursday Night Football features a fierce NFC East rivalry as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants. Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and the Giants are looking to bounce back after a frustrating Week 5 loss to the Saints, where Dart showed flashes of promise but also some rookie growing pains. Turnovers proved costly as New York’s offense sputtered in the second half, leaving them eager to correct mistakes and prove they can compete with one of the NFC’s best.
The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season after falling to the Broncos in dramatic fashion, blowing a late lead in Denver. At 4-1, Philadelphia remains one of the league’s top contenders, and they’ll be eager to get back on track against their divisional rival. The Giants, meanwhile, are just 1-4, making this matchup a crucial test of resilience and composure for their young quarterback and struggling offense.
Adding even more intrigue to the matchup is the return of star running back Saquon Barkley to MetLife Stadium for only the second time since leaving the Giants. Now wearing green and white, Barkley will look to make a statement against his former team, and his powerful running style could be the deciding factor against New York’s shaky front seven.
With the Eagles listed as 7-point road favorites, the question becomes whether Dart and the turnover-prone Giants can survive the relentless Philadelphia pass rush and keep pace on the scoreboard. Let’s take a closer look at the latest Eagles vs. Giants odds and what to expect in Thursday night’s divisional clash.
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Eagles vs. Giants Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, October 9, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- How to Watch: Prime Video
Eagles vs. Giants Odds
Our AI model identifies a significant value opportunity on the New York Giants +7.0. The model projects a 53.0% probability of the Giants covering, a notable divergence from the 51.2% implied by current market odds, yielding a robust 1.7% probability edge and a compelling 3.4% positive expected value on this wager.
This analytical lean is rooted in the Eagles' surprisingly mediocre yardage production, ranking 31st in passing and 25th in rushing, suggesting their offense might struggle to generate the consistent explosive plays needed for a large cover. Conversely, while the Giants offense generally struggles, their 13th-ranked rushing attack could exploit Philadelphia's 22nd-ranked run defense, enabling them to control the clock and keep this divisional contest within the touchdown margin. This combination of an underestimated Giants' run game and a less dominant Eagles' offense than perceived makes the +7.0 spread an appealing bet.
Click here for the latest Eagles vs. Giants Odds
Eagles vs. Giants Prediction
The most compelling matchup of the night pits Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts against the New York Giants' defense, a unit that presents a fascinating dichotomy. While the Giants boast a respectable 10th-ranked pass defense (by QB Rating Allowed), their Achilles' heel is glaring: they are the 31st worst team against the run. This creates an ideal scenario for Hurts, a premier dual-threat quarterback. Hurts, who averages a formidable 41.9 rushing yards per game (projected for 34.5), will find ample opportunities to exploit New York's porous run defense. His historical splits against Top-10 pass defenses are also encouraging, maintaining a 106.4 Passer Rating and 4.0 TD:INT ratio over 6 games, suggesting he won't be easily stifled through the air even by the Giants' better half of the defense.
This potent combination of ground dominance and aerial efficiency makes Hurts a nightmare matchup, and it's likely why our model identifies significant positive expected value (13.1%) on Jalen Hurts going Over 196.5 Passing Yards, anticipating he'll find success in both facets of his game, regardless of the Giants' secondary strength.
On the flip side, Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart faces an unenviable task against an elite Philadelphia Eagles pass defense, ranked 4th in QB Rating Allowed. Dart's limited experience against top-tier passing defenses tells a cautionary tale: in his sole outing against a Top-10 pass defense, he managed just 111.0 passing yards with a 96.0 Passer Rating.
While his dual-threat ability (27.2 rush yds/game, projected 32.9) could offer some escape, the Eagles' defense, even with a 25th-ranked pass rush, is formidable enough to contain passing lanes and force hurried decisions. The Giants' own run game, led by Tyrone Tracy Jr. (projected for a meager 21.5 yards), offers little relief or play-action threat to alleviate pressure on Dart. Given this daunting challenge, the model's projection of Dart throwing for only 176.8 yards seems optimistic, and it's unsurprising to see a small negative expected value (-2.1%) on his Under 177.5 Passing Yards prop, reflecting the significant hurdles he faces.
The third pivotal narrative unfolds with Saquon Barkley's emotional return to MetLife Stadium, facing his former team's abysmal run defense, ranked 31st in the league. On paper, this appears to be a prime spot for Barkley, who is projected for 74.6 rushing yards on 17.2 attempts. However, the data presents a sophisticated twist.
Despite the Giants' glaring weakness against the run, our model finds strong positive expected value (10.6%) on Saquon Barkley going Under 86.5 Rushing Yards. This counter-intuitive projection suggests that while the opportunity exists, the game script or strategic approach might limit Barkley's total output. It could be a testament to Jalen Hurts' own rushing prowess against the same soft run defense, potentially siphoning carries, or perhaps the Eagles, sensing a comfortable lead, might lean more on passing or a diversified backfield later in the game rather than force-feeding Barkley. The model sees value in betting against the obvious narrative of a revenge game blowout for Barkley on the ground.
Ultimately, the most decisive factor in this Thursday Night showdown will be Jalen Hurts' multifaceted attack against the Giants' bifurcated defense. His ability to exploit the league's 31st-ranked run defense with his legs will not only rack up yardage but also open up the passing lanes, allowing him to exceed his projected passing total. This dynamic will put immense pressure on a Giants offense already struggling to find its footing, especially with Jaxson Dart facing an elite Eagles pass defense.
Eagles vs. Giants Pick
- Pick: Under 40.5 Total Points (-110) Click here to get these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
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