Jets vs. Bears Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 4 Odds
The New York Jets visit the Chicago Bears after both teams showed encouraging offensive signs in Week 3 despite very different outcomes. Can Geno Smith continue his excellent start while Chicago turns to Tyson Bagent with Caleb Williams unavailable? Check out this Jets vs. Bears prediction and best bet for Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadJets vs. Bears Prediction: Will Bears Find Similar Success Despite Replacing Case Keenum with Tyson Bagent in Week 4?
New York travels to Soldier Field as a 3.5-point underdog against a 2-1 Chicago team. The total sits at 43 after the Bears officially ruled Williams out with a hamstring injury.
The quarterback matchup now heavily influences the handicap. Smith has been one of the NFL's most efficient passers through three games, while Bagent is expected to get the start after Chicago used Case Keenum to beat Philadelphia on Monday night.
Jets vs. Bears Recent Results
New York Jets (1-2)
The Jets lost 31-24 at Detroit but nearly completed a 14-point fourth-quarter comeback. Smith threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns, while Garrett Wilson and rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq each topped 100 receiving yards.
Smith was especially impressive under pressure, completing 11 of 12 pressured attempts for 147 yards. His command of the offense gives New York a legitimate quarterback advantage entering Chicago.
Chicago Bears (2-1)
Chicago dominated Philadelphia 27-7 behind Keenum and an opportunistic defense. Keenum completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards, threw two touchdowns and added another score on the ground.
The defense was equally impressive, shutting Philadelphia out after halftime and forcing three turnovers. Chicago has now won two straight after losing Williams during its Week 2 defeat.
Jets vs. Bears Head to Head
- November 27, 2022: New York Jets 31, Chicago Bears 10
- October 28, 2018: Chicago Bears 24, New York Jets 10
- September 22, 2014: Chicago Bears 27, New York Jets 19
- December 26, 2010: Chicago Bears 38, New York Jets 34
Chicago has won three of the last four meetings, but New York dominated the most recent matchup 31-10 in 2022.
Jets vs. Bears Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
- How to Watch: FOX
Jets vs. Bears Odds
- Spread: New York Jets +3.5 (+105), Chicago Bears -3.5 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-105)
- Moneyline: New York Jets +160, Chicago Bears -178
Click here for the latest Jets vs. Bears Odds
Jets vs. Bears Line Movement and Betting Splits
New York was as high as +8.5 on the opener before the Williams injury reshaped this matchup. The Jets are now only +3.5, while the total has fallen from approximately 45.5 to 43.
That is an enormous adjustment, but the current number still gives New York the hook above the key number of three. The question is whether Chicago's backup quarterback situation deserves even more adjustment.
Jets vs. Bears Team News and Injuries
New York Jets
The Jets have significant offensive absences. Breece Hall is out with a quadriceps injury, Adonai Mitchell is out with a finger injury, guard Dylan Parham is out with a knee injury and Sadiq is out with a thumb injury after his breakout game in Detroit.
Edge Kingsley Enagbare and tight end Kenyon Sadiq's replacement-depth situation also merit attention, with Enagbare questionable and several offensive roles needing to be redistributed. Jeremy Ruckert practiced fully and becomes particularly important at tight end.
Chicago Bears
Williams is officially out with the hamstring injury that has now cost him a second game. Chicago declined to announce a starter Friday, but Bagent is expected to get the call after clearing concussion protocol.
Starting offensive lineman Braxton Jones is also out, along with defensive back Kyler Gordon, linebacker Noah Sewell and defensive lineman Shemar Turner. Cam Lewis is doubtful. D'Andre Swift returned to full practice Friday and carries no game designation.
Jets vs. Bears Prediction
New York's injury list prevents this from being a simple quarterback handicap. Losing Hall, Mitchell and a tight end who just went over 100 yards takes substantial skill-position talent away from Smith.
Even so, Smith is the most trustworthy quarterback in this game. His performance against Detroit was not simply a product of clean pockets. He repeatedly delivered accurately under pressure, an important trait against a Chicago defense that just overwhelmed Philadelphia.
Bagent is capable of keeping Chicago functional. The Bears would not be turning to a completely inexperienced player, and Ben Johnson has already shown he can construct a workable plan around backup quarterbacks. But Bagent still represents a meaningful downgrade from Williams, particularly when Chicago needs explosive plays rather than simply managing the game.
The Jets defense should allow New York to stay within the number if it avoids giving Chicago short fields. Without Williams' improvisational ceiling, the Bears have more pressure to sustain long drives and consistently convert third downs.
FairPlay AI essentially agrees with the broad market adjustment but leaves a small edge on New York. Chicago is projected -3 rather than the actual -3.5, meaning the model sees roughly half a point of value on the Jets.
That half-point is disproportionately useful because it crosses the key number. A Chicago field-goal victory becomes a Jets cover, and with Smith playing the better quarterback football entering Sunday, New York has a credible chance to push this game into the final possession.
Jets vs. Bears Best Bet
- Best Bet: Jets +3.5 (-108) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
There are legitimate concerns around New York's depleted skill group, but the quarterback edge and the hook above three are difficult to ignore. Chicago can win behind its defense and running game without creating enough separation to cover 3.5.
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