Wells Fargo Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Fowler, Davis to Win at Quail Hollow

Wells Fargo Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Fowler, Davis to Win at Quail Hollow

The Zurich Classic and Wells Fargo Championship left golf fans yearning for more once again, and they will get it at the Wells Fargo Championship, at Quail Hollow this week.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are skipping the week, but Rory McIlroy returns as do the large majority of his elite rivals on the PGA Tour.

This means we are once again able to pick out quality players at longer odds than we have seen in recent weeks, thanks to the elevated status of this event.

Let's take a look at what is required to succeed at Quail Hollow, so we can make some informed decisions on who to pick in the sleeper and value range, for the Wells Fargo Championship!

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Wells Fargo Champinship, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed weekend, giving you a guaranteed $150 win at this event this week.

What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship

• Driving Distance - Whilst this course shouldn't just be watered down to a 'bomber's course' as there are some nuances to the test beyond that, but three of the last seven winners at this course led the field in Driving Distance (JB Holmes 2014, Rory McIlroy, 2015, and Justin Thomas at the 2017 PGA Championship.) Rory McIlroy also ranked 2nd for distance in 2021 and Jason Day was 14th in 2018.
• Proximity 175 Yards+ - There are eight Par 4s at Quail Hollow that stretch over 450+ yards, there are three Par 3's that are 175 yards+ and there are also three par 5's, leaving over 56% of approaches coming from 175 yards and beyond. This means you want a player who is comfortable with his long irons.
• SG Putting (Bermuda Greens) - We are back on Bermuda Greens this week, so it is important to look for those that can putt well on this surface.

Wells Fargo Championship Trends

This event has only been played for one year, so there is little data to create any trends, but here are some key indicators from last year's event that may just help you unearth a gem this week.

• Three of the last four course winners are major champions, with Max Homa in 2021 the exception.
• Form at Riviera and Torrey Pines should be inspected further. Max Homa has won at both of those venues and here. J.B. Holmes has won both here and at Riviera and has also lost in a playoff at Torrey Pines. James Hahn has won here and at Riviera.
• Three of the last six course winners have ranked 1st in Driving Distance, with Rory McIlroy also ranking 1st.

These trends suggest we are looking for:

• Big hitters who are gaining strokes off the tee
• Players who have played well at Riviera, Torrey Pines, or both
• Potentially someone who has contended in major championships or won another big event

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The Wells Fargo Championship?

Let's look at the last 10 winners who have won this event when held at this course. In 2020 this event was canceled and in 2017 and 2022 it was held at a different course, as it was hosting the PGA Championship and the Presidents Cup respectively.

2021 - Rory McIlroy +1800

2019 - Max Homa +50000

2018 - Jason Day +2000

2016 - James Hahn +50000

2015 - Rory McIlroy +250

2014 - J.B. Holmes +6600

2013 - Derek Ernst +50000

2012 - Rickie Fowler +5000

2011 - Lucas Glover +11000

2010 - Rory McIlroy +6600

Quite remarkably there have been three 500-1 winners at this event since 2010, which highlights the volatility of this course and event. This may not mean much this time around as it is an elevated event this time whereas before these would have been weaker fields, but I am still confident in my Wells Fargo Sleeper and Value Picks below after looking at the odds of these recent winners.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. Each of these picks are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, to ensure they meet our sleepers and value picks criteria.

Rickie Fowler +4100 Outright (Bet $1, Win $150 Guaranteed on Fowler at FanDuel)

Rickie Fowler is back playing close to elite-level golf once again, and when he's in that sort of form you should stand up and take notice.

Fowler is a 7-time winner across the DP World and PGA Tours and one of those wins came at this very course back in 2012, when he held off Rory McIlroy and D.A. Points, to win his first PGA Tour title.

In 4 of his last 7 starts on the PGA Tour, Fowler has ranked inside the top 9 for SG Approach, and whilst his driver potentially needs too much work for him to contend around this course once more, I will take a chance on him at the odds.

Fowler has 7 top 20 finishes in his last 8 starts, so he's playing incredibly consistent golf, and there is very little reason, other than perhaps his wayward driver, to doubt his ability around this course.

In 10 starts at Quail Hollow, Fowler has posted one win and four more top 6 finishes, including a 4th at the 2017 PGA Championship. On top of his win, Fowler was the 54-hole leader here in 2016 and if he can channel his extremely good course history and couple that with his outstanding current form, then +4100 could look incredibly generous come the weekend.

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Emiliano Grillo +13000 Outright (Win $150 Guaranteed on Emiliano Grillo With DraftKings)

Emiliano Grillo is returning to a course where he has 9th and 14th place finishes under his belt, and he is doing so when in great form, as he's finished 7th and 5th in his past two starts.

The Argentine was once a very strong player week in and week out on the PGA Tour, and whilst he has lost his consistency, largely due to a poor short game, he's found his ball-striking form again, and that is always a good sign ahead of a return to Quail Hollow.

Grillo has been inside the top 12 in SG Tee to Green in his past two starts, and he also led the field in SG Approach last week in Mexico, so there is every reason to be optimistic as he returns to a course we know he can perform at.

Winning upside may be hard to see for Grillo, especially in such an elite field, but at +13000 he is well worth chancing.

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Cam Davis +15000 Outright (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Cam Davis With DraftKings)

Cam Davis is back playing some solid golf once again, and the talented Australian is always worth keeping an eye on, especially when his tee-to-green play returns to something like his best.

That was certainly the case at the RBC Heritage, as Davis ranked 4th in SG Tee to Green and 14th in SG Approach. Davis ranked 7th in SG Off the Tee that week which is a huge plus when coming to a tough driving test like Quail Hollow, and he should be considered a worthy longshot this week.

6th at the Players Championship, a winner of two matches at the WGC Dell Match Play, and then 7th last time out at the RBC Heritage, where his driving was immaculate, Davis will be full of confidence, and the course should be right up his alley this time around, just as it was in 2021.

Davis finished 26th here in 2021, but he was better placed going into Sunday, where he was 13th before a final round 74 saw him slide down the leaderboard.

Given his current form, I am confident he can post his best effort yet at Quail Hollow and the +15000 number looks too big.

Considering you can bet $5, win $150 guaranteed on Cam Davis at the Wells Fargo Championship, this is a no-brainer.