American Express Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hoge, Theegala at the Amex

American Express Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hoge, Theegala at the Amex

The PGA Tour now leaves Hawaii, and heads to Palm Springs, California, for the 2023 American Express. A huge field will compete this week, including five of the top seven players in the world (Rory Mcilroy and Cameron Smith the exceptions), as they look to take down this Pro-Am event.

This is an event well-known for value picks, but will that be the case this week, with so many of the World's leading players teeing it up? Beyond the top 10 in the OWGR Rankings, we also have Tony Finau (#12), Sam Burns (#13), Tom Kim (#14), Cameron Young (#17), and Sungjae Im (#19) teeing it up this week, meaning 12 of the world's top 20 players are here for The American Express.

Still, given how this can turn into a putting contest, and the fact it is still too early in the year to get a real grasp of where everyone is at with the games, it still feels like a week where we can take a chance on some sleeper and value picks, at the 2023 American Express.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 American Express, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, get $200 guaranteed on ANY American Express market this week. That means you can boost your favorite outright, top 10, or any other prop bet, to 40-1, and lock in an instant payout, even if it loses!

What is Required to Succeed at The American Express?

Before we look at our favorite sleepers and value picks for The American Express, it is important to understand what we need from a player, in order to succeed at this event.

This three-course rotation sets up for another birdie-fest, in order to make things easier and more enjoyable for the pro-am partners. How a player performs in their two rounds at the tougher PGA West (Stadium Course) may well determine how their week goes. On the flip side of that, if a player cannot make enough putts on the Nicklaus Course or La Quinta Country Club, if and when they are playing as easy as usual, that too can be a big stumbling block.

Ultimately this event is a putting contest, and while we won't put it quite as eloquently as Jon Rahm did in the past, you cannot win this event without making a TON of birdie putts. One round in the 70s can kill your chances here, so you better be prepared to shoot in the mid '60s all week.

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of The American Express this week:

• SG: Bermuda Putting
• Par 5 Scoring
• SG: Tee to Green
• Birdie or Better Percentage

Unlike last week, where we were talking about a birdie-fest that didn't necessarily need you to rank highly in Par 5 Scoring, The American Express does. Three of the last five winners have ranked 1st for Par 5 Scoring the week they won here. Hudson Swafford was the worst performer in terms of Par 5 Scoring over the past five renewals, and he ranked 6th.

Of the last five winners of this event, only Jon Rahm (2018) ranked outside the top 10 in SG: Putting for the week, as he ranked 28th the week he won. Rahm did however rank 8th in terms of Putting Average, which is the better statistic to look at for this event, as two of the three courses do not have shot link data. Two of the last five winners ranked 1st in Putting Average, and other than Rahm, Si Woo Kim ranked the worst among the remaining four winners in terms of Putting Average - he ranked 11th.

This only covers the two rounds on the Stadium Course, but four of the last five winners ranked inside the top 12 in terms of SG Tee-to-Green the week they won, Adam Long being the exception, ranking 48th.

Birdie or Better Percentage is always worth a glance ahead of an event like this, and there is a decent bank of events to go on now, thanks to the Swing Season.

The American Express Trends

Here are some trends, which may help in picking out a winner for the 2023 American Express. As you will see below, there are two players, at very opposite ends of the scale that were able to break these trends and win here, and a shot or two here and there could have changed the trends altogether, so I would suggest using these in tie-breaker situations rather than basing your picks around them.

• 11 of the past 12 winners of The American Express played in one of the two Hawaii events in January. Since settling on its current three course-rotation in 2016, all seven winners have played in Hawaii before winning here. The last winner to win this event on his first start of the calendar year was Bill Haas (2015)
• Since 2016, only one of the seven winners (Jon Rahm 2018) won here without playing the Sony Open the start before. Of the six players to play the Sony Open before their win, only Adam Long (2019) and Andrew Landry (2020) bounced back from a missed cut in Hawaii to win here.
• 10 of the past 12 winners of The American Express had posted a top 15 finish in one of their seven most recent starts before winning here. The exceptions were Adam Long (2019) and Hudson Swafford (2022)
• 8 of the past 9 winners of The American Express had played this event at least once before getting their win. Adam Long (2019) was again the exception.

As you can see from these trends:

Adam Long broke multiple trends when winning in 2019

Recent form and/or starts appear fairly essential

At least playing in the Sony Open appears beneficial before heading to this event

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win the Sony Open?

Here are the odds of the last 7 winners of The American Express, since the event settled on its current three-course rotation of the PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Course, and La Quinta Country Club.

2022 - Hudson Swafford +20000

2021 - Si Woo Kim +6000

2020 - Andre Landry +20000

2019 - Adam Long +60000

2018 - Jon Rahm +1000

2017 - Hudson Swafford +6600

2016 - Jason Dufner +4000

As we can see from the odds above, longshots have an excellent record here, with only one player (Jon Rahm 2018) winning this event at odds less than +4000. The difference this week could be that the field is indeed stronger than usual. Five of the world's top 7 golfers are playing this week, as Scottie Scheffler (#2), Patrick Cantlay (#4), Jon Rahm (#5), Xander Schauffele (#6), and Will Zalatoris (#7) all make the trip to Palm Springs this year!

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 American Express

Here are my selections for this week's American Express, who are currently +4000 or bigger in the outright market.

Tom Hoge +4500 Outright (DraftKings) / +425 Top 10 Finish (Bet365)

Tom Hoge doesn't necessarily feel like a Sleeper Pick per se, as there has been a lot of talk about him this season, but at +4500 to win outright, and +425 for a top 10 finish, he certainly falls into the value pick category.

Since 2016, Hoge has played here six times and has certainly been feast or famine in terms of results. He has missed three of six cuts and finished 57th once, but it is his two other finishes that stand out, and provide hope.

Hoge finished 2nd here 12 months ago and was one shot back going into the final round, before eventually finishing two shots shy of the eventual winner, Hudson Swafford, who was winning the event for a second time.

That was the second time Hoge contended at The American Express, as he finished 6th two years before as well. These two efforts are probably more reflective of his ability here, as his lead-in form is better this time around.

In addition to his two top 6 finishes here, Hoge has 22nd and 33rd place finishes at the Pete Dye-designed PLAYERS Championship, and there are a fair few similarities between the Stadium Course, and TPC Sawgrass. Hoge was the 36-hole leader at the PLAYERS in 2022.

With the strength of the field this week, you could argue he is much more suited to the top 10 market than he is the outright market, but he is playing some of the best golf of his career right now and comes to this event as a PGA Tour winner for the first time.

Hoge is my favorite value pick of the week, at the 2023 American Express.

Sahith Theegala +6600 (Unibet) / +500 Top 10 (Bet365)

I was torn between Sahith Theegala and Andrew Putnam in this range, but I decided to opt for Theegala for a bit of the unknown. What I mean by that, is by now, we know what Andre Putnam is, he's a player of limited ability, who can get hot, and is capable of contending, but Theegala has the potential to be much better than that.

It is clear Theegala has work still to do, which is why he is sitting in the sleeper and value pick range, rather than nearer the top of the board, but I think he is more than capable of contending at the 2023 American Express.

The closest Theegala has come to winning on the PGA Tour was at the Pete Dye-designed TPC River Highlands, where he birdied the 17th hole to take a lead at the 2022 Travelers Championship, before double-bogeying the last hole and losing out by two, to Xander Schauffele.

Theegala was also the 54-hole leader in Phoenix last year, an event Scottie Scheffler won, and he also had a chance of winning the RSM Classic back in November, as he went into the final round two strokes back, before finishing 2nd.

Near misses at a Pete Dye design (2nd at the Travelers), a multi-course event (2nd at the RSM), and a desert course (3rd in Phoenix), all point towards a big effort here, at another birdie-fest. Clearly, this is the sort of setup Theegala thrives in, and now it is time to build on his effort from last year here.

Theegala finished 33rd in his Amex debut, which was largely down to his second-round 62 at the Nicklaus Course. He bounced back from a poor opening-round 72 to shoot that low round on Friday, and a third-round 68 at the Stadium Course ensured he made the cut. He was poor in the final round, shooting a 75 to fall 22 places, but his middle rounds showed what he can do at this event. The 3rd round 68 was encouraging in itself because if his two poor rounds of 72 and 75 came there, I would be concerned about his suitability for the course. As it is, a 72 at La Quinta can be overlooked, as he's more than capable of tearing that course apart on any given day. He teed off in the afternoon that day, and if he can get an earlier tee time or better conditions, La Quinta will be there for the taking.

The Pepperdine graduate has had three legitimate shots at winning on the PGA Tour in the space of a year, and he can get that win in season two. Theegala appears to possess winning upside, and that makes him a valuable pick in this value and sleeper picks range, for the 2023 American Express.

David Lipsky +18000 Outright (DraftKings) / +1200 Top 10 (DraftKings)

David Lipsky couldn't quite keep pace with the leaders at the Sony Open last week, but he was two shots back at both the 36-hole and 54-hole stage there and came up four shots shy of Si Woo Kim in the end. This was the latest in a run of encouraging results for Lipsky, who is finding his feet at the PGA Tour level.

Lipsky has already won twice on the DP World Tour and once on the Korn Ferry Tour, and now is the time for him to step up and have a go at winning at this level as well. His T4 finish last week was his best yet on the PGA Tour, and it adds to three more top 10s he's posted on the PGA Tour, since 2021.

A player clearly trending in the right direction, it may have taken the Northwestern product a bit longer than expected to find his game on the PGA Tour, but he is doing it now.

His T4 last week was his third top-22 finish of the season so far, as he was 10th at the Mayakoba, and T22 at the Houston Open before the winter break.

In addition to his current form, Lipsky has made six starts on Pete Dye designs across the PGA and Korn Ferry Tour, including the Zurich Classic team event in 2022. In those starts, he has a win and a 2nd on the Korn Ferry Tour, a 4th at the Zurich with his partner, Aaron Rai, and a 14th place finish at this event 12 months ago.

Lipsky ranked 4th in SG Approach and 12th in SG Tee-to-Green last week, put in a solid effort on his course debut here 12 months ago, and even when finishing just 44th in his most recent desert start, at the Shriners, he posted a final round 65!

Now in his second full season on the PGA Tour, Lipsky can make the step up he surely desires.