3 Best Bets for Ravens vs. Falcons on Sunday Night Football
The Baltimore Ravens visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football with Lamar Jackson ruled out, forcing Baltimore to adjust its offense without its franchise quarterback. Can Michael Penix Jr. and Mark Andrews take advantage of the altered matchup under the primetime lights? Check out these Ravens vs. Falcons 3 best bets for Sunday, October 11.
Peter Alexis - October 11, 2026, 6:45 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadRavens vs. Falcons Best Bets: Targeting Michael Penix Jr., Mark Andrews Props on Sunday Night Football
Baltimore heads to Atlanta for an 8:20 PM ET matchup with Jackson's absence completely changing the outlook for the Ravens offense. Atlanta now gets a home matchup against a backup quarterback, while Penix and the Falcons have an opportunity to dictate more of the game script than initially expected.
The quarterback change also creates uncertainty around Baltimore's pace, passing efficiency and overall scoring ceiling. Atlanta's ability to move the football against the Ravens defense will be equally important, particularly if the Falcons can force Baltimore to play from behind without Jackson available.
Ravens vs. Falcons Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Time: 8:20 PM ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
- How to Watch: NBC
Ravens vs. Falcons Odds
- Spread: Baltimore Ravens +3, Atlanta Falcons -3
- Total Points: Over 44, Under 44
- Moneyline: Baltimore Ravens +145, Atlanta Falcons -175
Click here for the latest Ravens vs. Falcons Odds
Ravens vs. Falcons Best Bets Breakdown
1. Michael Penix Jr. Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-115) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Michael Penix Jr. has cleared this 217.5-yard line in both of his 2026 starts, averaging 239.5 passing yards per game. His efficiency is underpinned by a 73.33% completion rate and the elite form of Drake London, who is averaging 113.67 receiving yards per game over his last three appearances. The matchup favors the passing game as Baltimore deals with significant injuries to cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) and pass rusher Trey Hendrickson (finger) as of October 9, which should reduce pressure on the pocket and loosen coverage windows.
With Atlanta utilizing a 51.46% pass split, volume should be sufficient to surpass this threshold. We are accepting the risk that Penix has a limited regular season sample size, which could lead to high distribution variance if the game script shifts heavily toward the run.
2. Under 45.0 (-118) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
This matchup features two offenses that rely heavily on their ground games, which should keep the clock moving and limit total possessions. Atlanta utilizes a 48.54% rush rate, led by Bijan Robinson’s 137.0 rushing yards per game over his last three outings. Baltimore counters with Derrick Henry, who is averaging 21.67 carries per game. Furthermore, Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury—which sidelined him for October 9 practices—suggests a more conservative offensive approach or the deployment of backup Tyler Huntley.
The model projects a total of 42.07 points, providing a nearly three-point buffer under the key 45-point threshold. We are accepting the risk that explosive playmakers like Robinson or Henry could break long scoring runs that defy a slow-paced game script.
3. Mark Andrews Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-189) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mark Andrews remains the primary middle-of-the-field target for Baltimore, and this 24.5-yard line is notably low for a player with 4,384 career receiving yards. In the event Lamar Jackson is limited by his ankle injury sustained in Week 4 or if Tyler Huntley starts, Andrews serves as the high-percentage safety valve. Baltimore’s offensive scheme currently utilizes a 62.66% pass split, providing ample opportunity for Andrews to clear this yardage in just two or three standard receptions.
Atlanta’s defense is allowing 23.0 points per game and may focus heavily on containing outside threats, leaving intermediate areas open. We are accepting the risk that Baltimore’s game plan shifts extremely toward Derrick Henry on early downs, which could cap the total passing volume available for Andrews.
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