The Genesis Invitational Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Scott, Clark at Riviera

The Genesis Invitational Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Scott, Hoge at Riviera

The WM Phoenix Open was delayed last week due to the weather, but they got the tournament done, and Canadian, Nick Taylor picked up another big win. This week Tiger Woods hosts another big event at Riviera, as we head back to California for the Genesis Invitational.

Rory McIlroy is back in the field this week, and joins world no.1, Scottie Scheffler at the top of the field, which makes for a strong betting event.

When it comes to making golf picks, we are always looking for the best value, and in order to find value like that, we depend on the best players in the field, and that will be the case this week.

While we won't be betting on Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, or even the likes of the in-form Sam Burns in this article, we do think we have found opportunities further down the odds board.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Genesis Invitational, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your first bet wins.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the Genesis Invitational?

We are finally back to a single-course event, and this means we only need to break down TPC Scottsdale, which quite frankly is a relief.

SG Approach - This is a true ball-striking examination, with four of the five winners ranking 6th or better in SG Approach the week they won at Riviera.

SG: Tee to Green - Yep, same again as last week. The last four winners have ranked inside the top 3 in SG Tee to Green and the other ranked 11th. Don't come to Riviera without your A-Game from tee to green.

Par 4 Scoring - Four of the last five winners ranked inside the top 5 for Par 4 Scoring the week they won the Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational Betting Trends

Here are common betting trends from the Genesis Invitational over the years.

Experienced Players Prosper - 12 of the last 12 winners have made 150 career starts before winning here. Could sensations such as Ludvig Aberg or Nick Dunlao change this? The trends suggest otherwise.

Previous Course Starts Essential - 12 of the last 12 winners have played here 2+ times before winning, so it is not somewhere where maidens have succeeded.

Top 10 Efforts an Indicator - 9 of the last 12 winners had finished 12th or better at Riviera, before winning the Genesis Invitational.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Genesis Invitational?

Here are the winning odds for every winner of the Genesis Invitational since 2012.

2023 - Jon Rahm (+800)

2022 - Joaquin Niemann (+5000)

2021 - Max Homa (+6000)

2020 - Adam Scott (+3300)

2019 - J.B. Holmes (+15000)

2018 - Bubba Watson (+5000)

2017 - Dustin Johnson (+900)

2016 - Bubba Watson (+2500)

2015 - James Hahn (+20000)

2014 - Bubba Watson (+3300)

2013 - John Merrick (+25000)

2012 - Bill Haas (+5000)

This has been a great event for longshots over the years, and sleepers and value picks have clearly prospered in recent renewals. The difference this time around is that the field is far smaller, and therefore odds are shorter in general.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Genesis Invitational

I wanted to pick just three this week, but there is one player at +20000 I don't want to pass up, so it's four again this week.

Adam Scott +4000 (FanDuel)

Adam Scott is playing consistent golf right now, and this has been a sustained period of form, so I think he is well worth chancing at +4000 at a course he has enjoyed over the years.

Scott is a two-time winner at this course, although one was shortened to 36 holes due to rain, so it doesn't count as an official win. In addition to these two wins, he's also finished 2nd twice and recorded multiple other top 10s.

In his last six starts, Scott has finished outside the top 10 just once, and that was a 20th-place finish at Pebble Beach, so he's clearly in elite form right now, which is good to see coming into this event.

Backing that up is his ball striking, which has seen him rank 17th, 12th, and 3rd in SG Approach and 18th, 8th, and 10th in his SG Tee to Green in his past three starts. This kind of long game cannot be ignored coming into an event that demands this sort of test.

At 40-1, Scott represents good value to get back in the winners' circle this week.

Wyndham Clark +4500 (FanDuel)

I went back and forth on Wyndham Clark, but in the end, I have decided that the +4500 on offer for this major champion is too good to pass up.

Clark enjoys Riviera and in general relishes classical tests, highlighted by his win at Quail Hollow. There has been a lot of crossover between the Wells Fargo and the Genesis Invitational, so that is a good sign in itself, but the fact Clark has backed it up here with solid showings makes things even better.

In three starts here, Clark has made the weekend on every occasion, finishing 17th, 8th, and 33rd and there have been flashes of form every time he's played this course. On debut, Clark was 2nd after the 1st and 2nd rounds, but fell away on the weekend, and a year later he finished 8th, where he was again higher placed after round 1 (4th) and round 2 (6th). Last year he could only finish 33rd, but he's in good form again and can post his career-best finish here.

Clark may have been fortunate that Pebble Beach was reduced to 54 holes, but he can now prove there is substance to his form, building on last week again, where he was 10th after 54 holes before a poor final round. His form has been built on strong ball striking, as he ranked 10th, 20th, and 11th in SG Approach and 5th, 7th, and 36th in Tee to Green in the last three starts.

Give this major champion a chance to impress again on a major-esque venue.

Tom Hoge +15000 (FanDuel)

I took a chance on Tom Hoge last week, based on his elite iron play and decent course form in Phoenix, and it is the same formula this week.

Hoge ranked 16th and 26th in Approach and Tee to Green respectively last week and his weekend rounds of 68 and 66 were enough to climb the Phoenix Open leaderboard. This should give him plenty of confidence, returning to a ball striker's paradise like Riviera.

He has made 4 of his 6 cuts here, and while his best finish is the 14th he posted last year, there have been signs of better over the years. Last year, he was 7th after round 1 and 6th after round 3, and I think he can stay in the mix longer this week. I will take the value on Hoge while it is still there.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +17000 (FanDuel)

I have gone full circle with Bezuidenhout, a player who for a long time I believed was overrated in the market. Now though, it seems to have gone the other way, and I don't think his consistency is being respected.

Bezuidenhout has finished 28th or better in 6 of his last 7 starts, and only one missed cut interrupts a solid run. That came on Torrey Pines where big hitters prosper, so it doesn't faze me that he struggled there.

In his last three made cuts, Bezuidenhout ranked 2nd, 7th, and 10th in SG Approach, and 13th, 26th, and 19th in Tee to Green, so from a long-game perspective, he is playing some of his most consistent golf.

This is a test that demands confidence and elite ball striking, and Bezuidenhout offers both in abundance right now, so we should take a chance on a player who is clearly finding his feet at this level.

He has played here twice before, which helps him fit the trends above, even if he's enjoyed very limited success so far, making the weekend just once.