RBC Heritage Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Burns, Poston to Contend at Harbour Town

RBC Heritage Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Burns, Poston to Contend at Harbour Town

There is always a chance of a Masters hangover for players and bettors alike this week, but the RBC Heritage is an excellent event, hosted by a wonderful venue and this year it is bolstered by its elevated event status.

That means almost all of the best golfers in the world are here once again this week, and whilst it feels a little bit of an overload a week after a major, it will make for an intriguing week at Harbour Town.

We are not here to talk about the top of the betting market though, we are looking for the best value on the betting board, as we pick out our favorite bets at 40-1 and bigger, for the RBC Heritage.

This event is generally wide open which means we often see longshots win, but will that change this week, given the elevated field, or will The Masters hangover be too much for those at the top of the field?

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 RBC Heritage, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your golfer wins this weekend, giving you a +3000 odds boost on your favorite bet at Harbour Town.

What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 RBC Heritage

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 RBC Heritage

• SG Approach - As is so often the case at Pete Dye courses, SG Approach is a big focus this week. Each of the last five winners have ranked inside the top 18 in that metric the week they won.
• SG Tee to Green - Each of the last five winners of the RBC Heritage have ranked inside the top 11 the week they won here. The last two winners led the field in this statistic the week they won. With driving less important here than on other courses on the PGA Tour, it is clear an all-round game is required.
• Par 4 Scoring - Each of the last five winners of the RBC Heritage have finished inside the top 5 for Par 4 Scoring the week they won, showing the importance of playing the medium-length holes well this week.

RBC Heritage Trends - How to Find a Winner at Harbour Town

This is a long-running event on the PGA Tour, with Harbour Town a regular host, so we know plenty about this one. Here are some trends to keep in mind this week.

• 8 of the last 11 winners of the RBC Heritage had already recorded at least two top 5 finishes worldwide, in the same year of their win at this event.
• 9 of the last 12 winners of the RBC Heritage had already recorded a T23 finish or better at this course before their win.
• 7 of the last 9 winners of the RBC Heritage had played The Masters the week before. 4 of those 7 had missed the cut at Augusta the week before.
• Since 2000, only one player (Matt Kuchar 5th in 2014) finished inside the top 5 at Augusta the week before winning here

These two trends suggest we are looking for:

• Someone who has posted a top 5 this season
• Someone who played, but wasn’t in contention last week at Augusta
• Someone who has a top 25 finish at this course previously

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The RBC Heritage?

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of The RBC Heritage

2022 - Jordan Spieth +4000

2021 - Stewart Cink +12500

2020 - Webb Simpson +3000

2019 - C.T. Pan +16000

2018 - Satoshi Kodaira +25000

2017 - Wesley Bryan +8000

2016 - Branden Grace +4000

2015 - Jim Furyk +2500

2014 - Matt Kuchar +1800

2013 - Graeme McDowell +4000

7 of the last 10 RBC Heritage winners have been +4000 or bigger pre-tournament, but will the odds continue to lean in favor of longshots, with all the elites here this week?

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 RBC Heritage

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 RBC Heritage. Each of these picks are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, to ensure they meet our sleepers and value picks criteria.

Sam Burns +4000 Outright (Boost Burns to +7000 with DraftKings)

Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick look tremendous value this week, with the former my favorite bet at Harbour Town, but they both miss the cut-off as sleepers this week by a few points. Instead, then, we drop down slightly further on the odds board, to find a recent winner, Sam Burns.

Burns recently won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and with another decent enough performance at Augusta now under his belt, I think he can compete at the Heritage once more.

In three starts at this course, Burns has finished 9th and 39th either side of a missed cut, and considering he has a 6th and a win amongst his last three starts, he looks capable of posting a career-best on this course.

A winner on a Pete Dye course two starts ago, and a player who was 6th going into the weekend, before being beaten by the weather, I like Burns’ winning upside at 40-1, a price he was to win The Masters last week.

It might not look the ideal course for him on paper, but he's capable of putting together the low rounds you need over the weekend here, and of the high-upside players in this range, he represents the best winning value.

J.T. Poston +8000 Outright (Bet $1 on Poston, Get $200 Guaranteed at Bet365)

J.T. Poston is playing solid golf right now relative to his worldwide standing and he can step up in elite company now and win on a course he’s enjoyed success at in the past.

Poston finished 10th at the Valspar Championship three starts ago and followed that up by progressing from a Match Play group that featured, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, and Maverick McNealy. Poston then had to face Scottie Scheffler in the last 16, and he took the defending champion all the way to the 18th hole, losing 1 down in the end.

The modest hitter then went to Augusta last week, made the cut, and finished T34 after a final-round 70 his best round of the week. The Masters is not particularly an event you'd expect Poston to perform well at, so saving his best until Sunday and playing solidly enough, are huge positives, heading into the RBC Heritage.

At this course, his record reads 6-8-MC-3 and I think even with the elite company he would likely find himself in on Sunday, he can go on and win his biggest title yet. As a two-time winner on Tour, we know he’s both capable of winning and is also someone who repeats form.

Back Poston at generous odds of 80-1 on Bet365 Sportsbook.

Ben Martin +17500 Outright (Get a $100 Bonus Bet at Unibet)

This is the second time in 2023 I am going to put Ben Martin up in this sleepers and value picks article, but for good reason.

We put him up at 90-1 to win the Valero Texas Open and whilst he wasn't in contention on the final day, he did finish in a tie for 10th, which was a solid effort.

Martin was 5th in SG Tee to Green in Texas which could be a huge factor this week, as he returns to a course he finished 3rd on, back in 2014. That year was his second full season on the PGA Tour, and he was playing with a lot of confidence. Martin won two Korn Ferry events in 2013 and then won the Shriners Open in October 2014. His 3rd here that season suggests that when at the top of his game he can compete here, and he's not far from that right now.

Yes, Martin will have to deal with a lot stronger field this week than he would have done when contending here 9 years ago, but with no Masters hangover to worry about and a strong bank of current form to lean on, Martin looks like the type that could sandwich himself among the elites on Sunday.

Martin's two best performances on the PGA Tour outside of his win have come when 3rd in 2014 and T4 at The Players in 2015, which is also another Pete Dye design. That latter result is further proof he can mix it with the best when on song, which he is right now.

Back this former PGA Tour winner at 175-1 as he continues his resurgence at the top level.