AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Power, Walker to Impress in Texas

AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Power, Walker to Impress in Texas

We are now just a week away from the second major championship of the year, as the world's best prepare to descend on Oak Hill Country Club, for the 2023 PGA Championship. First, though, we are in Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship, and it is a great week for sleepers and value picks.

With most of the best players in the world choosing to skip the week to recover or prepare in their own way for the PGA Championship, there is an opportunity for those middle-of-the-pack type players to come through a grab a victory at TPC Craig Ranch this week.

That is what South Korea's, K.H. Lee has done the past two years in Texas as he has won both renewals hosted by this course in 2021 and 2022.

Last year Lee held off Jordan Spieth, Sebastian Munoz, Hideki Matsuyama, and Xander Schauffele, and in 2021 he beat an in-form Sam Burns by three strokes. Clearly, then, Lee loves this event, but who else can prosper at this birdie-fest?

Let's take a look at how Lee won this event over the past two years and what the 'best of the rest' did in order to contend, so we can establish who represents value in this weaker field this year.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed, just for placing a $150 wager on your favorite golfer pre-event.

What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson

In 2021, KH Lee dominated the event ranking 2nd in SG Approach, 2nd in SG Tee-to-Green, and 9th in SG Putting. A year later he was slightly less dominant from a strokes-gained perspective, but still ranked 5th in SG Tee to Green, 8th in SG Approach and 13th in SG Putting.

In both years the majority of the players finishing T5 or better ranked inside the top 10 for SG Approach and that is the statistic that best correlates with success here. Of the 13 players to finish T5 or better in this event over the past two years, only three have ranked outside the top 10 for SG Approach.

The leader in Par 5 Scoring for the week has finished 1st or 2nd at this event over the past two years, with KH Lee and Sam Burns leading that statistic in the two years it has been played here.

• SG Approach - It is no surprise that the best predictor of success in this birdie-fest event comes via a player's SG Approach numbers. To set up the number of birdies required to win here, you must be dialed in with your irons, and missing too many greens is not an option.
• Par 5 Scoring - Again, if you are going to score well enough to challenge here, do not pass up the opportunities presented by the Par 5s. You are going to need to play these long holes well in order to keep up with the rest of the field.
• SG Putting (Bentgrass Greens) - Back on Bentgrass Greens this week, it is worth looking into how a player putts on this surface, to see if they can improve on recent putting weeks and make more birdies than they have been.

AT&T Byron Nelson Trends

This event has only been played at TPC Craig Ranch for the past two years, so there is little data to create any trends, but here are some key indicators picked out over the past two years.

• In 2022 the top 5 in terms of SG Tee to Green all finished the week inside the top 10 on the leaderboard. In 2021, of the top 5 in SG Tee to Green, four finished the week T3 or better on the leaderboard, Will Zalatoris was the outlier finishing 17th.
• The last three AT&T Byron Nelson Championships have been won by a South Korean (KH Lee x 2 and Sung-hoon Kang) Sang-Moon Bae also won in 2013.

Unfortunately, there is not much to garner from these trends at this stage. With just two years of data, there is little to pin our hopes on, but ultimately if you are among the best in terms of Tee to Green this week, you will likely contend as putting is easier on these smaller, Bentgrass greens.

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The AT&T Byron Nelson Championship?

KH Lee has won this event in both years, and he was +20000 in 2021 and was still +10000 the following year, so yes, sleeper and value picks do win the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship.

Sleepers and Value Selections for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Championship. Each of these picks are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, to ensure they meet our sleepers and value picks criteria.

With three plays at 100-1 and bigger, I have extended my usual three picks to four in this week's sleepers and value picks column.

Seamus Power +4500 Outright (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Power at DraftKings)

Seamus Power hasn't quite hit the same highs this year, as he did in both 2021 and 2022, but he's still flashed some decent results, including his 18th last week.

Add in his 20th at the Phoenix Open and 14th at the Genesis Invitational this year - two courses I like for this event in terms of crossover, then he certainly looks like a decent prospect this week.

Power's iron play hasn't been as hot as it needs to be in recent weeks, but he's returning to a course he's enjoyed over the past two years and an easy test is likely just what he needs to return to form.

The Irishman was 9th here on debut, as he opened up 65-68-67 before a final round 70 robbed him of a chance to move up the leaderboard. Last year it was a similar start, opening with rounds of 66-67, and he closed 69-68, so he's never shot worse than 70 in eight rounds at this course.

I will take a chance Power returns to something close to his best at an easy course at seemingly generous odds.

J.J Spaun +6600 Outright (Get Your First Spaun Bet Paid Back up to $1000 With BetMGM)

I bet on Spaun to win this event last year without reward as he finished T38, and that was very similar to his T47 finish in 2021, so why am I going in again at 66-1?

Simply put, both times Spaun has played here, he has started in quick fashion and faded away, but I think at the third time of asking he can complete the job, and play well for all four rounds.

Spaun led the event after day one in 2021, opening with a round of 63 and following up with a 69 to sit 5th going into the weekend. 72-73 over the weekend meant he slipped away, and it was a similar story in 2022, when he opened with a 66 to sit 7th after day one, and shot two 68s and a 71 to play well but not threaten the leaders after that.

Spaun played well at the Match Play and followed that up with a T22 finish when defending his title at the Valero a week later, and when you add that to a 27th place finish last week, where he was 4th after 36 holes, it is fair to say Spaun is playing well enough again as he returns to a course he enjoys.

His 4th place finish at the Phoenix Open in 2017 gives me further confidence, given the crossover with those that have contended at both that event and this one, and that is just the icing on the cake at 66-1.

Michael Kim +10000 (Bet $1, Get $200 Guaranteed on Michael Kim at Bet365)

Michael Kim is playing some very consistent golf of late, and that is an extension of his uptick in form in 2022 in general. We know at his best Kim is more than capable of winning an event of this magnitude, as he won the John Deere Classic by eight strokes at -26 in 2018.

Making 7 cuts in a row, Kim's results have been highlighted by a 5th at the Puerto Rico Open and a 7th last week, where he was the 2nd best player in terms of SG Approach on Sunday at the Wells Fargo. Add an 11th-place finish at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this year, and clearly, Kim is finding a way to get in the mix once again.

On his debut on this course in 2021, Kim was 27th at the halfway stage, opening with rounds of 69-67 before falling away at the weekend, but he's in much better form right now, and he can start faster and carry the form on over the weekend also.

Kim has 12th (Houston Open) and 21st (Valero) place finishes in Texas to his name already in his career, and he can better both of those by contending at this event this week, whilst in some of the best form of his career so far.

Jimmy Walker +13000 Outright (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Walker With FanDuel)

Jimmy Walker is enjoying a resurgence in form which means he's likely feeling better physically after years of struggling with Lyme Disease, which is great to see.

Walker has now finished inside the top 25 in four-straight events, threatening to contend in multiple occasions, most noticeably at the RBC Heritage where he led after 36 holes and was 4th going into the final round.

The Texas resident has not been able to put four rounds together so far this season, but most weeks he's showing some positive signs, and given he was T22 the last time he played in Texas, at the Valero, and the fact he has a win, a runner-up finish and multiple more top 10s in his home state, it feels like a good time for Walker to take advantage of this run.

He has two 4th place finishes at Riviera, which ties in well with KH Lee and other players that have contended over the past two years here, and now he's back firing close to full cylinder I think he's worth chancing at triple digits, in a field lacking a lot of the best players.