Colts vs. Commanders Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 4 Odds for London Game
The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders open Sunday's NFL action from London with both teams trying to build on their first victories of the season. Can Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor take advantage of Washington's depleted lineup while Marcus Mariota tries to keep the Commanders moving without Jayden Daniels? Check out this Colts vs. Commanders prediction and best bet for Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadColts vs. Commanders Prediction: Can Daniel Jones, Colts Take Advantage of Banged-Up Commanders in London on Sunday Morning?
The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on Sunday morning, with both teams entering at 1-2 after breaking through for their first wins in Week 3. Indianapolis is a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 46.5 in the first London game of the 2026 NFL season.
Quarterback availability is the defining storyline. Washington will make a second consecutive start with Marcus Mariota after Jayden Daniels was ruled out, while Indianapolis enters with Daniel Jones healthy but a significantly depleted wide receiver room.
Colts vs. Commanders Recent Results
Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Indianapolis finally broke through with a 19-17 win over the Houston Texans after opening the season with two losses. The Colts led for nearly the entire game, briefly fell behind with 1:48 remaining and responded with a drive that set up Spencer Shrader's 53-yard game-winning field goal.
Daniel Jones completed 66.7% of his passes and produced four completions of at least 20 yards, but two lost fumbles and an interception nearly gave the game away. Indianapolis still won despite finishing minus-three in turnover margin, while the defense delivered a much-needed response after surrendering 1,029 yards over the first two weeks.
Washington Commanders (1-2)
Washington earned its first victory with a 33-31 upset over Seattle behind Mariota and a defense that finally created takeaways. Mariota completed 61% of his passes for 183 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions before sealing the win with a nine-yard read-option run on third-and-7.
The final score was more flattering than the underlying performance. Seattle outgained Washington by nearly 200 yards, averaged almost three additional yards per play and more than doubled the Commanders in first downs, but Washington won the turnover battle 3-0.
Colts vs. Commanders Head to Head
- October 30, 2022: Washington Commanders 17, Indianapolis Colts 16
- September 16, 2018: Indianapolis Colts 21, Washington Commanders 9
- November 30, 2014: Indianapolis Colts 49, Washington Commanders 27
- October 17, 2010: Indianapolis Colts 27, Washington Commanders 24
Indianapolis has won three of the last four meetings, although Washington took the most recent matchup 17-16 in Indianapolis. The teams have not played since 2022, limiting the value of the historical matchup beyond the broader series.
Colts vs. Commanders Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Time: 9:30 AM ET
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
- How to Watch: NFL Network
Colts vs. Commanders Odds
- Spread: Indianapolis Colts -4.5 (-106), Washington Commanders +4.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 46.5 (-108), Under 46.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts -213, Washington Commanders +188
Click here for the latest Colts vs. Commanders Odds
Colts vs. Commanders Line Movement and Betting Splits
Indianapolis spent much of the week between -3.5 and -4.5 across the market, with some books briefly dropping as low as -3 before the Colts returned to -4.5 on the current board. The total opened around 46.5, climbed as high as 47.5 during the week and has returned to 46.5.
Earlier-week betting splits produced an interesting divide. Washington was attracting 58% of spread tickets, while Indianapolis held 56% of the spread handle, creating a larger-average-wager profile on the Colts despite the Commanders receiving more individual bets. The market subsequently moving back toward Indianapolis only strengthens the significance of laying -4.5 rather than chasing a larger number later.
Colts vs. Commanders Team News and Injuries
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis suffered a significant late blow when Keenan Allen was downgraded from questionable to out because of a groin injury. Alec Pierce is already on injured reserve with a heel issue, leaving Jones without two important receivers and pushing Josh Downs into an even larger role alongside Tyler Warren, Darius Slayton and the rest of a thinned-out receiving group. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was elevated from the practice squad to add depth.
Ashton Dulin is questionable after returning to full practice following an ankle injury that cost him the previous two games. Indianapolis otherwise avoided major new absences, making the depleted receiver room the clear personnel concern entering Sunday.
Washington Commanders
Daniels is officially out with the dislocated left elbow he suffered in Week 2, leaving Mariota to make his second consecutive start. Daniels practiced on a limited basis throughout the week but Washington elected to give him additional recovery time rather than bring him back in London.
Washington is also without running back Rachaad White and starting guard Sam Cosmi, while Terry McLaurin is questionable after a hamstring issue surfaced late in the week. Safety Nick Cross is out and Percy Butler is questionable, although linebacker Frankie Luvu and tight end Chig Okonkwo are returning after missing time.
The Commanders also brought Austin Ekeler back this week after White's injury and placed linebacker Leo Chenal on injured reserve following surgery for a neck fracture. Ekeler gives Washington another receiving option out of the backfield, but his workload is difficult to project in his first game back following last season's Achilles injury.
Colts vs. Commanders Prediction
The most important part of Washington's Week 3 victory is separating Mariota's strong performance from everything that happened around him. Three touchdowns without an interception against Seattle deserve credit, but Washington needed a 3-0 turnover advantage to overcome a game in which it was comprehensively outgained.
That becomes difficult to repeat. Indianapolis just won despite committing three turnovers itself, meaning the Colts were good enough down to down to survive the exact type of possession disadvantage that fueled Washington's upset. If Jones simply brings his ball security back toward normal levels, Indianapolis should control more of Sunday's game.
Washington's run defense presents a real challenge for Taylor. The Commanders have allowed only 3.8 yards per carry through three games and entered Week 4 among the NFL's strongest teams at creating run stuffs, so Indianapolis cannot expect to simply hand Taylor the ball 25 times and overwhelm the front.
That makes Jones' matchup with the Washington secondary especially important. Josh Downs has emerged as his most reliable target, while Warren gives Indianapolis a large intermediate target against linebackers and safeties. The loss of Allen and Pierce reduces the Colts' vertical and possession options, but Washington's coverage has been vulnerable enough for Indianapolis to create offense through Downs, Warren and play action if the protection holds.
The Commanders have an even more difficult personnel equation. Mariota may be capable of keeping the offense functional, but playing without Daniels and White while potentially being without McLaurin removes much of Washington's explosiveness. Cosmi's absence also weakens the interior protection against a Colts front led by DeForest Buckner.
Indianapolis' defense remains the biggest concern with the wager. One improved performance against Houston does not erase a brutal opening two weeks, and Mariota's mobility can punish an undisciplined rush. Washington can stay competitive if it creates another efficient rushing game and avoids obvious passing downs.
The FairPlay AI projection provides one of the strongest model edges on this early slate. Indianapolis is projected to win by 6.5 points with a 70% win probability, compared with the actual sportsbook line of Colts -4.5. That creates roughly two points of projected spread value on Indianapolis without asking the Colts to lay a full touchdown.
The number is also manageable from a game-script perspective. Indianapolis does not need a blowout. A 27-20 or 24-17 result is enough, and the combination of Washington's quarterback downgrade, offensive injuries and likely turnover regression gives the Colts multiple paths to creating that margin.
Colts vs. Commanders Best Bet
- Best Bet: Colts -4.5 (-106) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Indianapolis has the stronger quarterback situation, fewer disruptive injuries across the overall roster and approximately two points of FairPlay AI value against the current market. Washington's Week 3 win was fueled by a turnover margin that will be difficult to reproduce, and the absence of Daniels, White and Cosmi makes it harder for Mariota to keep pace if the Colts establish an early lead.
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