Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for Wednesday, September 9th
The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks open the 2026 NFL season with an immediate rematch of Super Bowl LX, bringing Drake Maye and Sam Darnold back together seven months after Seattle won the Lombardi Trophy. Both teams return strong defensive foundations while working through meaningful offensive changes entering Week 1. Check out this New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks prediction and best bet for Wednesday, September 9.
Peter Alexis - September 9, 2026, 6:20 PM EDT
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The New England Patriots travel to Lumen Field on Wednesday night to face the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in the opening game of the 2026 NFL season. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET on NBC, with Seattle sitting as a 3-point home favorite and the total set at 44.5.
It is an immediate rematch of Super Bowl LX, when Seattle overwhelmed New England 29-13 behind a dominant defensive performance. Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald remain in place, as do Maye and Darnold, but both offenses enter Week 1 with changes to work through after playing deep into February and receiving a shorter offseason than almost every other team in the league.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Recent Results
New England opens the season after a 14-3 campaign that ended with an AFC championship and a Super Bowl loss. The Patriots averaged 28.8 points per game during the regular season, but the offense completely stalled against Seattle in February, failing to score through three quarters while Maye was sacked six times and committed three turnovers. New England responded by adding A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs and Alijah Vera-Tucker around Maye, although TreVeyon Henderson will not be available for the opener.
Seattle also went 14-3 during the regular season before finishing the job with a Super Bowl championship. The Seahawks allowed just 17.2 points per game and carried that defensive dominance into the postseason, but the offense now has to replace both coordinator Klint Kubiak and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. Those are significant changes to absorb immediately in Week 1.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Head to Head
- February 8, 2026: Seattle Seahawks 29, New England Patriots 13
- September 15, 2024: Seattle Seahawks 23, New England Patriots 20 (OT)
- September 20, 2020: Seattle Seahawks 35, New England Patriots 30
- November 13, 2016: Seattle Seahawks 31, New England Patriots 24
- February 1, 2015: New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
Seattle has controlled the recent series and added the biggest victory in February, holding New England to 13 points in Super Bowl LX. The Patriots' most recent win over Seattle remains their 28-24 victory in Super Bowl XLIX.
February's matchup is particularly relevant to Wednesday's total. The teams combined for eight punts and three field goals in the first half, and neither offense reached the end zone until the fourth quarter. Even after a Seattle defensive touchdown and two late Patriots scores, the game finished with only 42 combined points.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
- Time: 8:20 PM ET
- Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
- How to Watch: NBC
Patriots vs. Seahawks Odds
- Spread: New England Patriots +3, Seattle Seahawks -3
- Total Points: Over 44.5, Under 44.5
Click here for the latest Patriots vs. Seahawks Odds
Patriots vs. Seahawks Line Movement and Betting Splits
Seattle was priced as a slightly larger favorite earlier in the market before settling at -3. That move toward New England comes despite the Seahawks attracting 66% of spread bets and 79% of the handle, making the resistance toward Seattle notable even with most of the market backing the defending champions.
The total remains at 44.5. The Under holds 52% of bets and 59% of the money compared to 48% of bets and 41% of the handle on the Over, giving the lower-scoring side modest support without creating a major market move.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction
Seattle's defensive front is the starting point for the matchup. The Seahawks sacked Maye six times in the Super Bowl and consistently disrupted New England without needing to manufacture pressure through constant blitzing. That allows Macdonald to keep numbers in coverage while still making Maye uncomfortable, a combination that can quickly produce stalled drives and punts.
New England has attempted to strengthen the protection in front of Maye, but the revamped unit gets an extremely difficult first assignment. The Patriots' starting offense also enters Week 1 without meaningful regular-season work together, particularly with Brown and other new pieces being incorporated into the passing game.
Henderson's absence also removes one of New England's most explosive offensive options. Rhamondre Stevenson can handle a substantial workload, but a more methodical rushing approach would naturally shorten the game and keep Maye out of obvious passing situations against Seattle's pass rush.
Seattle should again be difficult to run against. Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, DeMarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu and Derick Hall give the Seahawks enough talent up front to control early downs without sacrificing coverage numbers. New England may be able to sustain possessions, but consistently generating explosive plays is a much tougher assignment.
There are also legitimate reasons to expect Seattle's offense to need some time. Kubiak is gone, Walker is gone and the Seahawks begin the season with a different offensive structure around Darnold. A Week 1 Super Bowl rematch against a Vrabel defense is not an ideal spot to expect every new piece to immediately operate at peak efficiency.
New England also showed in February that it can make Darnold uncomfortable when Seattle is forced into conventional passing situations. Christian Gonzalez gives the Patriots a high-end matchup option against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while New England's defensive front is capable of creating enough pressure to prevent Darnold from simply sitting in clean pockets and attacking downfield.
The biggest argument for the Under is that neither offense needs to play poorly for the game to remain below 44.5. Long possessions, strong red-zone defense and a conservative early-season approach could easily produce a game in which both teams spend most of the night in the teens or low 20s. The Super Bowl finished with 42 points even after a defensive touchdown and a late burst of scoring.
Both teams are also coming off the shortest possible offseason after playing into February. Seattle may ultimately remain one of the NFC's best offenses, while New England could become more dangerous as Maye builds chemistry with his new weapons, but Week 1 is the spot where the defenses should be further ahead.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Best Bet
- Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle returns the core of the defense that suffocated New England in the Super Bowl, while the Patriots have enough talent at all three defensive levels to make Seattle's reworked offense earn every drive. Neither side needs to dominate defensively for this wager to cash.
The combination of a Super Bowl hangover, a shortened offseason, offensive personnel changes and two defenses capable of controlling the line of scrimmage creates a strong lower-scoring setup. Another game landing somewhere around 23-17 would keep the total comfortably below 44.5.
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