Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Patrick Cantlay Start Strong in 2024?

Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Patrick Cantlay Start Strong in 2024?

The PGA Tour 2024 season kicks off in Maui, Hawaii with the Sentry Tournament of Champions, although the event is no longer exclusive to last year’s actual “champions.” The field has been expanded to include all players who qualified for the second round of the 2023 PGA Tour playoffs. Thus, the 2024 field is comprised of the 59 players that either won last year on Tour or made it to the BMW Championship. Rory McIlroy is the only player who qualified but will not be making the trip to Maui. Last year, this tournament debuted as an elevated event only to be rebranded this year as a signature event. Raising the stakes in terms of cash and FedEx Cup points to bring golf back on the radar right in week one makes all the sense in the world. Outside of the beautiful vistas, the tournament typically delivers in terms of exciting finishes. Two years ago, Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith traded blows down the stretch, with the 2022 Open Champion ultimately triumphing. Rahm enacted his revenge in 2023 thanks to a five-stroke blown lead by Collin Morikawa. Unfortunately, we won't get to see Rahm defend his title this year, as he is the newest member of the LIV Tour. Yet the best the PGA Tour has to offer, including Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, will still be in attendance.

Before we get into our picks for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. We have compiled the best bonus offers so that you can bet on these 2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions selections with more confidence this week.

Sentry Tournament of Champions: Course Preview

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Kapalua was designed by Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw in 1991, a design tandem we can familiarize with ahead of the upcoming 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. The iconic modern design duo are known for their minimalist philosophy and seamless knack for fitting their routings into the natural terrain has accounted for some of the great works in modern golf design.

Much of the reason we don't see a lot of Coore & Crenshaw courses on Tour is largely due to the fact they prioritize space and generally like to give players room to operate off the tee. It’s important to note that Kapalua also doubles as a resort course. Its primary purpose for construction was to accommodate resort guests, an antithetical philosophy from challenging Tour pros. Challenge is not what we will see this week, but that should not take away from our enjoyment of the event. Instead, we will still be treated to watching the best in the world make a comical amount of birdies and eagles in a beautiful setting, and sometimes, that can be just what the doctor ordered.

Kapalua plays as a par 73, measuring a hair under 7,600 yards, and while its length may be imposing on the scorecard, the course plays far shorter than that due to massive elevation changes. Players will see a tremendous amount of scoring opportunities, and last year’s greens in regulation percentage topped 80%, a full 18% higher than Tour average. This event is quite literally what we would define as a putting contest, and each of the last two years, Kapalua has single-handedly played as the easiest golf course on the PGA Tour. The name of the game this week will be capitalizing on scoring opportunities, and players will be able to make up for lackluster ball-striking with elite putting. The Coore and Crenshaw track is statistically one of the easiest ball-striking courses on the PGA Tour, but the undulating greens still present a challenge. Iron play remains key, but we will primarily looking to identify elite Bermuda-grass and slow green putters who raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions.

Kapalua Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass

Sentry Tournament of Champions: Outright Picks

Patrick Cantlay (+1600) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds

It pains me to say this, but this tournament is Patrick Cantlay's to lose. Kapalua requires very little tee-to-green skill, which in turn, increases the importance of putting. This plays right into Cantlay's hands. Of the elite players in the field, Cantlay is both the best overall putter and the biggest riser in easy scoring conditions. Of Cantlay's eight PGA Tour wins, five of them have come at 19 under par or lower. It should not come as a surprise that Cantlay has finished better than field average in all five appearances in Maui. Despite my concerns about him on Bermuda,

Cantlay has putted incredibly well at this track over the years, another sensible outcome given his elite lag putting skill. Cantlay also ranks top-seven in this field in birdies or better gained and par-five scoring. Scheffler, Hovland, and even Morikawa may be better ball-strikers than Cantlay, but this is the week to prioritize Cantlay's putting skill over all else. Every player in this field will be in the 75% greens in regulation range. Cantlay still possesses the flat-stick I trust the most.

Eric Cole (+6600) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds

Eric Cole is coming off one of the more impressive Fall swings in recent memory, and Kapalua is the perfect track for the 35-year-old journeyman to finally capitalize. Cole record four top-five finishes in five starts this Fall, and while enough time has passed that we should be operating under a clean slate, the California now travels to a course that should provide an ideal fit for his skill-set. The weakest aspect of Cole’s game is his driving ability, and last year, Kapalua ranked as the easiest off the tee golf course on the PGA Tour. The Coore and Crenshaw design is far more about approach play and putting, the two areas where Cole excels. Kapalua is also about capitalizing on birdie opportunities, and Cole has been the most prolific birdie-maker in this field over his last 50 rounds. He also ranks top-10 in easy scoring conditions, overall approach play, proximity from 200 yards plus, Bermuda-grass putting, lag putting, and slow green putting. I am sometimes hesitant to tout my model darling, as fits this perfect are often too good but to be true. Yet at this number, Cole is a must bet.

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