RBC Canadian Open First Round Leader Picks & Predictions: Back Cam Smith For A Fast Start

RBC Canadian Open First Round Leader Picks & Predictions: Back Cam Smith For A Fast Start

It was another electric week on the PGA Tour, as this time Billy Horschel took down the Memorial after a strong weekend! We now return to the RBC Canadian Open, for the first staging of this event since Rory McIlroy's 2019 victory at Hamilton Golf and Country Club.

This week, the RBC Canadian Open returns to St. George's Golf and Country Club in the capital, as a bolster crowd is likely to descend on Toronto, for the last event before this year's U.S. Open!

Before we begin breaking down The RBC Canadian Open, it is worth noting that DraftKings Sportsbook have an amazing offer for the PGA Tour right now. You can boost odds on any PGA Tour market to 20-1 here, as you bet $5 and win $100 with this DraftKings promo code. Bet on Head-to-Heads, 3-balls, make/miss the cut and more and get 20-1 odds with this insane offer! This offer is a guaranteed payout, so there is no doubt that you will go home with $100 when betting $5 on the RBC Canadian Open this week. Just click the link and be on your way to a 20x return on your investment, guaranteed!

RBC Canadian Open First Round Leader Strategy

Having not seen this course for 12 years, it is hard to build a really solid plan, but if we look at who was there or thereabouts after Round 1 then, we might be able to discover which golf courses will correlate.

It looks like we are going to be in for some wet weather on Thursday AM as well, softening up the golf course, which could play into the early starters hands, despite the wind being at its lowest from 5pm onward.

In 2010, Brent Delahoussaye shot an opening-round 62 at this golf course. Remember him? No, nor do I, which means there is little to learn from him.

Delahoussaye's 62 on the opening-day, and winner, Carl Pettersson's Saturday round of 60 do however suggest a low number could be out there on any given day. In fact there was a round of 65 or better shot every day that week, as Delahoussaye opened with a 62, Kevin Sutherland matched that on Friday, while Tim Herron (63) and Tim Clark (64) both broke the 65 barrier as well. Pettersson's 60 is the course record and three better than anyone else that day, but Bryce Molder shot a 63 and Jeff Quiney a 64 on moving day as well. Finally, four players shot a 65 on Sunday, and three more shot 66's on payday.

Looking at the 2010 final leaderboard, there appears to crossover between the RBC Heritage, hosted by Harbour Town, and the PLAYERS Championship at Sawgrass, so those are two courses worth bearing in mind. Carl Pettersson won the Heritage and this event, while Luke Donald has top-3's in both. Dean Wilson who finished between them in 2nd, had a top-10 at the PLAYERS. Luke Donald also had a runner-up finish at the PLAYERS, and Tim Clark and Matt Kuchar who both finished 4th here in 2010, won the PLAYERS, with Clark doing it the same year this event was last here. Jeff Quinney who was also 4th here, finished 3rd and 6th at the PLAYERS and Greg Chalmers and Bryce Molder who tied with Quinney, also finished 9th and T12 at the PLAYERS respectively.

All in all, the PLAYERS Championship looks like one of the stronger correlations.

Who Are The Fastest Starters In This Field Based on 2021-22 Stats?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in this field based on the Round 1 Scoring Average this season. We will look at where they rank in Round 1 Scoring Average, along with their lowest Thursday score of the season, and whether they have held any opening-day leads. Cameron Smith

1st in Round 1 Scoring Average this season

Lowest opening round this season: 64

First Round leads this season: 2 (Tournament of Champions, and co-lead at Memorial last week)

Scottie Scheffler

5th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season

Lowest opening round this season: 63 (RSM Classic)

First Round leads this season: 1 (Charles Schwab Challenge)

Jhonattan Vegas

9th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season

Lowest opening round this season: 64 (Twice)

First Round leads this season: 1 (Co-led Valspar Championship)

Jonathan Byrd

10th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season

Lowest opening round this season: 64 (Twice)

First Round leads this season: 1 (Co-led Mexico Open)

Wyndham Clark

11th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season

Lowest opening round this season: 65 (American Express)

First Round leads this season: 0

What Score Is Required To Lead Here After Round 1?

We do not have enough data to go on for this course specifically, but the opening round of 62 here in 2010 may give us a clue. Add to that, that the average round 1 leading score in the past 10 Canadian Open's sits at 64.1, and it is perhaps a 63 to split the two, that we should set as a target! It is hard to predict a golfer will go out and shoot a 62, so while it is perhaps best to be conservative with a 63, the first three rounds here in 2010 saw that score met, so a 62 would not be a surprise either.

RBC Canadian Open: The First Round Leader Favorites

Scottie Scheffler +2200

I used to always oppose Scheffler as a favorite in this market, and while I won't be backing him this week either, he now has to be respected here, after leading the Charles Schwab Challenge after day one.

That isn't the worst course to compare to this one, in terms of it being short and rewarding better iron play over a strong driver, so maybe that will play into Scheffler's hands again.

I won't back him as favorite, but he is respected again.

Rory McIlroy +2200

Through fear of sounding like a broken record, Rory McIlroy continues to be a firm favorite for me in this market.

He comes into this event as the defending champion, and while it was a different course, Hamilton which he won at in 2019 might not be the worse pointer for this one.

I won't do it again because I will end up following him off a cliff, but he has already led twice after day one this season, and 32 times in total in his career, which is an outrageous figure.

He has only played this event once, and won it on a fairly similar golf course, with rounds of 67-66-64-61, so he was without doubt in my thoughts again.

Cameron Smith +2600

Cameron Smith is my first selection, so read more on him below.

Justin Thomas +2600

Thomas was within two of the opening-day lead again at the PGA Championship, and that makes it 11 leads or co-leads on day one and 35 times in total that he has been within two, which suggests, like Rory, that he loves an opening round.

He has certainly got the bit between his teeth after missing the cut on his first start since the PGA Championship victory, and he will look for some good signs going into the U.S. Open!

Thomas finished 5th at the Byron Nelson the week before winning the PGA Championship, and he has prepped in the same way for this major, going to the tournament the week before, but also taking a scouting trip to next week's major venue in the same week.

A fast start is never out the realm of possibilities with Thomas.

Sam Burns +2900

Sam Burns has been within two of the lead 13 times in his career, and led or co-led on three occasions.

His most recent co-lead came at the Valspar Championship in March, which he won, and he was within two of the opening-day lead at the PLAYERS, so that is an encouraging sign for any Burns backers.

The Valspar Championship which he has won twice, and the Charles Schwab Challenge are both shorter tests akin to this one this week, and that may be beneficial.

Burns is another who has a top-10 at the Heritage and a fast start at the PLAYERS under his belt, so ticks multiple boxes.

RBC Canadian Open First Round Leader Selections

Cameron Smith +2600

Cameron Smith has played this event twice and missed the cut in each of them, but he showed last week he can overcome poor event form, and he is a far better player than he was in 2016 and 2017. This is also a better golf course for him than Glen Abbey was, and a strong performance seems likely.

Smith won the PLAYERS Championship and has a top-10 at the RBC Heritage, so fits the course correlation model nicely, and given he is the fastest starter on TOUR this season, he should be considered.

Smith has held five first-round leads in his career, with two of them coming this year, one of them last week, and another last season coming at the correlating Heritage, where he opened with a 62.

If you go back to 2015, he also sat 2 strokes behind the round 1 leader at the RBC Heritage, so again, that looks a good course setup for him, which is an encouraging sign this week.

Sign me up.

Cameron Smith will tee off #1 tee at 12:53pm with Sam Burns and Scottie Scheffler

Adam Hadwin +5000

Hadwin has won the Valspar, finished 2nd twice on the three-course rotation in the desert and has a T9 finish at the PLAYERS, all pointers I like this week.

Hadwin finished 4th in this event way back in 2011 and had a chance to win, and he'd added two more top-7 finishes at his home open, including at Hamilton in 2019, which I hope stacks up as a similar test.

He's been within two of the first round lead 21 times in his career, including when co-leader at the Charles Schwab two weeks ago, the Saudi International in February and Sanderson Farms last October.

Strong opening rounds on multiple occasions at the Wyndham, the Mayakoba and the RSM all give me further confidence, and he will look to put on a show in Round 1 for his home fans.

Hadwin will tee off #9 tee at 7:02 am with Mackenzie Hughes and Mike Weir, in an all-Canadian affair!

Dylan Frittelli +9000

Frittelli has been within two of the first round lead 18 times in his career, dating back to 2016 and the most notable of those came when co-leading the 2020 Masters after day one.

He has also opened with a 65 to sit one back at the RBC Heritage, in 2020, and more recently he opened with a 67 at the Charles Schwab to sit one back, which I don't hate as a comp either.

He's won the John Deere, finished 8th at the Heritage, and in his only start in this event on a similar course in 2019, he made the cut but also sat 25th after both rounds 1 and 2.

Frittelli can start fast, and with his tee time, I like his chances of doing that here.

Dylan Frittelli will tee off #1 tee at 7:44 am with Robert Streb and Tyler Duncan.

Tyler Duncan +10000

I will take Frittelli's playing partner, Tyler Duncan as well, hoping that at least one of them can break out of that early tee time and make a run for us.

I have bet Duncan in the outright market based on his short-course form, which has seen him finish 15th at Colonial, 12th at the Heritage and T25 at the Valspar in 2022 alone. His win came at the RSM where you are given permission to make birdies and Duncan can do that.

It feels like he should be Canadian with a name like Tyler Duncan, but alas he is an American, having been born in Columbus, Ohio.

Multiple good finishes at the Heritage peaked my interest, as did his other short course form, and given he finished T18 in this event when at Glen Abbey, which was far less suitable, he has every chance to go well.

Tyler Duncan will tee off #1 tee at 7:44 am with Dylan Frittelli and Robert Streb.