Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Week 4 Odds
The Green Bay Packers travel to Tampa Bay with both teams trying to recover from difficult starts and the Buccaneers preparing to start a rookie quarterback. Can Jordan Love get Green Bay's offense back on track while Jalon Daniels brings a different dimension to Tampa Bay? Check out this Packers vs. Buccaneers prediction and best bet for Sunday, October 4.
Peter Alexis - October 4, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadPackers vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Can Jalon Daniels Spark Struggling Bucs Offense Amid Baker Mayfield Injury?
Green Bay visits Tampa Bay as a three-point road favorite with the total down to just 39. The number has been dramatically reshaped by Baker Mayfield's thumb injury and the announcement that undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start.
The low total is understandable, but both defenses enter with vulnerabilities and Green Bay just participated in a 49-point game despite playing poorly for long stretches.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Recent Results
Green Bay Packers (1-2)
Green Bay was beaten 35-14 by Atlanta at Lambeau Field, allowing 498 yards and 27 consecutive points after taking an early 7-0 lead. The Falcons controlled possession for more than 37 minutes and converted 60% of their third downs.
Jordan Love still threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns, while Matthew Golden reached 100 receiving yards and Christian Watson added 96 yards and a score. The bigger offensive failure was a running game that produced only 17 yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)
Tampa Bay fell 23-16 to Minnesota and remains winless. The Buccaneers finished with only 243 net yards, went 2-of-17 on third down and lost Mayfield to a dislocated thumb late in the fourth quarter.
The offense also had an 85-yard Chris Godwin touchdown wiped out by penalty, illustrating that Tampa Bay did create a few explosive opportunities even during an otherwise poor offensive performance.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Head to Head
- December 17, 2023: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Green Bay Packers 20
- September 25, 2022: Green Bay Packers 14, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12
- January 24, 2021: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Green Bay Packers 26
- October 18, 2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Green Bay Packers 10
- December 3, 2017: Green Bay Packers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 (OT)
Tampa Bay has won three of the last four meetings, including the 2020 NFC Championship Game, although the rosters and quarterback situations have changed dramatically since those matchups.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- How to Watch: FOX
Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds
- Spread: Green Bay Packers -3 (-110), Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+100)
- Total Points: Over 39 (-106), Under 39 (-110)
- Moneyline: Green Bay Packers -165, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +145
Click here for the latest Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds
Packers vs. Buccaneers Line Movement and Betting Splits
This total has experienced one of the largest adjustments of the week, falling from an opener around 47.5 all the way to 39 after Mayfield's injury. Green Bay has simultaneously moved from roughly -1.5 to -3 on the supplied board.
The quarterback downgrade is legitimate, but approximately eight points have already been stripped from the total. The question is whether the market has gone too far in treating Daniels' first start as almost entirely destructive to scoring.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Team News and Injuries
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay will be without guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk, creating real concerns along the interior offensive line. Defensive linemen Warren Brinson and Anthony Campbell are also out, while linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and center/guard Jager Burton are questionable.
The Packers also placed Jayden Reed on injured reserve, and he is set to undergo season-ending neck surgery. Green Bay has responded by reshuffling its receiving and offensive-line depth.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield is out with the dislocated right thumb, making Daniels the confirmed starter. The undrafted rookie threw for 239 yards and a touchdown during the preseason while also showing legitimate mobility, and Sunday will be his first NFL start.
Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving are both questionable after practicing during the week. Tampa Bay will also be without edge defender Reuben Bain Jr., tight end Ko Kieft and cornerback Benjamin Morrison, while Yaya Diaby and SirVocea Dennis have also been managing injuries.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction
There is no question why this total collapsed. Replacing Mayfield with an undrafted rookie making his first career start deserves a substantial adjustment, particularly after Tampa Bay went 2-of-17 on third down with Mayfield for most of last week's game.
The issue is price. A total of 39 does not require Daniels to duplicate Mayfield's normal production. Tampa Bay can score 17 points and still put the over in excellent position if Love and the Packers reach the low-to-mid 20s.
Daniels also brings a different source of offense. He can extend plays and create yardage with his legs, and Tampa Bay's preseason offense scored 30 of its 33 points on drives he directed. A mobile rookie can create volatility, including explosive scrambles, busted coverages and short fields off mistakes.
Green Bay's defense provides another reason not to automatically assume Tampa Bay disappears offensively. Atlanta just produced 498 yards and 35 points while dominating the Packers on the ground. With Green Bay missing additional defensive-line depth, Tampa Bay has a path to simplifying Daniels' assignment with rushing volume and movement concepts.
The Packers should also have scoring opportunities. Love threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns even in the ugly Atlanta loss, and Tampa Bay enters without Bain and Morrison while several other defenders are less than 100%. A Green Bay offense that reaches 24 points immediately lowers the burden on Daniels.
FairPlay AI is the important warning sign. The model projects only 37 total points, two below the actual market of 39, so this selection does not have AI support. The case for the over is instead that Mayfield's absence has triggered an extreme market correction from roughly 47.5, creating value if Daniels can merely keep Tampa Bay functional rather than completely replacing Mayfield.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Best Bet
- Best Bet: Over 39 (-106) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
This is the most contrarian of the nine selections because both the market move and FairPlay AI lean lower. The value comes from how far the number has fallen. A 24-17 game clears 39, and Green Bay's defensive issues plus Daniels' mobility give Tampa Bay enough paths to reach the scoring contribution required.
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