2024 Genesis Invitational First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Finau For a Hot Start

2024 Genesis Invitational First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back Finau For a Hot Start

The Genesis Invitational is one of the most historic events on the PGA Tour, hosted by the greatest of all time, Tiger Woods. Sun Day Red aside, Woods hosting and playing in this event is a big lift for the Tour, and it is an exciting event.

We return to California, after one week away in Phoenix, and we are looking for those players who can start the fastest in this week's event.

Riviera Country Club has proven a tough test over the years, and some players take a few years to figure it out, but who has shown signs of leading this event in Round 1?

Is there a strategy that can help us cut down the field at this week's Genesis Invitational? Let's find out below.

Click here for the latest Genesis Invitational odds

Genesis Invitational First Round Leader Strategy

In terms of favorable tee times, it has been equally split over the years, with 4 of the 8 leaders/co-leaders teeing off in the morning, and the other 4 in the afternoon.

• 2023 – Max Homa (7:46 am #10 Tee), Keith Mitchell (11:31 am #1 Tee) - 64
• 2022 - Joaquin Niemann (7:24 am #1 Tee) - 63
• 2021 – Sam Burns (11:10 am #1 Tee) - 64
• 2020 – Matt Kuchar (7:48 am #1 Tee) - 64
• 2019 – J.B Holmes (9:24 am #10 Tee) - 63
• 2018 – Patrick Cantlay (12:02 pm #1 Tee), Tony Finau (12:02 pm #10 Tee) - 66

There doesn't seem to be any favorable wave one way or another when it comes to first round leaders here, so make your picks without fear of the weather interfering.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 67.91 – Low Opening Round – 63 (Travelers Championship)
• Adam Scott (2nd Overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 68.50 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers Championship)
• Ludvig Aberg (3rd overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.54) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
• Xander Schauffele (4th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.62) – Low Opening Round – 62 (US Open)
• Viktor Hovland (5th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.86) – Low Opening Round – 64 (RBC Heritage)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

The average Round 1 score here over the past 6 years is 64, and if your chosen golfer hits that number, you should feel confident of a return here.

The Favorites in the First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the Genesis Invitational.

• Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
• Rory McIlroy (+1800)
• Viktor Hovland (+2200)
• Xander Schauffele (+2200)
• Collin Morikawa (+2800)

2024 Genesis Invitational First Round Leader Picks

Here are my picks for the 2024 Genesis Invitational, as I look at four players who I think can make a hot start at Riviera.

Tony Finau +3500 (DraftKings)

Tony Finau is threatening to contend in a golf tournament, as his ball striking continues to heat up, and I think he can find a hot putter to start this tournament fast, based on his course history.

Finau has led after round 1 in the past here and also sat 3rd at the end of the day the following year, so I believe Finau can find another low one here. Recently, he's struggled to find a low opening round here, but I am confident he will get back to what he produced in 2018 and 2019.

2nd and 10th in SG Approach and 2nd and 6th in SG Tee to Green in his past two events, Finau is firing in the area of his game he excels in the most, and that's normally a sign of things to come.

31 times in his career, Finau has ended the day within two of the first round lead, and 8 of those were first round leads. He enjoys a Thursday.

Finau tees off at 10:25 am with Brendon Todd and Jason Day.

Cameron Young +4000 (Bet365)

Cameron Young is hitting the ball well off the tee again, ranking 5th, 10th, and 5th in his last three events, and that is a key indicator he's playing well again. He also hit his irons for two of the four rounds last week, which is a bonus as well.

Since 2021, Young has led after Round 1 six times in his career, across three different tours, and he's also been within two of the lead a further 8 times.

Young sat 2nd here in 2022 when he was three strokes behind wire-to-wire winner, Joaquin Niemann, and with two opening rounds of 66 and 68 here, it seems he's settled into life at Riviera very quickly.

Playing well and hitting it nicely off the tee, I can see Young making a quick start in California again.

Young tees off at 8:44 am with Adam Hadwin and Cam Davis.

Emiliano Grillo +7000 (Bet365)

Emiliano Grillo has enjoyed a solid start to 2024, and with low rounds in almost every tournament so far this year, he is reminding us of the scoring prowess he has shown throughout his career.

He might not have set the world alight here consistently, but after missing his first two cuts here, Grillo has since finished 21st and 67th, with a 3rd round 65 in 2022 and an opening 68 last year the highlights.

So far in 2024, Grillo has shot rounds of 66 (7th after round 1 at Sentry), rounds of 66-63-66 at the Sony, was inside the top 10 after the first two rounds of the Farmers, and then also closed with a 63 last week.

Grillo has hit the ball really well in 2 of his last 3 starts, particularly on approach, and I think he's worth siding with in this market.

He has posted 5 first round leads in his career, but he has also been within two of the first round lead 36 times in total, so he's well known to start fast.

Grillo tees off at 7:56 am with Russell Henley and Sungjae Im.