Sony Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Mitchell, Hughes to Impress at the Sony

Sony Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Mitchell, Hughes to Impress at the Sony

The PGA Tour resumed at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week, but this week is the first time we will see a full-field event in 2023. This means there is some tremendous value to be had, as we look for the best sleepers and value picks at the 2023 Sony Open.

After spending a week in Hawaii for the Tournament of Champions, the PGA Tour now moves to Waialae Country Club in what will be a completely different prospect altogether. Instead of being a field of 40 players that have either won in the past year or made it to the Tour Championship, there is now a real mix of players teeing it up! From elites to low-ranked players, there are many contrasting players in this field.

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What is Required to Succeed at the Sony Open?

Before we look at our favorite sleepers and value picks for the Sony Open, it is important to understand what we need from a player, in order to succeed at this event.

Ultimately this is a short course, where distance matters very little, and it is instead accuracy with short irons and wedges that come to the fore in this event. This means that we should see a low-scoring event and one that can be won by all types of players in the field.

It is somewhat refreshing for an event to be so open, and not one that is just limited to those that hit it the longest.

To differentiate yourself from the pack, these are the key stats that affect your chances of winning the Sony Open:

• SG: Bermuda Putting
• Par 3 Scoring
• Par 4 Scoring
• Approaches from 125-150 Yards

When it comes to birdie fests, the natural inclination is to look at Par 5 Scoring, but as there are only two Par 5's at Waialae, and they are reachable in two, to all players, so it is not such a big part of how players set themselves apart.

Of the last five winners of this event, two have ranked inside the top 5 or Par 5 Scoring, two have ranked 13th and 18th, and Patton Kizzire won when ranking just 48th in Par 5 Scoring, so excelling in that department doesn't seem to be a pre-requisite to winning. Instead, it seems Par 3 and Par 4 Scoring are more important.

All of the last five winners of this event have ranked inside the top 6 for both Par 3 and Par 4 Scoring the week they won.

Approaches from 125-150 yards could well be key, as this is a range where a lot of wedges and short-iron approaches will come from.

Every winner over the past five years has ranked inside the top 6 for Putting Average, and all but one winner (Kevin Na) ranked inside the top 3 for SG Putting, so this is clearly a putting contest. Given the Bermuda Greens here, it is essential your chosen golfer is comfortable putting on this surface.

Sony Open Trends

Here are some trends, which may help in picking out a winner for the 2023 Sony Open. Remember, some of these trends could look entirely different if a player lost in a playoff, or there could just be a shot difference between each player, so I would advise not getting too caught up in things that could be very volatile.

• 17 of the last 24 winners of the Sony Open had played the Tournament of Champions the week before
• 5 of the last 8 winners of the Sony Open had already won in the Fall or in the Swing Season
• Only 4 winners of this event, since 2000 have been under 30

These trends suggest:

A recent runout is a big positive

Current form before the Christmas shutdown can still be relevant

Older players can/do win this event, rather than hotshot rookies

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win the Sony Open?

Here are the odds of the last 10 winners of the Sony Open. As you will see, there are a wide range of winners of this event, including favorites and outsiders.

2022 - Hideki Matsuyama +2000

2021 - Kevin Na +8000

2020 - Cam Smith +5500

2019 - Matt Kuchar +4000

2018 - Patton Kizzire +8000

2017 - Justin Thomas +1400

2016 - Fabian Gomez +10000

2015 - Jimmy Walker +1800

2014 - Jimmy Walker +4000

2013 - Russell Henley +10000

While there are a bunch of quality names, including Cameron Smith, and Kevin Na who have won this event recently, they were still a big price at the time of the event, based on form, and/or current status. It is important to remember Cam Smith's first solo win on the PGA Tour came here, and Kevin Na hadn't won for two years at that point.

All in all, it is fair to say that value picks at +4000 and bigger clearly have a shot at winning this event, as they have done in 7 of the last 10 renewals of this event.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Sony Open

Here are my selections for this week's Sony Open, who I believe represent good value, at +4000 and bigger.

Keith Mitchell +4000 Outright (PointsBet) / +375 Top 10 Finish (Bet365)

Keith Mitchell impressed at various stages throughout 2022, and he is currently the 57th-ranked golfer in the world. He will now have his eyes set on that all-important top-50 ranking and all the bonuses that come with that.

He can climb into that range with a win here this week at the Sony Open, an event he's impressed at in the past.

In five starts at the Sony Open, Mitchell has made four cuts, with a best finish of 7th, in 2022.

When finishing 16th in 2019, he was actually in 3rd place going into the final round, and while he would have needed a seven-under final round to win, he was at least right there at the top of the leaderboard, until the final day. It is safe to assume he was pushing too hard for the win, and took some chances, hence the drop on the leaderboard.

When 14th in 2021, he shot middle rounds of 62 and 63 to bounce back from an opening 71, and again was in the top 9 going into the final round. While it was clear from this showing and the one two years prior, that he struggles to put four rounds together here, he does have the ability and nous to go low here at Waialae.

Mackenzie Hughes +7000 Outright (Bet365) / +650 Top 10 (Bet365)

Mackenzie Hughes has not yet put four rounds together at the Sony Open, which is why a 19th here two years ago remains his best finish.

I am willing to bet that he improves on that this week though, and at least challenges the top 10, as on the two occasions he's made the cut here, over five starts, he's shown plenty of promise.

On his Sony Open debut, Hughes finished 27th, posting a 65 and three rounds of 68. This was a solid enough effort, which could be built on, as he got to grips with the course. That wasn't to be as he missed his next three cuts here, before finishing 19th last time out.

When 19th here in 2021, Hughes opened with a 65 to sit 10th after day one, and closed with weekend rounds of 65-66, to combat a disappointing Friday 69. Given his current form though, I am willing to bet he can put four solid rounds together this time, rather than just flashing with lower rounds.

Hughes won the Sanderson Farms to kick off his Swing Season and has since followed that up with a 23rd at the ZOZO, a 16th at the Houston Open, and a 21st place finish at the Tournament of Champions last week.

The Canadian finished 16th in Houston, but he was better placed for most of the week, opening with a 66 to sit 4th on day one, and following with two rounds of 68, to sit 8th going into Sunday. Just last week, Hughes opened with a 66 to sit 5th on day one and closed with a 65, and it was just two poor middle rounds that cost him a better finish.

Four rounds is clearly a sticking point for Hughes at both this course, and indeed in some of his recent events, but he is the type that will benefit from a shorter course and one who can get streaky with his putter.

Adam Svensson +8000 Outright (General) / +700 Top 10 (Bet365)

Adam Svensson played last week for the first time since his RSM Classic win back in November. While his effort last week was hardly inspiring, it did give him a chance to shake the rust off - an opportunity he has not been afforded before, when coming to this event.

On his debut here in 2019, Svennson opened with a 61 to lead on day one, eventually finishing 43rd. Fast forward to last year though, and he finished in 7th place, with rounds of 64, 65, and two 67's.

This was a marked improvement, and now he comes here as a winner for the first time, which should provide another layer of confidence.

Many will be put off by his performance last week, but players have won here in the past off the back of a poor week at the Tournament of Champions, so I am not concerned.

The RSM Classic provides a similar test to this, and there has been plenty of crossover between those two events, which is another positive sign.