Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks Week 4: Back These 5 Running Backs to Score at Value Prices
NFL Week 4 brings a full Sunday slate with several featured running backs positioned for heavy workloads in favorable or high-value scoring spots. Can some of the league’s most trusted backfield options turn red-zone volume into touchdowns at manageable prices? Check out these NFL Week 4 5 anytime touchdown scorer picks for Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 10:30 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadWill Chase Brown, Kyren Williams Score on Sunday Afternoon in this Stacked Selection of RB Touchdown Picks?
This week’s five-player card stays entirely in the backfield, targeting running backs with strong scoring roles rather than chasing longer-priced receivers who may need one specific play to cash. Every selection is priced between -110 and -135, keeping the card reasonably affordable despite focusing on players who should be among the first options their offenses turn to around the goal line.
The underlying projections support that approach. All five backs carry an AI touchdown probability of at least 64.72%, and every selection shows more than 18% expected value against the current price. The matchups are not equally soft, but the combination of workload, red-zone usage, offensive importance and price creates five legitimate touchdown opportunities.
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NFL Best Touchdown Scorer Picks Week 4
1. Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Williams returns to Philadelphia after scoring against the Eagles in last season’s 33-26 meeting, and this is another matchup where Los Angeles should have reasons to keep him heavily involved. Philadelphia has used light boxes at one of the highest rates in football, an approach that can give Williams more favorable numbers at the line of scrimmage than he typically sees against defenses determined to stop the Rams’ running game.
His versatility also matters for this market. Williams produced more than 70 rushing and 70 receiving yards against Denver last week, giving Sean McVay several ways to manufacture touches even when the traditional rushing lanes are difficult. Los Angeles reached the red zone four times against the Broncos but converted only once, creating an obvious point of emphasis entering Week 4.
Williams has scored in six of his last 10 games, while the model gives him a 64.72% touchdown probability against a 52.36% implied probability at -110. That creates 23.62% EV at essentially even money for one of the Rams’ most established touchdown producers.
2. Chuba Hubbard Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125) Check out the best odds at Fanatics Sportsbook
Hubbard has already scored three total touchdowns through Carolina’s first three games, including both a rushing and receiving score in the opener. His Week 3 touchdown drought came despite 23 touches and 110 scrimmage yards against Cleveland, so the involvement remains strong even when the touchdown does not follow.
Carolina has openly discussed wanting to establish greater balance after leaning heavily on Bryce Young and the league’s top passing attack through three weeks. That can work in Hubbard’s favor against Detroit. If the Lions devote resources to slowing down Young and Carolina’s receivers, Hubbard should have opportunities to attack lighter fronts and remain the natural option when the Panthers get close to the goal line.
The projection is considerably stronger than the -125 price suggests. Hubbard carries a 66.51% AI scoring probability compared to 55.56% implied, producing 19.72% EV. The Panthers do not need to dominate Detroit for this bet to work. A competitive home game with two or three red-zone possessions should put Hubbard directly in the touchdown conversation.
3. Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115) Check out the best odds at Fanatics Sportsbook
Williams offers arguably the strongest combination of price and projection on the entire card. He has scored three total touchdowns through three games, including two in the opener and another rushing touchdown against Baltimore last week while finishing with 98 yards on 19 carries.
Dallas continues to treat Williams as its clear starting running back, and his receiving involvement adds another path to the end zone. He already has 10 receptions through three games and caught a touchdown in Week 1, preventing defenses from simply treating him as a traditional early-down runner whenever he is on the field.
The model is especially bullish, giving Williams a 73.65% chance to score against only 53.49% implied probability at -115. That produces 37.69% EV, the best mark among these five selections. Dallas has averaged more than 28 points per game, and backing the starting running back at almost even money provides a straightforward way to attack another matchup with legitimate scoring potential.
4. Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Brown is the one selection where the matchup itself deserves more caution. Jacksonville has been excellent defensively through three games and has allowed only 12 points per game while ranking among the league’s better run defenses. This play is much more about Brown’s role and Cincinnati’s offensive environment than simply fading the opposing front.
The workload remains strong. Brown has handled 49 carries and 10 receptions through three games, including 20 carries against Houston and another 13 against Pittsburgh. He also scored in Cincinnati’s opener and entered the year after producing 11 total touchdowns as the Bengals’ lead back in 2025.
The price remains playable because the projection still sees a substantial scoring edge. Brown has a 68.05% AI probability compared to 57.47% implied at -135, creating 18.41% EV. Cincinnati is at home in a game carrying one of the larger totals on the Week 4 board, so even against a difficult front, Brown should have enough scoring opportunities to justify backing his featured role.
5. Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135) Check out the best odds at Fanatics Sportsbook
Walker has transformed Kansas City’s backfield since joining the Chiefs, leading the NFL with 360 rushing yards through three games while adding another 82 as a receiver. More importantly for this market, he has already scored four total touchdowns with two on the ground and two through the air.
His Week 3 performance showed exactly why he is so valuable for touchdown betting. Walker scored once on a 10-yard run and again as a receiver against Miami, giving Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes several different ways to feature him near the end zone. Kansas City has given him 65 carries through three games, including at least 18 in every contest, so the scoring role is supported by genuine volume.
Walker now faces Las Vegas in a battle of 3-0 AFC West teams. The Raiders have allowed 116.3 rushing yards per game, while Kansas City enters averaging 153.3 on the ground behind an offense producing 29.3 points per contest. Walker’s 67.9% projected touchdown probability is well above the 57.45% implied probability at -135, creating 18.2% EV and making the NFL’s current rushing leader an excellent way to finish the five-running-back card.
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