Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Week 11
The Steelers and Bengals will meet again in an AFC North showdown, as Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers look for revenge. Both teams are on mild losing skids, can the Steelers bounce back on Sunday and stay in the division race? Let's take a look at this Bengals vs. Steelers prediction for Sunday, November 16th.
OC Staff - November 16, 2025, 10:00 AM EST
5 Minute ReadBengals vs. Steelers Prediction: Can Aaron Rodgers, Steelers Get Revenge
The AFC North is always a battleground, and this matchup between the struggling Cincinnati Bengals (3-6, 11th in conference, losers of two straight) and the playoff-hopeful Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4, 4th in conference, coming off a loss) promises to be a physical affair, with the Steelers defending their 3-2 home record against the Bengals' tough 1-3 road performance. The outcome hinges on a few critical individual and unit clashes that will dictate the tempo and scoring opportunities.
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Bengals vs. Steelers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: CBS
Bengals vs. Steelers Odds
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Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction
The most pivotal battle will undoubtedly be waged in the trenches: Cincinnati's offensive line attempting to protect veteran quarterback Joe Flacco against Pittsburgh's fearsome pass rush. The Steelers boast the NFL's 2nd-ranked pass rush in terms of sacks, a unit capable of disrupting even the most seasoned signal-callers. This directly contrasts with Flacco's historical struggles under pressure; his historical splits against Top-10 Pass Defenses reveal a concerning 75.4 Passer Rating, 211.0 passing yards per game, and a 1.0 TD:INT ratio over three games.
While the Steelers' overall pass defense ranks 19th, their elite pass rush is a game-wrecker. Flacco's projection of 24 completions on 39 attempts for 266.1 yards and 0.7 interceptions appears optimistic given the challenge. Our model identified a negative expected value (-2.9% EV) on his "Over 266.1 Passing Yards" prop at 1.91 (-110), suggesting the market might be overestimating his ability to consistently deliver against such fierce pressure. If Pittsburgh's defensive front can live up to its ranking, Flacco's ability to extend plays and connect with his receivers will be severely hampered, directly impacting the Bengals' ability to sustain drives and put points on the board.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers will look to establish their ground game, spearheaded by running back Jaylen Warren, against a Bengals run defense that has struggled mightily this season, ranking a dismal 30th in rush yards allowed per carry. This presents a prime opportunity for Warren to have a dominant performance. He is projected for a robust 16.8 attempts and 79.0 rushing yards, a figure well within reach given Cincinnati's defensive woes.
Establishing the run early would not only keep the Bengals' potent offense off the field but also open up play-action opportunities for Aaron Rodgers against a pass defense that ranks 29th in QB rating allowed. While the matchup is highly favorable for Warren, our model found a slight negative expected value (-1.0% EV) on his "Over 79.0 Rushing Yards" prop at 1.91 (-110), indicating that the market has already heavily priced in this obvious advantage. Nonetheless, expect the Steelers to lean on Warren to exploit this significant defensive weakness.
While the Bengals' offense faces a monumental challenge, elite wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase remains a game-breaking talent. He's projected for an impressive 8.9 receptions and 100.4 receiving yards. Against a Steelers pass defense that ranks 19th in QB rating allowed, there's certainly potential for Chase to make plays, even with Flacco under duress. Our model identifies a strong expected value (5.2% EV) on his "Over 92.5 Receiving Yards" prop at 1.91 (-110), suggesting a high-value opportunity for this bet. However, Chase's ability to reach these numbers will be inextricably linked to Flacco's ability to navigate the Steelers' pass rush.
If Flacco is consistently pressured, it limits the time for routes to develop and the accuracy of throws, potentially forcing Chase into contested catches or shorter gains. Conversely, if Chase can win his matchups quickly, it could alleviate some pressure on Flacco, creating a fascinating tension between individual brilliance and the broader systemic challenges of the offense. For the Steelers, DK Metcalf is projected for 4.2 receptions and 52.4 receiving yards against Cincinnati's 29th-ranked pass defense, with our model finding a solid opportunity (3.9% EV) on his "Over 52.4 Receiving Yards" prop at 1.91 (-110), offering a contrasting high-value receiving outlook on the home side.
Ultimately, the most decisive factor in this AFC North clash will be the Pittsburgh Steelers' ability to disrupt Joe Flacco. If the Steelers' 2nd-ranked pass rush can consistently pressure Flacco and prevent him from finding Ja'Marr Chase, it will nullify the Bengals' primary offensive weapon and dictate the game's flow, likely paving the way for a Steelers victory built on their defensive strength and a productive ground game.
Bengals vs. Steelers Pick
- Pick: Bengals +5.5 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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