Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 4 Odds
The Miami Dolphins travel to Minnesota searching for their first win of the season against an undefeated Vikings team dealing with the loss of its top offensive weapon. Can Malik Willis keep Miami competitive while Kyler Murray tries to move Minnesota's offense without Justin Jefferson? Check out this Dolphins vs. Vikings prediction and best bet for Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadDolphins vs. Vikings Prediction: Can Justin Jefferson, Vikings Roll At Home Against Weak Dolphins Side?
Miami heads to U.S. Bank Stadium at 0-3 after showing more competitiveness in a 24-10 loss to Kansas City than the final score suggests. Minnesota is 3-0 after beating Tampa Bay 23-16, but the Vikings now have to adjust without Jefferson against a Dolphins team getting a full 10 points at the preferred number.
The matchup is built around Minnesota's defense and whether Miami can survive its pressure packages. The Vikings have the much stronger early-season résumé, but injuries on both offenses and a total below 40 create a game environment where laying double digits becomes uncomfortable.
Dolphins vs. Vikings Recent Results
Miami Dolphins (0-3)
Miami lost 24-10 to Kansas City in Week 3 but remained within one possession deep into the fourth quarter. Willis helped the Dolphins produce their longest opening drive of the season and showed some ability to create outside structure, but Miami again struggled to turn sustained possessions into enough points.
The bigger setback was losing De'Von Achane to a season-ending knee injury. Miami is already operating with a young offense, and removing its most explosive back places even more responsibility on Willis and a reshuffled skill group.
Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
Minnesota remained perfect with a 23-16 road win over Tampa Bay. The Vikings won despite producing only 230 total yards, leaning on defense, special teams and timely plays rather than sustained offensive dominance.
Kyler Murray connected with Jordan Addison for a long touchdown, but Jefferson left early with an ankle injury. Minnesota has continued winning without consistently generating high-end offensive production, which becomes important when asking the Vikings to cover a double-digit number.
Dolphins vs. Vikings Head to Head
- October 16, 2022: Minnesota Vikings 24, Miami Dolphins 16
- December 16, 2018: Minnesota Vikings 41, Miami Dolphins 17
- December 21, 2014: Miami Dolphins 37, Minnesota Vikings 35
- September 19, 2010: Miami Dolphins 14, Minnesota Vikings 10
Minnesota has won the last two meetings, although the teams have not faced each other since 2022. The more relevant angle is that three of the last four meetings stayed within eight points, which fits the type of lower-scoring game projected Sunday.
Dolphins vs. Vikings Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Time: 4:05 PM ET
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
- How to Watch: FOX
Dolphins vs. Vikings Odds
- Spread: Miami Dolphins +9.5 (+102), Minnesota Vikings -9.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 38.5 (-108), Under 38.5 (-107)
- Moneyline: Miami Dolphins +430, Minnesota Vikings -510
Click here for the latest Dolphins vs. Vikings Odds
Dolphins vs. Vikings Line Movement and Betting Splits
The biggest move has come on the total, which has fallen from the low 40s to 38.5 as injuries have stripped explosive talent from both offenses. Minnesota remains priced around a double-digit favorite depending on the book, with +10 available on Miami at heavier juice.
Minnesota is attracting roughly two-thirds of the spread tickets and handle, so the market is not hiding where the broader support sits. That makes the availability of Dolphins +10 more interesting in a game where the scoring expectation has dropped so substantially.
Dolphins vs. Vikings Team News and Injuries
Miami Dolphins
Achane is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered against Kansas City. Jaylen Wright is set to return after missing Week 3 and should combine with Ollie Gordon II for the majority of the backfield work.
Rookie receiver Caleb Douglas is also out with an ankle injury, removing another explosive option from Willis' passing game. Edge defender Rob Beal Jr. and cornerback Storm Duck are out as well, although Miami enters healthier along the offensive line with Aaron Brewer cleared to play.
Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson has been ruled out with the ankle sprain he suffered against Tampa Bay. That should push more targets toward Addison and T.J. Hockenson while forcing Minnesota to function without the receiver who normally dictates coverage structure.
Cornerback Charles Demmings is also out, while Blake Cashman returned to full practice and carries no game designation. Aaron Jones is available after receiving a lighter practice workload during the week.
Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction
Minnesota has earned its 3-0 record, but the Vikings have not consistently played offense at a level that fits a double-digit favorite. They managed just 230 yards against Tampa Bay and now lose the player most capable of turning an ordinary possession into an explosive touchdown.
Jefferson's absence affects more than his individual targets. Miami can devote additional attention to Addison without constantly rotating coverage toward Jefferson, and Minnesota has fewer ways to punish aggressive defensive looks downfield.
The difficult part for Miami is protecting Willis. Minnesota's defense has been one of the league's most disruptive units, and Brian Flores will test every communication point along the Dolphins' protection. Willis' mobility becomes critical because Miami cannot afford a series of sacks that repeatedly create third-and-long situations.
Achane's injury also lowers Miami's offensive ceiling, but Wright gives the Dolphins a legitimate replacement option rather than forcing the offense to completely abandon the run. Miami does not need to score 27 points for this wager to work. In a game totaled at 38.5, reaching the mid-teens can be enough.
The FairPlay AI projection creates an important spread discrepancy. Minnesota is projected as an eight-point favorite, while Miami is available at +10. That gives the Dolphins roughly two points of model value even though the Vikings still carry a 77% projected win probability.
That distinction matters. Minnesota can be substantially more likely to win the game and still be overpriced at double digits. A 23-14 or 20-13 Vikings victory would fit both the low total and the AI's view while comfortably cashing Miami +10.
Dolphins vs. Vikings Best Bet
- Best Bet: Dolphins +10 (-115) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Miami is not being asked to win. It only needs to remain within double digits against a Minnesota offense missing Jefferson in a game priced below 40 total points. The FairPlay projection of Vikings -8 reinforces the value of securing the full +10 rather than taking the shorter number on the main board.
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