Farmers Insurance Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Spaun, Rose to Impress

Farmers Insurance Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Spaun, Rose to Impress

The PGA Tour stays in California for another week, this time for the Farmers Insurance Open an event steeped in history. This is an event well known for Tiger Woods's seven victories, as well as the site of his U.S. Open victory.

There is only one player from the World's Top 5 in the field this week, as Jon Rahm looks to win a third-straight event on the PGA Tour, his second at this event, and third at Torrey Pines. Four other players from the top 10 make an appearance this week, as #6 Xander Schauffele, #7 Will Zalatoris, #8 Collin Morikawa, and #9 Justin Thomas all tee it up in this famous event.

Like last week, there will be multiple courses used this week, the North and South Courses, with the former where the scoring needs to be done. Players will play one round at each before the 36-hole cut, before playing two rounds at the South Course over the weekend. The North Course can play 3 shots easier than the South at times, so birdies must be made on that course to compete here.

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What is Required to Succeed at The Farmers Insurance Open?

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open:

• SG: Tee to Green
• Bogey Avoidance
• Proximity 200+

This is a complete examination that will test every facet of your game, so rather than focusing on one strokes-gained metric, the all-encompassing SG Tee-to-Green makes perfect sense here. Jason Day is the only player to win here, ranking outside the top 20 in this metric over the past 10 years.

Bogey Avoidance will be key here, as the tired line of "Par's are good" actually stands up here. PGA Tour events normally focus on birdies, but being able to save par hole-by-hole at the South Course is imperative.

Then being able to stick long irons closer, either on the par 5's when looking for birdies, or on the longer par 4's is important. This means Proximity from 200+ yards is a good metric to look at.

Farmers Insurance Open Trends

To help you potentially unearth a strong value or sleeper pick for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, here are four trends that might help you narrow down your search criteria!

• 12 of the past 14 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open had played at least once in the calendar year
• 19 of the last 21 winners were at least 27 years old
• 12 of the last 18 winners were ranked inside the top 33 in the Official Word Golf Rankings when they won
• 25 of the last 29 winners had already won at least four times

As you can see from these trends:

A recent start is incredibly useful

Experience in general counts, young players don't tend to win this event very often

The event is generally won by a player in the top 33 in the World Rankings

Players that have won four or more times in their career tend to dominate this event

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open. You will see there has been a range of winners here, in terms of odds, but generally speaking, the very best players win this event.

2022 - Luke List +8000

2021 - Patrick Reed +2500

2020 - Marc Leishman +5500

2019 - Justin Rose +1400

2018 - Jason Day +2200

2017 - Jon Rahm +5500

2016 - Brandt Snedeker +1800

2015 - Jason Day +1300

2014 - Scott Stallings +25000

2013 - Tiger Woods +750

Any event that lists Tiger Woods, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Justin Rose, and Patrick Reed among its most recent winners would generally not be considered an event suitable for value and sleeper picks. The good news is, Jon Rahm was winning for the first time on the PGA Tour when he won, so he was +5500 back then. March Leishman won at the same number here in 2020, Luke List was +8000 when he won last year, and Scott Stallings was a massive +25000 in 2014. That means longshots can come through here, and should absolutely be considered if they are classy enough.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open

Here are my selections for this week's Farmers Insurance Open, who are currently +4000 or bigger in the outright market.

J.J. Spaun 60-1 Outright (PointsBet)

J.J. Spaun is playing some of the best golf of his career, and while his win came in April last year, he has generally performed at a high level since.

So far this season, Spaun has posted three 15th-place finishes in the Swing Season, followed by a 5th at the Tournament of Champions, and a 12th at the Sony Open to start 2023.

He now returns to an event where he made four of seven cuts, and has a top-9 finish to his name. Spaun is also a San Diego State University alum, so he is sure to feel at home on his visit here.

Spaun ranked 5th in SG Tee to Green in both Hawaii events to start the year, and 21st and 10th in SG: Approach, so he is certainly dialed in. That form, plus the fact he comes to this event as a PGA Tour winner for the first time, suggests he's a good bet.

Spaun is my favorite value pick of the week, at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

Justin Rose +6600 Outright (BetMGM)

Justin Rose is at a bit of a crossroads in his career, and as a former World No.1 and a Major Champion, Rose needs to turn his career around once more.

Rose is currently ranked 78th in the Official World Gold Rankings, and outside of the all-important top 50, which gets him into all the big events. A big performance here would edge him closer to that number, and a win will almost certainly move him into the top 50.

That is motivation enough for Rose, and he now returns to an event he has performed incredibly well in before. Rose has a win and three more top-8's in this event over his last five starts, and he can add to that this week, after a strong finish last week.

Rose posted three rounds of 67 or better last week and closed it out with a 65 at the Stadium Course, which will give him extra confidence coming into this event.

At +6600, this course specialist and former major winner makes all the sense in the world, especially as he fits most of the important trends.

Robby Shelton +15000 Outright (Unibet)

Robby Shelton has been playing well so far this season, taking full advantage of his playing rights this time around.

Shelton won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour, and that is the second time the 27-year-old boasted a two-win season at that level, in his young career. Four wins on the Korn Ferry since 2019 then suggest he's capable of making the step up to this level, and this course looks like a good one for him.

Perhaps surprisingly, the former Alabama star has played this event twice, finishing 36th on debut, before coming back a year later and finishing 16th in 2021. That was largely down to his 64 at the North Course on Friday, showing the importance of going low when given that opportunity on that course.

Shelton has yet to break 70 at the South Course, but he's also never shot worse than 73, which is pretty impressive on his first two starts in this event.

He is in great form right now, finishing 6th last week at the American Express, which adds to his 10th at the RSM Classic and his 15th at the Shriners, during the Swing Season.

Coming into this event with three top-15s to his name, and two years of event form behind him, Shelton looks capable of stepping up and threatening the top of the leaderboard here at a big number!