Packers vs. Lions Prediction: Can Jared Goff, Lions Reverse Poor Thanksgiving History in NFC North Showdown?
The Detroit Lions are looking to correct their poor Thanksgiving trends, and the opportunity to do so rests on Jared Goff's shoulders. Can the Lions figure it out in a close NFC North contest with the Packers today at Ford Field? McBets is here with his first Thanksgiving pick for Packers vs. Lions on November 27th.
McBets - November 27, 2025, 11:15 AM EST
4 Minute ReadPackers vs. Lions Prediction: Can Jared Goff, Lions Reverse Poor Thanksgiving History in NFC North Showdown?
The Packers got the Lions back in Week 1, but that feels like a lifetime ago. Detroit has dominated this matchup recently winning six of the last seven, and everything about today’s matchup points toward the Lions continuing that recent dominance. This is a clean, sharp spot to back the better team, in their best environment, against a banged-up opponent.
Detroit simply grades out better across the board. They outrank Green Bay in offensive DVOA, defensive DVOA, and special teams — and not by small margins. The Lions are healthier, more consistent, and far more reliable in games where the script leans run-heavy. That matters here, because both teams want to run the ball… but only one team is built to win that battle.
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Packers vs. Lions Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FOX
Packers vs. Lions Odds
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Packers vs. Lions Prediction - Thanksgiving Day Game
The Lions rank 8th in Rushing DVOA, while the Packers sit at 17th and may be without Josh Jacobs, the key to their ground game. On the other side, Detroit’s defense ranks 9th against the run, while Green Bay is just middle-of-the-pack (16th). In a matchup heavily shaped by early down efficiency and staying on schedule, Detroit has the advantage both ways.
And the matchups only get better from there. The Packers’ pass defense struggles massively over the middle of the field — ranking 27th in EPA allowed — which happens to be exactly where Detroit lives offensively.Dan Campbell schemes more middle-field attacks than almost any coordinator in the league, and the Lions rank top 10 in EPA per play on those throws. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs live in those short and intermediate zones, exactly where the Packers are the most vulnerable.
Detroit also gets the benefit of Ford Field… and Jared Goff indoors is a different animal. He’s now 36-14-1 ATS indoors in his career — a ridiculous 72% cover rate. More importantly, the Lions rank No. 1 in the entire NFL in home defensive DVOA, while the Packers fall all the way to 22nd when they leave Lambeau. Green Bay’s defense is simply not the same unit on the road.
People will point to Goff’s issues under pressure, but Green Bay doesn’t generate the same heat consistently — and even when they do, Detroit’s offense is far more efficient at home. Campbell’s script plays perfectly indoors, and the Lions’ run game (8th in DVOA) makes it hard for defenses to tee off.
Thanksgiving trends also line up beautifully. The Lions as favorites on Thanksgiving are 4-2 ATS, covering by 6.6 points per game, and overall, non-Cowboys favorites are 31-11 ATS on Thanksgiving — 74% cover rate. Historically, this is the spot to back the favorite, not fade them.
Green Bay’s offense has flashed on the road, but that’s come against weaker defenses. Detroit is healthier in the secondary this week and should be able to tighten up after getting gashed by big plays against the Giants. And while the Packers defensive numbers look strong on paper, Detroit’s mismatch advantage in the middle of the field and the Lions’ balanced attack should keep Goff comfortable.
Detroit is the better team. They’re at home. They have the healthier roster. They have the schematic edge. And they’ve already shown they can dominate this matchup repeatedly.
I expect Detroit to control the pace on the ground, win the efficiency battle on early downs, and let their indoor offense stretch drives long enough to break Green Bay’s defensive structure.
Packers vs. Lions Pick
- 2 Unit Pick: Lions ML -145 Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ride the better roster, the better quarterback indoors, and the better team at home in a matchup filled with edges.
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