NFL Week 4 Best Betting Trends: Targeting Consistent Player Props for Sunday, October 4th
Sunday's NFL Week 4 slate features several player props backed by strong recent trends, including markets in Patriots vs. Bills, Cowboys vs. Texans, Rams vs. Eagles, Packers vs. Buccaneers and Chargers vs. Seahawks. Can Ty Johnson, Kyren Williams, Kenneth Gainwell and Cooper Kupp continue producing around favorable thresholds while David Montgomery remains below his rushing number? Check out these top 5 betting trends for NFL Week 4 on Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadNFL Best Betting Trends for Week 4: Targeting Ty Johnson, Cooper Kupp, and More
The Week 4 Sunday slate offers five player props where the recent results have repeatedly landed on the same side of the current number. Ty Johnson leads the group with a nine-of-10 hit rate, while the other four selections have each cashed in eight of their last 10 games.
The AI projections also support all five trend directions, giving this card stronger alignment than one built purely around historical results. Three of the Overs come with extremely modest receiving thresholds, while Montgomery's rushing Under has a projection sitting more than six yards below the listed number.
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NFL Best Betting Trends Week 4
1. Ty Johnson Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-111) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Projection: 15.9 Receiving Yards
- Trend Hit: Over in 9 of last 10 games
Johnson owns the strongest recent trend on the card, exceeding 12.5 receiving yards in nine of his last 10 games. The threshold remains small enough that this does not require a major receiving workload, with two short catches or one productive play potentially doing most of the work.
The AI projection provides additional support at 15.9 yards, giving Johnson more than three yards of separation above the line. Combining that projection with a 90% recent hit rate makes this one of the cleaner trend-driven receiving Overs on Sunday's slate.
2. David Montgomery Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- AI Projection: 39.3 Rushing Yards
- Trend Hit: Under in 8 of last 10 games
Montgomery has stayed below 45.5 rushing yards in eight of his last 10 games, making the Under one of the strongest sustained trends available. Unlike several low receiving props on the card, this wager is heavily dependent on workload and efficiency over multiple carries rather than one play.
The projection agrees with the recent results. Montgomery is projected for only 39.3 rushing yards, more than six yards below the current line, giving the Under both historical and model support instead of relying on the trend alone.
3. Kyren Williams Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-113) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Projection: 18.7 Receiving Yards
- Trend Hit: Over in 8 of last 10 games
Williams has cleared 13.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games, and the line remains low for a running back who can create yardage on checkdowns and designed touches. Two receptions can be enough to threaten the number without requiring him to become a major part of the passing game.
The AI projection sits at 18.7 yards, more than five yards above the threshold. That gives this Over one of the larger projection cushions on the card while the 80% recent hit rate provides additional evidence that 13.5 remains an attainable number.
4. Kenneth Gainwell Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (-113) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Projection: 12.6 Receiving Yards
- Trend Hit: Over in 8 of last 10 games
Gainwell has exceeded 8.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games, and only nine yards are required to make it nine of 11. That low threshold makes the prop attractive even without substantial target volume, as one productive reception or two short catches can be enough.
The AI projection of 12.6 yards sits comfortably above the current line and points in the same direction as the trend. With both indicators supporting the Over, Gainwell does not need an outlier performance for this bet to cash.
5. Cooper Kupp Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-113) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- AI Projection: 24.7 Receiving Yards
- Trend Hit: Over in 8 of last 10 games
Kupp has surpassed 21.5 receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games, and the current threshold remains manageable for a receiver who can accumulate yardage through several different types of routes. Three or four routine completions can be enough without requiring a huge target share or explosive touchdown.
The model projects Kupp for 24.7 receiving yards, placing him modestly above the line and reinforcing the recent trend. The projection edge is smaller than some of the other selections, but an 80% hit rate at a number this low still gives the Over a strong trend-based case.
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