The Sentry Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Day and Kirk in the PGA Season Opener

The Sentry Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Day and Kirk in the PGA Season Opener

We are kicking off the sleepers and value picks for the PGA Tour in week one of the 2024 season.

A select field of the best performers from last year will peg it up in Hawaii as they look to win The Sentry, formerly known as The Sentry Tournament of Champions.

The PGA Tour will play out its first event since Jon Rahm defected to the LIV Tour, and he and Rory McIlroy are notable absences from an otherwise elite and all-encompassing field.

This leaves Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland as the two favorites coming into the week, and that promises to be a continuous theme throughout the season.

This is a low-scoring event and a relaxing way for the players to ease themselves into a new PGA Tour season - but who will come out on top?

Over the years, it has been the elite players that have won this event, with Harris English the biggest-priced winner in recent memory, at 33-1!

Check out the latest Sentry Tournament of Champions odds here where you will see the odds for every player in this limited field.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for The Sentry, check out the new DraftKings Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed, just for placing a $5 wager on your favorite golfer pre-event. So sign up now and win no matter what, with DraftKings.

What Skill Set is Required to Win The Sentry?

This is a course that is incredibly easy for the modern-day PGA Tour star, and there will be very little fear off the tee. This would typically lead you to believe that long hitters will prosper, but we have seen the likes of Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, and Harris English win here in recent years. Add in Patrick Reed contending on multiple occasions, and clearly, the more modest hitter can compete.

SG Approach - If a player has been dialed in with their wedges and short irons at the tail-end of 2023, look for that to continue here on what can turn into target golf. This is an easy test, which involves many great approach shots to set up the required number of birdies.

Bermuda Putting - Plenty of putts need to drop to win here and that is evidenced by the winner of this event ranking 1st in SG Putting in 3 of the last 5 renewals. The other two winners ranked 3rd and 13th. Justin Thomas is the only winner here since 2016 to rank outside the top 6 for SG Putting.

The Sentry Betting Trends

We have plenty of information to go by when it comes to this tournament and we have analyzed the last 12 renewals of this event to see if there are any trends to consider.

Top 30 in the OWGR essential? - Each of the last 12 winners of The Sentry has ranked inside the top 30 in the world rankings. Now that would go hand in hand with the tournament being exclusive to winners in the previous season in past renewals, and also those that made the FedEx Cup in recent years. It also suggests we should be focusing on the elites though. Several players have had great years, but can they mix it with the 30 best players in the world?

Youth is advantageous - 10 of the 12 winners were 33 or younger the year they won The Sentry. Is the undulating nature of this course too much for the older player, or is this just an event that favors the in-form recent winners?

Wins in the Bag a Must - 12 of the last 12 winners had already won three times in their career (including European and Korn Ferry wins) before winning the Sentry, or the "Tournament of Champions" as it was previously known.

A previous look is key - Each of the last 12 winners had played at Kapalua at least once before, before winning at this course. It's not quite Augusta, but it's clearly important to understand the nuances of this course, even if it's easy in the end!

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win The Sentry?

Here are the winning odds for every winner of this tournament since 2010.

2023 - Jon Rahm (+700)

2022 - Cameron Smith (+2500)

2021 - Harris English (+3500)

2020 - Justin Thomas (+550)

2019 - Xander Schauffele (+2200)

2018 - Dustin Johnson (+750)

2017 - Justin Thomas (+2200)

2016 - Jordan Spieth (+500)

2015 - Patrick Reed (+2200)

2014 - Zach Johnson (+1400)

In short, it looks like we might struggle to get a sleeper over the line this week. The biggest odds for a winner here in the past 10 years is Harris English at +3500, with +2200 the more general price for longer winners.

We do still think there are a couple of players that look good value at +4000 and above though.

Find these picks for The Sentry 2024 below.

Sleepers and Value Picks for The Sentry 2024

Here are my favorite picks at +4000 or bigger for The Sentry 2024.

Jason Day (+5000) (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 on Any Moneyline With FanDuel)

Jason Day found his way back into the winners' circle for the first time in 5 years in 2023, and it just so happens his -23 winning score was the lowest winning score in any of his individual wins.

That ability to go low at the Byron Nelson last year might be a sign of things to come, and as he walked away with a win at the Grant Thorton Invitational with Lydia Ko in December, it appears he's in good form.

Add to that an 11th place finish at the Hero World Challenge which promised to be a lot better, but for a final round 73, and you have a player that looked sharp towards the end of the 2023 calendar year.

He now returns to a course where he has finished 3rd at the peak of his powers and has two other top-10 finishes.

Day closed with a 62 when finishing 3rd in 2015 and in 2016 he also finished the week with a 65, so he clearly likes this place.

No, Jason Day is not playing the way he did when winning a major, a WGC, a Players Championship, and reaching World No.1 across 2015 and 2016, but he did show a lot of good signs in 2023, and he can kick this year off with a bang.

In a limited field of less than 60 players, I will take a shot on a rejuvenated Jason Day, who finished 2nd in his most recent major and has won within the past 12 months, especially at +5000.

Chris Kirk (+20000) (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 on Any Moneyline With FanDuel)

Chris Kirk might not be the first player that comes to mind when you think of a Sentry winner, but at +20000, I am going to take a shot to kick off 2024 with a big winner.

Kirk has excelled down the road at the Sony Open, where he has finished 2nd twice and inside the top 5 once more. This, in addition to a strong bank of course form, is what caught my eye.

It has been a long time, but when Kirk first played here, he finished 7th, and while his finishes since read 16th, 14th, and 24th, his round-by-round scores paint a positive picture.

On debut, Kirk finished 7th thanks to rounds of 66 on Friday and 67 on Sunday, and that was after opening with a 75 on Thursday.

On his next visit, Kirk was the 1st round leader after a round of 66 and he backed that up with another 68 on Saturday. Rounds of 75 and 73 that week derailed some good work. A year later, Kirk then opened with a 68 and closed with a 62, showing once again a very strong affinity for this course, even if not for four rounds.

Kirk returns a winner again, having won the 2023 Honda Classic, his 5th PGA Tour title, and if anyone is going to come from the triple-digit range, I think it could be Kirk.