Mexico Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Wu, Norrman to Win in Mexico

Mexico Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Wu, Norrman to Win in Mexico

After a run of events that featured the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, The Masters, and the elevated RBC Heritage event, we have really come crashing back down to earth the past two weeks.

After watching Davis Riley & Nick Hardy combine for their first PGA Tour wins at the Zurich Classic last week, we are now headed to Mexico, for the 2023 Mexico Open. Jon Rahm returns as the 3-1 favorite to defend his title, whilst Tony Finau and Alex Noren make up just a trio of players in this field, that are ranked inside World's Top 65.

Clearly, this is a tournament bereft of quality, and any sleeper and value picks you make this week will be players outside the top 100 in the OWGR, but that doesn't mean there aren't good bets to make here.

Let's look into what is required to win this event and who could come from the 40-1 range and below to win the Mexico Open.

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What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 Mexico Open

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 Mexico Open

• SG Off-the-Tee - We only have one year of course form to go by, but what we have learned as that big hitters have a clear advantage at this long Paspalum course, and those that are known for gaining strokes off the tee should hold an advantage here
• Proximity 200 Yards+ - It is important to be able to hit long irons here given the length of the course and the winds that can affect the event and make some holes play even longer, so look to those that are hitting the ball well from long range.
• SG Putting (Paspalum Greens) - Paspalum putting is certainly unique and there are some players that relish these surfaces, and some that clearly don't. Look to those who have played well at Mayakoba, the Corales, and the Puerto Rico Open for an idea of who putts well on this tricky surface.

Mexico Open Trends

This event has only been played for one year, so there is little data to create any trends, but here are some key indicators from last year's event that may just help you unearth a gem this week.

• Of the top 5 players in SG Off the Tee here last year, 4 of them finished inside the top 10 on the leaderboard
• Jon Rahm ranked 3rd in the SG Tee to Green Stats and Tony Finau who finished 2nd ranked 1st. Aaron Wise (3rd in T2G) and David Lipsky (5th in T2G) finished in a tie for 6th.
• The top 3 in terms of Driving Distance at this event last year finished 1st, 6th, and 10th respectively.

These trends suggest we are looking for:

• Big hitters who are gaining strokes off the tee
• The Paspalum Greens suggest we should look at form at the Mayakoba, the Corales, and the Puerto Rico Open for hints on who could succeed here

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The Mexico Open?

Jon Rahm won this event last year and he was +300. Tony Finau was also sub 10-1 and he finished 2nd, so based on last year's event, the answer would be no. One year is far too small of a sample size to draw such conclusions though.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Mexico Open

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 Mexico Open. Each of these picks are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, to ensure they meet our sleepers and value picks criteria.

Brandon Wu +6500 Outright (Bet $1, Win $150 Guaranteed on Wu at FanDuel)

Brandon Wu has found some consistency this season, something he was lacking last season, so it is worth revisiting where he played his best golf last season.

Last year, Wu hunted down Jon Rahm on Sunday and closed the gap to just one shot in the end, finishing 2nd behind the irrepressible Spaniard. Now, Wu can go one further as he looks to lock horns with the elites once again.

Wu has already recorded another 2nd place finish this season, finishing runner-up at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and when you add those two 2nd place finishes to his 6th at the Scottish Open and his 3rd and 7th place finishes at the Puerto Rico Open, it is clear Wu plays his best golf at wind-affected courses by the water.

Earlier this season Wu was 11th going into the final round at the Maykoba, eventually finishing 32nd, and he's been in strong form at other big events this season. 14th at the Honda Classic and 19th at The Players Championship is a further indication he's in good enough form to succeed here.

Wu is below average in terms of Driving Distance, but he regularly gains strokes off the tee, so I am happy to overlook his lack of distance at a course he's proven he can perform at.

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Vincent Norrman +15000 Outright (Boost Vincent Normann to +16000 With DraftKings)

Vincent Norrman has yet to find consistency in his game since turning pro, but he made his way onto the PGA Tour via the Korn Ferry Tour last season, and we knew from his play there and his short time on the DP World Tour, that Driving Distance is key to his success.

The Swede ranks 19th in Driving Distance and that puts him amongst the elite on TOUR, which makes him a perfect candidate for this sort of test.

To add further confidence, Norrman's results on potentially correlating courses are encouraging as well.

Earlier this year, Norrman finished 21st at the Puerto Rico Open but went into Sunday in 10th place.

He followed that up with a 16th-place finish at the Corales, where he was just 5 shots back of the lead going into the final round.

Just last week, Norrman played well at the Zurich Classic and now he can take advantage of this weak field once again and post a career-best finish on the PGA Tour this week.

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