Rocket Mortgage Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Hubbard, Hodges to Win in Detroit

Rocket Mortgage Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Hubbard, Hodges to Win in Detroit

After weeks of stacked fields and strong events, we finally come crashing back to reality at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Moved up in the schedule due to the new structure, this event will now be played a month earlier, but will that have any impact this week?

The depth at the top of the market is perhaps stronger than normal, with Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa leading the way in the Rocket Mortgage Classic odds board but we are still lacking a deep field here.

This event has been part of the schedule since 2019, and whilst there have only been four renewals, we have already seen a wide range of winners. In 2019 we saw Monday Qualifier, Nate Lashley win at huge odds, and then in 2022, we saw Tony Finau outlast Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, and Taylor Pendrith. Add into the mix a win for Bryson DeChambeau over Matthew Wolff and we have really seen it all in a short space of time.

The last three years suggest we should look towards the top of the market for a bet this week, but we have picked out our favorite Rocket Mortage Sleepers and Value Picks above +4000, to bulk out those betting cards!

With Chez Reavie sitting just one back after 54 holes last week, we came close to a +40000 winner, but can we go one step further this week?

Let's take a lock at what is required to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and see if there is anything that will point us to a particular longshot this week.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed, just for placing a $5 wager on your favorite golfer pre-event.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic?

With only four renewals of this event, the jury is still out on what is required to win at Detroit Golf Club, but one thing is for sure, you better make a bunch of birdies this week!

Let's find out which stats have correlated the closest to success here over the years.

• SG Tee-to-Green - Like every week, SG Tee-to-Green is going to be the best indicator of the leading players in this event, as no player has ranked outside the top 4 in SG Tee-to-Green on the week they won the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
• SG Off the Tee - Bryson DeChambeau led the field in SG Off-the-Tee the week he won here in 2020, and Tony Finau ranked 2nd 12 months ago. Cam Davis only ranked 34th the week he won, but he is typically one of the better drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour, whilst Nate Lashley really is the outlier here.
• Birdie or Better Percentage - The winning score here at the Rocket Mortgage Classic has ranged between -18 and -26, so it's clear you are going to need to make a ton of birdies to win this event. Similar to the Travelers last week, making par will likely see you moving backward, as others climb the leaderboards making birdies and eagles.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Trends

With just four renewals of this event so far and a wide array of winners, it seems counter-productive to get bogged down on trends here.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Rocket Mortgage Classic?

Let's take a look at the four winners at Detroit Golf Club and see if longshots are capable of winning this event.

You should note that the top of the market looks a bit stronger this year, which may well skew what we have seen in the past. I do however believe that this event will naturally turn into a bit of a putting competition, which takes away the best player's edge slightly.

To qualify as a Sleeper and Value Pick, you must have been +4000 or bigger pre-tournament, here are the odds of all four winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic since its inception in 2019.

2022 - Tony Finau (+1200)

2021 - Cam Davis (+12500)

2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (+700)

2019 - Nate Lashley (+25000)

Last year, Tony Finau came into this event off the back of a win at the 3M Open the week before, and when Bryson won in 2020, he had posted six-straight top-8 finishes before winning. He later went on to win the U.S. Open in the same year.

Then we have Nate Lashley who was a late addition to the odds board after Monday Qualifying at 250-1 and then Cam Davis who was still a longshot at half the odds and was coming in off the back of a missed cut.

All in all, this looks like a great event to take a chance on a sleeper.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic

Here are the three picks above +4000 that I believe can contend this weekend at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic

Byeong-Hun An +7000 (Get a $250 Bonus When Betting on An at PointsBet)

Now I will straight away address the large elephant in the room. If this is going to turn into a putting contest, do you really want to be betting on Byeong-Hun An? Well, this is a question I have asked myself all day today, and yes, I think at the number, there is still value in betting on An this week.

In 4 of his last 7 starts, An has ranked inside the top 10 for SG Tee-to-Green, ranking 4th on three of those occasions. In the same span, he has also ranked 8th and 20th in SG Approach. It is off the tee where An is doing his best work and that would typically correlate to success here at Detroit Golf Club.

An will need to make his fair share of putts to truly contend, and that is going to be the difference between him finishing top 25 as he has done in 5 of his last 8 events, and being right in contention like he was at the Valero Texas Open in March.

Benny finished 6th at the Valero and that is his best finish of the season so far, and it is his finish there, and his 3rd at the Wyndham Championship in the past that really caught my eye.

This is a Donald Ross course, which explains the crossover we have seen with the Wyndham Championship, but it is last year's leaderboard here, that really drew me to the Texas Open.

In the top 10 alone last year we saw J.J. Spaun and Charley Hoffman who have both won the Valero Texas Open, Matt Wallace who has finished 3rd there, and Wyndham Clark who has also posted a top 20 at TPC San Antonio. Go back over the years and there is plenty more evidence of crossover.

An has played well at courses I like, gets a chance to take on a weaker field whilst in good form, and has a 13th-place finish to his name at this course. He's worth a bet at 70-1!

Mark Hubbard +8000 (Get Your First Rocket Mortgage Bet Paid Back up to $1000 if it Loses)

Mark Hubbard was playing very well leading into the Travelers and was touted as a good value pick there, but his run of made cuts came to an end at 7.

The good news is Hubbard was still excellent in SG Approach for his first two rounds at the Travelers Championship and putted solidly enough to suggest that he can now return to a weaker event and contend.

Hubbard has played here three times and missed two cuts but on his debut, he finished in a tie for 12th and was in 4th place going into the final round. He now returns a better player in strong form, and I think if he's in 4th place going into Sunday again, he might just hang around and contend this time around.

In 3 of his last 7 events, Hubbard has ranked inside the top 3 for SG Approach so his irons and wedges are clearly dialed in, he just needs to take a step forward with the driver, and he can then contend here.

Hubbard has marginally gained strokes in 2 of his 3 starts here, and whilst it was that club that held him back at the Travelers last week, I think this is a good get-right spot.

Lee Hodges +12500 (Get a $250 Bonus When Betting on Hodges With PointsBet)

If the crossover with the Texas Open does come to fruition that is a tick in the box for Lee Hodges who finished T6 there, to post his second-best finish on the PGA Tour so far. He'd also finished T14 on the same course back on the Korn Ferry Tour so he clearly likes that test.

I backed Lee Hodges at the Canadian Open based on a strong finish at the Memorial a week earlier, and he backed that up with another top 25 in Canada.

Hodges looks to be the sort of improving type that can get his first win on the PGA Tour soon, and the Rocket Mortgage Classic looks like the perfect place for him to do so. He comes into the event making 8 of his last 11 cuts, and he now returns to a course he showed a liking for last year.

After 36 holes last year, Hodges found himself in 3rd place and within three of the lead, but a poor 77 on Saturday put an end to his chances before Sunday's final round.

Like Hubbard, Hodges now looks to be potentially taking his game to the next level, so he is more likely to hang around if he finds himself in contention again.