Top 5 Betting Picks for NFL Thanksgiving Games - Expert Predictions & Value Plays for All Three Matchups
The Wolf has gathered the top 5 props from the oddschecker+ Positive EV Tool for the Thanksgiving NFL games when the Lions host the Packers, the Chiefs visit the Cowboys, and Joe Burrow returns in prime time against the Ravens. Check out these best bets for Thursday, November 27th for the NFL Thanksgiving games.
The Wolf - November 27, 2025, 11:50 AM EST
5 Minute ReadTop 5 Betting Picks for NFL Thanksgiving Games - Finding Value with Josh Jacobs, Dak Prescott, & More
Thanksgiving is here, and The Wolf is feasting on a three game slate loaded with star power, returning quarterbacks, and premium prop value across the board. Detroit opens the day hosting Green Bay, Dallas battles Kansas City in the national spotlight, and Joe Burrow returns from injury in primetime against the Ravens. When the stakes rise, edges tighten, and this is when The Wolf hunts hardest.
These five props grade out as the top EV plays of the entire holiday slate according to FairPlay AI, each backed by strong probability edges and actionable pricing across sportsbooks. As always, the full breakdowns, probabilities, and hit rates below come straight from the data. Subscribers can check out The Wolf’s Premium 5 Best Bets for even more Thanksgiving action.
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The Wolf Top 5 Betting Picks - Thanksgiving NFL Games
1. Kareem Hunt Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-105) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Hunt has quietly settled into a consistent rotational role and continues to produce when called upon, including a big game against the Colts last week. Dallas has struggled with gap integrity all year, and Kansas City's physical front should create short field opportunities and ground volume for Hunt throughout the afternoon.
- EV: +24.41%
- AI Probability: 63.8%
- Hit Rate: 7 of last 10 games
2. Keaton Mitchell Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-118) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
The rookie speedster has flashed, but his workload remains too volatile to trust. Cincinnati’s front is getting healthier, and Mitchell has failed to clear this number in 7 of his last 10 games. With Baltimore leaning more on short passing to Mark Andrews, this is a strong spot for the under.
- EV: +21.27%
- AI Probability: 65.55%
- Hit Rate: 7 of last 10 games
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-112) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
The line remains comically low for a veteran receiver seeing enough snaps to clear this with a single early catch. Dallas will try to force underneath throws by design with a weaker secondary, and that is the exact script that creates a path for JuJu to cash with minimal volume.
- EV: +18.92%
- AI Probability: 62.92%
- Hit Rate: 6 of last 10 games
4. Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-130) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Jacobs has found the end zone in 8 of his last 10 games and remains a high volume red zone hammer. Detroit’s interior defense has leak points, and with Green Bay’s offense likely getting short fields, Jacobs has multiple TD opportunities built into the script.
- EV: +17.55%
- AI Probability: 66.44%
- Hit Rate: 8 of last 10 games
5. Dak Prescott Over 2.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Dallas often unleashes Prescott’s legs in high leverage matchups, and the Chiefs defense ranks near the bottom of the league in quarterback rushing attempts allowed. Dak has gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 and should be scrambling often against an aggressive KC pass rush.
- EV: +17.36%
- AI Probability: 62.76%
- Hit Rate: 7 of last 10 games
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