Genesis Invitational Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Fitzpatrick, Scott to Contend at Riviera

Genesis Invitational Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Fitzpatrick, Scott to Contend at Riviera

The big news this week is that Tiger Woods is back in the field at Riviera Country Club, as he plays in his first proper PGA Tour event, since the 2022 Open Championship. Interestingly Riviera is a course that Tiger Woods has never won at, and he's not played an event more times that the Genesis Invitational without winning.

It is too soon for Woods to be winning tournaments again, but who can we look at, to win on this famed layout?

The best of the best are here once more, carrying over from a strong WM Phoenix Open field. Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy tee it up again, as does last week's winner, and World No.1, Scottie Scheffler. Also teeing it up are major winners, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, and Jordan Spieth, and course winner, Max Homa. Add to that list, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and an abundance of other talented golfers, and this is clearly going to be a difficult event to win.

With that said, this is an event that throws up a surprise winner, which gives us hope in our sleepers and value picks column, so who rates out as the best to take on the top of the board, at the 2023 Genesis Invitational?

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Genesis Invitational, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 when your first Moneyline wager wins. That means you can boost any of the favorites in the Genesis Invitational outright market to an effective 30-1 today!

What is Required to Succeed at the 2023 Genesis Invitational?

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 Genesis Invitational

• SG: Tee to Green
• Par 4 Scoring
• Poa Annua Putting

Of the last five winners at Riviera, only J.B. Holmes (11th), has ranked outside the top-3 in SG Tee to Green and won.

Of the last five winners at Riviera, all five have ranked inside the top 6 for Par 4 Performance the week they won this event.

Poa Annua putting requires a different type of approach as these greens can be difficult to navigate. That is why experience on these greens, and Poa Annua in general is key. No winner of this event in the past five years has ranked outside the top 15 in Putting Average the week they won.

Genesis Invitational Trends

To help you potentially unearth a strong value or sleeper pick for the 2023 Genesis Invitational, here are multiple trends that might help you narrow down your search criteria!

• 6 of the last 7 winners of the Genesis Invitational had previously finished inside the top 5 of this event (James Hahn the exception)
• 13 of the last 15 winners here had played Riviera five times before winning (Hahn and Joaquin Niemann are the exceptions)
• 15 of the last 15 winners had played Riviera three times before they won
• Riviera has hosted this event 59 times, and on 34 occasions, the tournament has been won by a major winner
• 12 different US Masters winners have won 22 of the last 59 renewals of the Genesis Invitational

These trends suggest we are looking for:

• A major winner
• A player who has played here three times or more and played well
• Prior form at Augusta a plus

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win the Genesis Invitational?

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of the Genesis Invitational

2022 - Joaquin Niemann +6000

2021 - Max Homa +6000

2020 - Adam Scott +3300

2019 - J.B. Holmes +15000

2018 - Bubba Watson +5000

2017 - Dustin Johnson +900

2016 - Bubba Watson +2500

2015 - James Hahn +20000

2014 - Bubba Watson +3300

2013 - John Merrick +25000

The average winning price of the last 10 winners here at Riviera is +8000, which means longshots certainly can prevail here. We have had three winners at 150-1 and bigger here over the past decade, and just one short-priced favorite has won here in that time. Back-to-back 60-1 winners show what can be done here, but those longer-shot winners have also shown class elsewhere. Look for overpriced major winners, with course history to give yourself the best chance of winning as a value and sleeper pick here.

Let's see who rates out as the best of these longshots, as we look for value and sleeper picks for the 2023 Genesis Invitational.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 Genesis Invitational. All of these plays are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, in order to qualify for the value and sleeper pick criteria!

Matt Fitzpatrick Outright +4500 (Claim a $50 Free Bet at DraftKings)

Matt Fitzpatrick was struggling with a neck injury at Pebble Beach, but he played last week at the Phoenix Open, and thanks to a closing 65, he finished in 29th place. This was enough for me to think he could be nearing full fitness again, and if that is the case, he's a great bet this week.

In two starts at Rivieria, Fitzpatrick has finished 30th and 5th, and two years ago he should really have done better, sitting 2nd at the 54-hole stage. Now a major champion since his last visit here, Fitzpatrick has the guile and the talent to win such a historic event, on a course that suits his game.

Fitzpatrick's biggest improvement last year was off the tee, where a pickup in distance saw him contend more often, and eventually win the U.S. Open. While distance isn't necessarily a big factor here, his better ball striking will be, and he has the right game on and around the greens to win a Genesis Invitational.

He is likely this number due to the concern around his neck, but I think that is more than baked into the odds.

45-1 on a major winner, who's shown promising signs last time out, has a top-7 finish at Augusta, and has contended already on this course, is more than acceptable to me.

Adam Scott Outright +5500 ($1000 No Sweat Bet at FanDuel)

With Justin Rose's win and a resurgence from his countryman, Jason Day in recent weeks, Adam Scott will surely feel now is the time for him to step up as well.

The Aussie is playing well with four top 6 finishes in his last nine starts and given he has made the weekend in each start since the 2022 PGA Championship last May, he's clearly in solid form.

That is true of his course form as well, which includes two wins, 15 years apart (2005,2020), and eight total top-11 finishes in 14 starts. Scott has missed just one Genesis Invitational cut and looks like a solid prospect again this week.

Scott finished 4th here 12 months ago, and while the best of his recent finishes have come in a lower grade (2nd Australian Open, 6th Japan Open), Scott also posted back-to-back top 5 finishes in the FedEx Cup, at the FedEx St Jude and BMW Championship.

His efforts in Hawaii were somewhat lackluster to start 2023, but now he returns to one of his favorite courses in the rotation and that can lead to the spark that will kickstart his year.

A major winner at Augusta, who has won at this course twice previously, we couldn't really ask for a better trend fit than Adam Scott.

His T21 at the Sony Open was solid enough to suggest better things are coming for the Aussie.

Justin Rose Outright +8000 (Bet up to $500 Risk-Free at Unibet)

Lastly, I will take a chance on Justin Rose going back-to-back, however hard that is to imagine.

The PGA Tour veteran broke a baron run at Pebble Beach, as he won for the first time since 2019, but he should now be brimming with confidence, as he returns to a course he generally enjoys.

Like Adam Scott in more ways than one, Rose too has a strong record at Riviera, making his first four cuts here as a young player on the PGA Tour, before missing the weekend for the first time in 2008.

He is 7/7 in made cuts since, with two top 9 finishes and two more top 16 finishes to his name at the Genesis Invitational. He could have an even better record than that as well, as when he finished 37th in 2010, he was 4th at the halfway stage, and when 56th on his last start here in 2020, he was 11th after 36 holes. Consistently in and around the top 10 at this golf course, the added confidence he will have taken from his recent win may well be the jolt he needs to get into contention here once more. Rose has posted back-to-back wins on two separate occasions in his career, and while he might not be that player that reached World No.1 in the past, he is still a gamer when he gets in contention, as he proved at Pebble Beach a fortnight ago.