Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 4 Odds
The Dallas Cowboys make the short trip to Houston for an in-state matchup between teams desperate to avoid another early-season loss. Can Dak Prescott continue moving the ball at a high level while C.J. Stroud gets Nico Collins back into the Texans offense? Check out this Cowboys vs. Texans prediction and best bet for Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadCowboys vs. Texans Prediction: Can Texans Finally Get Win in Week 4 with Nico Collins Return?
Dallas visits Houston as a three-point underdog despite showing substantial offensive life through the opening three weeks. The Texans are still searching for their first victory and are favored by a field goal with a total of 48.5.
The matchup pairs a productive Cowboys passing offense against Houston's dangerous defensive front. On the other side, Dallas has aggressively addressed its secondary by acquiring Joey Porter Jr. just days before facing Stroud and a returning Collins.
Cowboys vs. Texans Recent Results
Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Dallas lost 34-31 to Baltimore in Rio after another late defensive breakdown. Prescott completed 25 of 40 passes for 276 yards, CeeDee Lamb produced 112 receiving yards and George Pickens added 82 as Dallas moved the ball effectively against a strong opponent.
The Cowboys also found more success on the ground, but the defense again failed to protect the offense's work. Baltimore reached field-goal range in the final seconds before Tyler Loop ended the game with a 56-yarder.
Houston Texans (0-3)
Houston lost 19-17 at Indianapolis despite taking its first lead with 1:48 remaining. The defense gave the Texans a chance, but Indianapolis immediately answered with the game-winning field-goal drive.
Stroud has been forced to operate behind an offensive line that has struggled to consistently protect him, placing a heavy burden on the passing game. Getting Collins back gives Houston a badly needed field-stretching and contested-catch option.
Cowboys vs. Texans Head to Head
- November 18, 2024: Houston Texans 34, Dallas Cowboys 10
- December 11, 2022: Dallas Cowboys 27, Houston Texans 23
- October 7, 2018: Houston Texans 19, Dallas Cowboys 16 (OT)
- October 5, 2014: Dallas Cowboys 20, Houston Texans 17 (OT)
Three of the last four meetings have been decided by four points or fewer, with Houston's 34-10 win in 2024 standing as the exception.
Cowboys vs. Texans Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas
- How to Watch: FOX
Cowboys vs. Texans Odds
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-110), Houston Texans -3 (-105)
- Total Points: Over 48.5 (-106), Under 48.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys +135, Houston Texans -148
Click here for the latest Cowboys vs. Texans Odds
Cowboys vs. Texans Line Movement and Betting Splits
Dallas opened around +2.5 before moving to +3 on the supplied board, a small adjustment toward Houston and an important half-point because it moves the Cowboys onto the key number. The total has risen from approximately 47.5 to 48.5.
The movement is relatively modest compared with several other Week 4 games. That makes the difference between Dallas +2.5 and +3 more valuable than the direction of the move itself.
Cowboys vs. Texans Team News and Injuries
Dallas Cowboys
Cornerback Cobie Durant and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown are out, but Dallas gets reinforcements with Malik Hooker and Shavon Revel carrying no final game designation after full Friday practices.
The major roster change is Porter, acquired from Pittsburgh for a 2027 sixth-round pick and 2028 second-round pick. His immediate availability gives Dallas another physical outside corner as it tries to repair a secondary that has already cost the team games.
Houston Texans
Collins returned to full practice Friday and carries no game designation after dealing with a hamstring injury. His return immediately changes how Dallas must allocate coverage against Stroud.
Houston will be without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and safety M.J. Stewart. Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall are questionable, while Will Anderson Jr. progressed to full participation and has no designation.
Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction
Dallas is difficult to downgrade as aggressively as its 1-2 record suggests because Prescott is moving the offense. A road game against Houston's pass rush is a serious test, but the Cowboys have enough receiving talent to punish the Texans when protection holds.
Houston's best defensive path is Anderson and the front winning early. Dallas cannot allow Prescott to spend the afternoon in obvious passing situations against one of the league's more disruptive fronts. The renewed effectiveness of the rushing attack against Baltimore needs to carry over.
The opposite matchup is equally interesting. Houston gets Collins back just as Dallas loses Durant, but Porter and the returning Revel give the Cowboys far more coverage flexibility than they had one week ago. Even a limited first role for Porter changes the ceiling of the cornerback room.
Stroud can certainly expose Dallas if the Cowboys' pass rush remains quiet. Houston's protection issues, however, make this one of the better opportunities for Dallas to finally turn pressure into sacks and force the Texans behind schedule.
FairPlay AI is dramatically more bullish on Dallas than the market. The model makes the Cowboys a 0.5-point favorite with a 51% win probability, while the sportsbook market is giving them +3. That represents roughly 3.5 points of spread value, the largest model-to-market discrepancy among these selected early bets.
Getting the full field goal is crucial. Houston can be the slightly better defensive team and still fail to cover if Prescott continues playing at his current level. A 23-21 or 27-24 type of game is enough, and the model believes Dallas should actually be the narrow favorite.
Cowboys vs. Texans Best Bet
- Best Bet: Cowboys +3 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
The key number combines with the strongest FairPlay AI spread discrepancy of this group. Dallas has offensive advantages that its record does not fully capture, while the addition of Porter gives the defense a badly needed response to Houston getting Collins back.
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