Houston Open Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Alex Noren, Stephan Jaeger Impress in Texas?
The PGA Tour returns to Texas for the Texas Children’s Houston Open this week. Can Alex Noren and Stephan Jaegar impress in Texas? Andy Lack shares his Houston Open betting picks and predictions.
Andy Lack - March 25, 2024, 10:00 AM EDT
10 minHouston Open Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Alex Noren, Stephan Jaeger Impress in Texas?
The PGA Tour returns to Texas for the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park. This event has moved around courses and on the calendar multiple times, but we will be returning to Memorial Park for the third consecutive year. The first three tournaments at Memorial Park were held in November during the PGA Tour’s fall swing, so will be treated to slightly different course conditions with the event now held in late March.
While many of the PGA Tour’s best players will be turning their attention to the upcoming Masters, golf fans will get to see Scottie Scheffler one final time before he tees it up at Augusta. Scheffler will be looking to notch his third consecutive PGA Tour victory, and his second career victory in his home state of Texas. While all eyes will be on the reigning Players Championship winner, Wyndham Clark, Will Zalatoris, Jason Day, Sahith Theegala, and defending Houston Open champion, Tony Finau, headline an intriguing crop of challengers.
Houston Open DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 28 - March 31, 2024
- Where: Houston, TX
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
Houston Open: Course Preview
Memorial Park
Sitting just inside Houston proper, Memorial Park remains one of the best municipal golf courses in the country. The John Bredemus design hosts over 60,000 rounds a year at an affordable price, yet some major changes were in order for the golf course to stand up to the modern pro game. In 2019, Tom Doak was hired by Houston Astros owner, Jim Crane, to give the course a total facelift. Doak added far more movement to the fairways, and remodeled many of the green complexes as well, removing bunkers and greenside rough in exchange for closely mown collection areas, which encourage short game skill and creativity.
The course itself is one of the longest and most difficult tracks on Tour, playing as a par 70 and measuring 7,419 yards. Memorial Park plays even longer than the scorecard suggests, as it features five par threes, a drivable par four, and three par fives. The three years that it has hosted this event, it has ranked as the ninth, tenth, and 11th toughest course on the PGA Tour. Yet it is important to note that course conditions will be altered this year with the schedule change. Memorial Park may play even more challenging in March than it has in November, as Spring is generally a drier time of year in Houston. The trio of par fives play as one of the hardest sets of par fives on Tour, and none feature over a 35% birdie rate. In fact, all three par fives feature over a 5% bogey rate, which is incredibly rare on the PGA Tour. Five of the par fours measure over 490 yards, and they rank as five of the six toughest holes on the course. All feature over a 22% bogey rate.
Similar to Innisbrook, Memorial Park features tight fairways with thicker rough, but barely any water hazards. The Doak design ranks bottom 10 on the PGA Tour in penalty strokes per round, yet still features one of the highest bogey rates on Tour. There is nothing tricked up about this golf course, yet similar to tracks such as Riviera or Southern Hills, Memorial Park properly tests all skills. Middle to long iron play still reigns supreme, but there is really no aspect of a player's game that can be completely subpar to win. Either incredibly long or straight driving is an important first step. Elite long iron play, both out of the fairway and the rough is crucial. Creativity and touch around the greens is tremendously important, and lag putting and the ability to read some of the most challenging greens on Tour is also of the upmost importance.
Houston Open Key Stats
- Proximity 200 yards plus
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Approach Putting
Houston Open: Outright Picks
Alex Noren (+4500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Cognizant Classic and Players Championship, Alex Noren is really starting to hit his groove. The Swede gained over 2.5 strokes ball-striking in both starts, and he now returns to a golf course that he finished fourth at in his most recent appearance. Noren possesses one of the best short games in the world, and he is a top-10 lag putter in this field as well. Confidently navigating Tom Doak’s devious green complexes will be paramount this week in Houston, and there are few players that I trust more than Noren to yield an advantage. What’s even more encouraging is that Noren is striking the ball well above baseline right now as well. Chipping and putting have always been Noren’s strength, but the ball-striking comes and goes. Now that both of his irons and driver are trending in the right direction, Noren may finally break through on Tour for his first victory.
Stephan Jaeger (+5000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Stephan Jaeger has quietly developed into one of the most well-rounded players on Tour, and he is always a threat on long iron intensive golf courses that emphasize short game and carry distance. Jaeger’s two best finishes of the season came at Torrey Pines and Vidanta Vallarta, which both fit a similar profile. Given the importance of around the green play and lag putting, Memorial Park should be even more conducive to what Jaeger does best. The most difficult aspect of the Doak design is navigating the heavily undulated green complexes, and Jaeger has gained over 3.5 strokes around the green in both of his appearances at Memorial Park, where he finished 35th and ninth. The German also ranks top-25 in this field in carry distance, proximity from 200 yards plus, recent around the green play, and strokes gained around the green on Bermuda courses. Coming off a disappointing missed cut at the Players Championship where he still gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, there’s a tremendous buy low opportunity on Stephan Jaeger this week.
GOLF ODDS
