Colts vs. Steelers Prediction: Can Mike Tomlin, Steelers Thrive in Home Underdog Spot in Week 9?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to bounce back on Sunday after two tough losses, and will have to do it against the hottest team in football. Can Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers spoil Daniel Jones' run in Week 9? McBets analyzes this Colts vs. Steelers prediction and best betting pick for NFL Sunday on November 2nd.
McBets - November 2, 2025, 8:50 AM EST
4 Minute ReadColts vs. Steelers Prediction: Can Aaron Rodgers, Steelers Stun Daniel Jones & Indy in Week 9 Upset Spot?
Steelers vs. Colts in Indianapolis today at Lucas Oil Stadium, and I’m looking into Pittsburgh in what sets up as a classic Mike Tomlin underdog spot. Let’s be clear: the Steelers aren’t a pretty team to bet on right now — which is exactly why they’re the right side.
Pittsburgh comes in off one of its worst defensive showings of the season, while the Colts enter riding a wave of offensive hype behind Daniel Jones and a stat sheet that makes Indy look like an AFC contender. The problem? The market has fully bought into the Colts at their absolute peak, and we’re getting a discounted number on a Steelers team in the exact spot Mike Tomlin historically thrives.
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Colts vs. Steelers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Colts vs. Steelers Odds
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Colts vs. Steelers Prediction
The Colts have built a shiny record, but look at who they’ve beaten:
- Titans (twice — worst team in football)
- Raiders (before the coaching change)
- Cardinals (third-string QB game)
- Dolphins (missing half the offense)
Four of Indy’s wins came against teams with bottom-10 efficiency offenses, and they caught the Chargers during the stretch when the OL was held together with duct tape. It has been a dream schedule — and they’ve capitalized — but it’s why the numbers look cleaner than the reality.
Now look at the recent defensive numbers. Colts defense last 2 weeks:
- 850+ combined yards allowed to Cardinals + Chargers
- 8.3 yards per pass allowed (dead last in the NFL)
- Now missing star CB Charvarius Ward + possibly DT Grover Stewart
That matters against a Steelers offense that quietly matches up extremely well here.
The Colts are bottom-2 in the league defending tight ends — and Pittsburgh runs 2-TE sets on more than 50% of snaps. This is precisely the matchup where Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and the middle-of-field passing game thrives.
Colts defense vs. TE this season:
- Most red-zone yards allowed to TEs
- 2nd-most receptions allowed to TEs
- 6 TD surrendered to tight ends already
Add in the fact Indy may be without interior run-stuffer Grover Stewart, the Steelers offensive floor is higher than it looks.
Mike Tomlin is the most profitable coach in NFL history as an underdog of 3+ points. Tomlin as an underdog of 3 or more:
- 40-21-3 ATS (65.6%) lifetime
- 11-2-3 ATS at home in that role — 84.6% cover rate
- 10-1-1 ATS when opponent win% is 60%+
- Covers by an average of +10 points per game in those matchups.
This is exactly the profile:
- Road dog
- Public loves the other side
- Steelers off an ugly loss
- Colts being priced like a top-10 team
This is the Tomlin spot. Always has been.
- Turnover luck: Colts are +8 on the season (unsustainable).
- Fourth-down luck: Colts converting 83% — opponents just 50%.
- Kicking edge: Steelers have Chris Boswell in the toughest kicking stadium in the league vs Michael Badgley (bottom-3 leg strength, 55% career from 50+).
- Weather + environment: Colts have played almost every game indoors — Steelers bring a physicality they haven’t faced.
Indy has been living clean — that rarely lasts.
Colts vs. Steelers Pick
- 2 Unit Pick: Steelers +4 (-130) Check out these best odds at Bet365 Sportsbook
We’re selling the Colts at peak market value and buying the Steelers at rock bottom.
Pittsburgh still has the better coach, the more reliable defense when it plays to its ceiling, and the matchup edge at TE and in the trenches.
You don’t have to love the Steelers — you just have to love the number.
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